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Why Blodget's Economic Fix Is Wrong
- Written by Diana Furchtgott-Roth | Monday, August 27, 2012
You might be one of the greatest investment analysts of all time, but your article “How to Fix the Economy…In One Simple Chart” shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the causes of America’s economic problems. Can we talk?
Sure, your thesis is simple and appealing. America’s slow growth is caused by increasing inequality that prevents low-income individuals from consuming. If they can’t consume, firms can’t sell their products. Your solution? Firms should raise employees’ earnings so they can spend more and bring the economy back to prosperity.
But by many measures inequality in America has not increased. And employees’ total compensation has risen steadily over the past 30 years. Finally, top earners are paying an increasingly larger share of taxes at the same time as transfers to the bottom quintiles are increasing.
Take inequality. You write, citing data from University of California (Berkeley) economist Emmanuel Saez: “Most American consumers are strapped or broke because most of the income gains in the past 30 years have gone to the top 10%.”
But looking at spending power per person, economic inequality is no greater now than it was in the 1980s. The effective purchasing power of those with the least cash income is augmented by food stamps, rent supplements, Medicaid-funded health care, subsidized school lunches, and other social programs.
On a per-person basis, Labor Department data show that in 2010, households in the top fifth of the income distribution spent 2.4 times the amount spent by the bottom fifth. That was about the same as 25 years ago. There is no increase in per-person spending inequality. In addition, the overall level of inequality is remarkably small. A person moving from the bottom fifth to the top fifth can expect to increase spending by only 140 percent.
Compared with 1985, the big winners are the bottom fifth group, whose per person spending levels increased by 6.5 percent in real terms. In contrast, spending per person in the top fifth of income earners increased by 1.5 percent.
Spending is vital because it is the principal determinant of standard of living. It influences confidence in the future. It shows more comprehensively than cash income how much purchasing power individuals and families have. In sum, spending inequality provides a more meaningful measure of well-being than cash inequality.This shows that even though the income spread from top to bottom might be larger, those at the bottom are doing better than they did 25 years ago because they have greater spending power, after adjusting for inflation. This is important for the bottom fifth—economically, socially, psychologically.
Some increase in perceived inequality since the 1980s is due to the Tax Reform Act of 1986, which lowered top individual income-tax rates from 50 percent to 28 percent. This led to more income being reported on the individual, rather than corporate, tax schedules.
In addition, the composition of households has changed over the past 30 years. Women have moved into the workforce in record numbers, and there are more two-earner couples at the top of the income scale and more one-person households at the bottom, including students and retirees.
When two individuals get married, if both have worked and continue to work, they comprise a household with higher earnings—and the measured distribution of income in society widens. There are more such households now than in the 1980s. In 2010, 58 percent of married couples were in the top two quintiles, and only 7 percent of married-couple families were in the lowest quintile.
If you want to reduce inequality, Mr. Blodget, the simplest way would be to allow only one member of the household to work. It’s two-earner couples who are pumping up the incomes of the top fifth of the distribution. The CEOs and the star athletes are just a tiny fraction, outliers on a massive bell curve. The real culprits are two-earner couples.
And higher divorce rates and a greater share of babies born to unwed mothers have resulted in more single-head-of-household families at the bottom fifth of the income scale. This is a cultural tragedy which cannot be solved by employers raising wages.
You complain that “average hourly earnings in America (adjusted for inflation) have not increased in ~50 years.” But average hourly earnings don’t include benefits such as vacation, sick leave, health insurance, and pension plans, which have substantially increased over the past half century.
The Labor Department’s Employment Cost Index, which measures employees’ total compensation beginning in 1981, shows that average real compensation has grown by more than 20 percent over the past 30 years. Everyone is better off—even though some might prefer more take-home pay than benefits—but some, mostly those pesky two-earner couples, are better off than others.
You cite tax cuts for upper income earners as a cause of increased inequality. But the share of federal taxes paid by the top one percent and top five percent have grown steadily from the early 1980s, even as their tax rates declined, Congressional Budget Office data show.
The truth is that our personal income tax system no longer raises revenues from many, if not most, American households. This is a dramatic change over the past few decades.
In 1979 only the lowest fifth had a zero percent share of income tax. By 2009, the lowest two fifths not only made no contribution to income tax revenue, they actually received individual income tax transfers.
In 1979, the middle three fifths contributed 35 percent of federal individual income tax payments. Now, the same group contributes 13 percent. In contrast, the share of individual tax payments of the top fifth has risen from 65 percent in 1979 to 94 percent in 2009.
Your conclusion is a call for employers to take “a few percentage points of your record profits and use it to hire more employees and pay your existing employees more.” That way, you say, employees will spend more money and corporations will have higher revenues and profits.
Firms and households don’t know what their tax rates will be in four months. They could remain the same, or they could rise dramatically as the past decade’s tax rates expire. Such uncertainty prevents firms from hiring and households from spending.It’s unfortunate that Congress and the administration have taken multiple steps to ensure that businesses, large and small, hire fewer rather than more workers and give them lower take-home pay. Recall when Boeing opened its new plant in South Carolina, the National Labor Relations Board tried for months to close it down, at a cost of millions of dollars to both the taxpayer and Boeing.
Beginning in 2014, firms that do not offer the right kind of health insurance and who have more than 49 employees will have to pay $2,000 per worker per year. That comes out of employees’ cash wages, leaving less to spend to stimulate the economy.
Those who encourage the government to require firms to provide sick leave, paid vacation and maternity leave, and other benefits, are just forcing down the take-home wage—because these benefits have to come from somewhere. Some employees would prefer more cash to these benefits.
And if the employee makes minimum wage, he’ll probably lose his job, because the $2,000 tax will make it unprofitable for employers to hire him. That’s another unemployed worker to add to the 12.8 million America has now.
Mr. Blodget, millions of Americans need meaningful jobs, but how can you expect companies to hire and pay more when the government is giving them every incentive to do the opposite?
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Fox 26: The Disconnect Between The Market & Economy
In an exlusive interview on Fox 26 with Jose Grinon and Melissa Wilson discussing the disconnect between the financial markets and the real economy. I recently discussed this idea in much greater detail in an article entitled "The Great Disconnect: Markets Vs. Economy" wherein I stated:
"So, while the markets have surged to "all-time highs" - for the majority of Americans who have little, or no, vested interest in the financial markets their view is markedly different. While the mainstream analysts and economists keep hoping with each passing year that this will be the year the economy comes roaring back - the reality is that all the stimulus and financial support available from the Fed, and the government, can't put a broken financial transmission system back together again. Eventually, the current disconnect between the economy and the markets will merge. My bet is that such a convergence is not likely to be a pleasant one."
Weak wage growth, elevated levels of unemployment, and rising prices for food and energy continue to chip away at the fabric of the American economy even though the Fed continues to inflate asset prices further. The reality is that we are like inflating the next asset bubble as I discussed in early March of this year:
Don’t misunderstand me. As we wrote last week - it is certainly conceivable that the markets could attain all-time highs. The speculative appetite combined with the Fed’s liquidity is a powerful combination in the short term. However, the increase in speculative risks combined with excess leverage leave the markets vulnerable to a sizable correction at some point in the future.
The only missing ingredient for such a correction currently is simply a catalyst to put "fear" into an overly complacent marketplace. There is currently no shortage of catalysts to pick from whether it is further fiscal policy missteps stemming from the upcoming "Debt Ceiling" debate, a resurgence of the Eurozone crisis, or an unexpected shock from an area yet to be on our radar.
In the long term it will ultimately be the fundamentals that drive the markets. Currently, the deterioration in the growth rate of earnings, and economic strength, are not supportive of the speculative rise in asset prices or leverage. The idea of whether, or not, the Federal Reserve, along with virtually every other central bank in the world, are inflating the next asset bubble is of significant importance to investors who can ill afford to once again lose a large chunk of their net worth.
It is all reminiscent of the market peak of 1929 when Dr. Irving Fisher uttered his now famous words: "Stocks have now reached a permanently high plateau." The clamoring of voices that the bull market is just beginning is telling much the same story. History is repleat with market crashes that occurred just as the mainstream belief made heretics out of anyone who dared to contradict the bullish bias.
Does an asset bubble currently exist? Ask anyone and they will tell you "NO." However, maybe it is exactly that tacit denial which might just be an indication of its existence.
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- • Housing Starts Up - Patient Still Critical
- • NAHB Housing Market Index
- • A Little Followed Indicator Hints At Recess...
- • Inflation Pressures Rising In The Core
- • Economic Deluge - Economy Shows Some Positi...
- • Is The Gold Run Over?
- • Import Prices Jump - Recession Odds Increas...
- • NFIB - Bounce Off The Bottom
- • No Holiday Cheer In Retail Sales
- • A Million Dollars Ain't What It Used To Be
- • STA RIsk Ratio Turns Up - We've Seen This B...
- • Consumer Sentiment Ticks Up
- • What Are Initial Claims Not Telling Us?
- • Is Consumer Spending Really Surging?
- • Could Gasoline Prices Trigger A Recession
- • Market Rallies Into EU Meeting
- • ISM Composite Index Ticks Up
- • The Real Employment Situation Report
- ► November (29)
- • Economic Data - Headlines Bullish
- • Markets Surge As World Engages In Global Ba...
- • Was That The Consumer's Last Gasp?
- • Housing - The Margin Effect
- • Economic "Run Down" - Weakness Emerges
- • GDP - Revised Down
- • Is Market Warning Of The Next Lehman Event?
- • EOCI Index Improves - Is It All Clear?
- • Philly Fed Survey - Predicting A Peak In Ea...
- • US Debt To GDP Now 98.9% And Rising
- • Inflation - A Continued Problem For Consume...
- • Economy Shows Tenative Signs Of Improvement
- • Debate - Is US Becoming Japan
- • Presidential And Decennial Cycles - What Ab...
- • Consumer Sentiment Driven By Market Rally
- • Net Export Prices Turn Down
- • What "Average Joe" Really Thinks
- • Blood Bath As Italy Faces Crisis
- • Are Oil Prices Confirming ECRI Recession Ca...
- • Oil Price Spike Update
- • No Joy In NFIB Report
- • Market Vs Economic Cycles And Sector Rotati...
- • Employment - The Good, Bad & Ugly
- • ISM Non-Manufacturing Index - Not Adding Up
- • Productivity Up - Costs Down
- • Fed's Outlook Much Weaker Than Reported
- • Food Stamp Usage Sets New Record
- • Fed Trapped By Inflation
- • Manufacturing Not Showing GDP Strength
- ► October (24)
- • STA Risk Ratio Turns Up
- • Buy Signal Is In - But Move Slowly
- • Recession Still Likely Despite Bump In GDP
- • A Haircut, Boost and Drop
- • New Homes Sales - Glued To The Bottom
- • Consumer Is Key To Next Recession
- • Case-Shiller 20-City Index Flat As HARP Wil...
- • CFNAI - Better But Still Negative
- • Understanding Federal Debt: Point - Counter...
- • Temporary Bounce In Philly Fed Confirmed By...
- • Inflation Rises Along With Housing Hopes
- • Snipe Hunting In The Housing Market
- • Der Spiegel is Der Wrong
- • Inventories, Sentiment and Sales - Behind T...
- • The Empire Is Tarnished
- • A JOLT To The System
- • NFIB and PCI - More Signs Of Weakness
- • 1929-45 Vs Today - Following The Same Path
- • Unemployment Report Worse Than It Looks
- • Bearish Sentiment Abounds
- • ISM Composite Index - Been Here Before
- • Yield Spread Confirming Recession Call
- • Market Breaks Its Neck
- • ISM Manufacturing Index - Backlog Drawdown ...
- ► September (34)
- • 5 Months Down - Time For A Bounce?
- • Economic Trifecta - But No Winners
- • Economy Upticks & Jobless Claims Fall
- • Gallup - Economic Confidence Slides
- • Can Margin Debt Give Us A Clue On Market Di...
- • Euro Tarp - Why It Will Be A Screaming Fail...
- • Consumer Doldrums
- • Chicago Fed National Activity "Slowing Down...
- • End Of Week Technical Wrap Up
- • The Yield Spread Is Lying About The Coming ...
- • Leading Indicators Predict Weaker Economy
- • Why The Fed's "Silver Bullet" Won't Kill Th...
- • Fed Buy's Paltry $ 400 Billion - Need A Hug...
- • Market Weak - Waiting On The Fed
- • Housing Still A Drag
- • Consumer Confidence Remains At Lowest Level...
- • Coordinated Central Bank Intervention Creat...
- • Philly Fed Survey - Predicting Recession
- • CPI Rises - Inflation Hits Home
- • Consumers Tapping Out Savings To Spend
- • PPI - Pushing A Slowdown
- • NFIB Confidence Slides Lower
- • Export Prices Still A Negative For The Econ...
- • The Great American Economic Lie
- • High Yield Spread Signaling Recession
- • The Economy Weakens More
- • Obama's $ 400 Billion For Jobs And Counting
- • Trade Deficit - Points To Possible Uptick I...
- • Another Domino Falls For The Market
- • Corporate Profits Are In Trouble
- • Are Stocks Undervalued?
- • European Markets Down Sharply
- • Jobs - What Jobs?
- • Why Unemployment Is About To Surge
- ► August (38)
- • Market Bounce OR New Bull Market
- • Chicago ISM Confirms Weakness
- • Consumer Confidence Collapses - Again
- • Personal Incomes Still Under Pressure
- • Annotated Bernanke Speech - The Elusive Eco...
- • Corporate Profits - Hinting At Recession
- • GDP - Revised Down
- • The Deficit Spending Trap
- • Will Ben Go For Another Round Of QE?
- • Boomers - Are Going To Be A Real Drag
- • No Job = No New House
- • Beware Of Long Term Investing Advice
- • Technical Market Overview
- • EOCI Index Now At Recession Levels
- • Composite Inflation Index Warning Of Slower...
- • 7 Things That Make Me Worried
- • The Difference Between "WHAT" and "WHEN"
- • Empire Fed Index - 3 Strikes You're Out
- • Rosenberg On The Economy
- • Consumer Confidence Collapses
- • Trade Deficit Points To Sub-1% 2nd Qtr GDP
- • 7 Things My Mom Taught Me About Investing
- • Blood In The Streets - Part II
- • Ceridian UCLA Consumer Pulse - Going Flatli...
- • Market Bounce - Was It Stealth QE3?
- • FOMC Meeting Ends - No Change To Stance
- • NFIB Survey Says...Higher Taxes Won't Work
- • Panic Attack! Markets Extremely Oversold
- • Employment Report Less Than Meets The Eye
- • Market Trashed Again! Panic Hits.
- • Recession Almost A Certainty
- • QE 3 Coming - But Won't Save The Economy
- • Yield Curves & The Fed Model
- • ISM Composite Index - Continues Decline
- • Market Trashed - What Now?
- • Personal Income Under Pressure
- • ISM - Clinging On For Dear Life
- • Debt Deal - A Complete Failure
- ► July (38)
- • We Are All Guessing
- • Dismal Economic Numbers
- • 10 Lessons Learned From Poker
- • STA Risk Ratio - Still On Sell Signal
- • GDP - 2nd Quarter Estimate
- • Consumer Un-Confidence
- • Are We Headed For A Second Recession? Upda...
- • Chicago Fed National Activity Index Confirm...
- • Decline In Profits Leads Index
- • EOC Index Shows Economic Weakness
- • Help Wanted - Not So Much
- • Existing Home Sales - A Resumption Of Decli...
- • Housing Starts - Bouncing Along The Bottom
- • You Can't Have A Jobless Recovery
- • NAHB Housing Index - No Signs Of Life
- • Commentary: A Default Would Devastate D.C.-...
- • Tax Reform -The Overlooked Solution
- • Empire Index - Harbinger Of Bad Things To C...
- • Consumers Believe It's Really A Recession
- • Inflation Index Flashes Warning
- • Bernanke Gives US Congress "The Finger"
- • Retail Sales & Jobless Claims
- • Why The Trade Deficit Is Warning Of Weak GD...
- • QE 3 - "To Infinity And Beyond"
- • No Fear - That's Not A Good Thing
- • More Fed Stimulus - As Expected
- • NFIB - No Jobs For You
- • Why Economists Don't Have A Clue About Jobs
- • Raising Taxes Won't Raise Revenue
- • Why The Jobs Report Is Worse Than It Seems
- • Why Oil Price Spikes "Feel" Worse
- • The Average Investor Doesn't Stand A Chance
- • How To Just Get By On Food Stamps
- • Jobless Still Jobless- Teens Hired For The ...
- • ISM Composite Index Showing Contraction
- • Outperforming The Market By 30% With No Ris...
- • ISM Report - Little To Be Excited About
- • Greenspan - QE Was A Failure
- ► June (38)
- • Market Failed At Resistance - Now What?
- • Full Employment - Hope vs Reality
- • Existing Home Sales Reflect Balance Sheet R...
- • Myths Of Retirement Planning
- • Implications Of Household Debt Deleveraging
- • LEI Warning Of Economic Stumbling Economy
- • Greece Ripple Effects Could Create US Finan...
- • Consumer Confidence Falls
- • Economy Failing Right On Time
- • New Home Starts - It's The Job Market Stupi...
- • Composite Price Index - Pushing Upper Limit...
- • Empire Composite Index Signals Economic Con...
- • PPI - Ratio Pointing To Economic Weakness
- • NFIB Employment Expectations Dispells 5% Ec...
- • Trade Deficit - A Roadmap To Economic Stren...
- • How Far Might A Bounce Go?
- • What Is Really Driving The Weakness In The ...
- • Obama Says He Has No Fear Of A Double Dip
- • NYSE Margin Debt
- • Beranke Speech - A Prelude To QE 3
- • Don't Get Suckered!
- • QE3 - Just A Matter Of Time
- • Job Report Shocker
- • Where's My Bottom
- • STA Risk Ratio Indicator Update - Still Cor...
- • ISM Composite Index Confirmed Market Top
- • Not The American Dream I Was Told About
- • Never Buy Stocks Again? Seriously?
- • Where Is The Confidence?
- • ISM Manufacturing Report Hits The Brakes
- • A Weaker Dollar Equals A Weaker Economy
- • Market Bounce
- • SF Bay Bridge - "Made In China"
- • Consumer Confidence At Recession Levels
- • The Decline Of The American "Saver"
- • Greece Fire - NY Post
- • The Breaking Point
- • Financial Profits Reduce Economic Prosperit...
- ► May (32)
- • Consumer Confidence Falls
- • Slide In Corporate Profits - Part II
- • Personal Incomes Still Feeding The Gas Tank
- • Change In Corporate Profits Leads To Market...
- • Economic Surprises - The Wrong Kind
- • New Orders For Durable Goods - Another Nail...
- • STA Buy/Sell Indicator Flashes Sell Signal
- • New Home Sales Not Inspiring
- • STA Economic Output Index Takes A Plunge
- • Debt To GDP And A Sustainable Level
- • The Virtuous Cycle Of The Economy
- • Economy Shifting Into Slower Gear
- • 7 Impossible Trading Rules To Follow
- • Housing Starts Fall - Again
- • Cyclical Bull Markets In Secular Bear Marke...
- • Empire Manufacturing Index
- • More Inflation For Consumers!
- • Headline Inflation Pushing Up
- • Weakness In GDP Continues (X-M)
- • Small Business Optimism Getting Worse!
- • Import Prices Flashing Warning Signal
- • Home Prices Following The Path To Destructi...
- • The Hyperinflation Index
- • Unemployment Rate Climbs To 9.0%
- • The Link Between Productivity & Jobs
- • Commodities Stumble
- • Jobless Claims Jump
- • ISM Composite Index vs S&P 500
- • ADP & ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Have A Lo...
- • Gallup: More Than Half Of Americans Still S...
- • "Let Them Eat IPads"
- • Have We Seen The Peak In This Business Cycl...
- ► April (22)
- • Fallacy Of The Falling Dollar
- • 1.8% GDP Not So Great!
- • Bernanke's Folly - High Oil Prices Are Flee...
- • Consumer Confidence - STILL Not So Confiden...
- • Tracking The Next Gasoline Induced Recessio...
- • New Home Sales Tick Up
- • STA Risk Ratio Throwing Off Warning Signal
- • The Philly Fed Survery Says....#&^%@!!
- • Americans Receive MORE In Government Handou...
- • NYSE Margin Debt Reaching Danger Zone
- • Housing Starts Not Starting
- • Pitchfork and Torches For The Rich
- • S&P Downgrades US Credit Outlook To Negativ...
- • Why You Can't Invest For The "Long Term"
- • Jobless Claims & PPI - Not Looking Better
- • Who Pays The Taxes!
- • Retail Sales Confirms Consumer Weakness
- • Gallop Poll Confirms NFIB Index - Economy S...
- • Small Business Still Not Optomistic
- • Trade Deficit Narrows - But Not In A Good W...
- • NYSE Margin Debt Climbs
- • High Commodity Prices Not The Result Of The...
- ► December (22)





