King Report - Monday Squwak Box 08/06/12
- Written by Bill King | Monday, August 06, 2012
Asian bourses got trashed on Friday. But just before Europe opened (5.5 hours before Jobs Report) another dubious story about ECB bond buying, appeared. This provoked the desired buying of stocks.
The other provocation for the big rally is a story about the EFSF that appeared just after the NYSE open (probably circulated around Europe before its open) that suggests that Spain will be bailed out.
So traders manically covered shorts and went long stocks, gold and oil in expectation that a bailout of Spain could appear over the weekend.
The bailout appeared late Friday night (early Saturday in Europe); but it was Greece, not Spain.
ECB saves Greece from bankruptcy by securing emergency loans-paper
The European Central Bank (ECB) has saved Greece from bankruptcy for the time being by securing it interim financing in the form of additional emergency loans from the Bank of Greece, German newspaper Die Welt said on Saturday.
The ECB’s Governing Council agreed at its meeting on Thursday to increase the upper limit for the amount of Greek short-term loans the Bank of Greece can accept in exchange for emergency loans, the newspaper said in an advance copy of the article due to appear in its Saturday edition…
The move should enable the Greek government to access up to an extra 4 billion euros of funds…
Merkel’s Coalition Members Signal Acceptance of ECB Bond-Buying The envisaged move to purchase troubled euro states’ government bonds is “a wise middle way” to solve the region’s debt crisis, Elmar Brok, a member of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party, told Deutschlandfunk radio today.
Norbert Barthle, CDU budget spokesman, said that German lawmakers will have veto rights over bond purchases by the euro- area’s rescue funds, which would operate in tandem with the ECB under Draghi’s proposal. The temporary fund “was created for a purpose and bond-buying is in the manual,” Barthle said yesterday by phone. With Merkel on vacation for another week and parliament in summer recess, there was no official government reaction to Draghi’s announcement…
[This dubious report was debunked on Saturday. Stories on page 5]
EFSF requests bank proposals for loan facilities
The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) has contacted members of its banking group for proposals on a series of credit facilities, the euro rescue fund said. Banks confirmed they had received a request on Friday for a repurchase facility, following earlier requests for uncommitted unsecured and committed secured loans over the last weeks. An EFSF spoksperson said the credit facility would create a short-term liquidity buffer… [Traders assumed this means Spain is about to get a bailout.]
Spain inches towards a full EU bailout Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy inched closer on Friday to asking for an EU bailout for his country, but said he needed first to know what conditions would be attached and what form the rescue would take.
We opined that the July Employment Report could be better than expected due to political reasons. That’s what transpired; so there is no reason for a QE 3.0 announcement at the Sept. 13 FOMC.
Fictitious jobs from the Birth/Death Model soared to 52k. For July 2011, the number was 5k; in July 2010 it was -38k. For July 2009 it was -10k. http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm
The fact that the July 2012 B/D Models jobs are double the previous record for July (25k in 2008) illustrates just how risible the July B/D gains are. http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbdhst.htm
Here is the history of July B/D jobs since the model went dynamic in 1999:
1999 -6k; 2000 (election year) +11k, 2001 -13k, 2002 -61k, 2003 -83k, 2004 -80k, 2005 -72k, 2006 +21k, 2007 +3k, 2008 (election year) +25k, 2009 -10k, 2010 -38k, 2011 (prelim) +5k
The average B/D Jobs for July is a loss of 22.5k. Big anomalies occur in election years.
The Washington Post, citing a NFIB report refutes the record B/D jobs in July: Summer slump: Small businesses continued shedding workers in July
The nation’s smallest firms trimmed their staffs ever so slightly over the past few months, losing an average of 0.04 workers per company, according to a report released Thursday by the National Federation of Independent Business. While that’s not quite as big of a hit as the 0.11 workers they reported losing in June, this marks the second consecutive month in the red after six straight of flat or increased employment.http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/on-small-business/summer-slump-small-businesses-continued-shedding-workers-in-july/2012/08/02/gJQAkDCiSX_story.html?wpisrc=nl_headlines
Manufacturing created 25k jobs but 13k jobs were derived from non-furloughed workers. There is also an ancillary jobs boost in related manufacturing due to the non-furloughed for political reasons workers.
The Household Survey shows a loss of 195 jobs. 31k part time jobs appeared; so full time employment declined about 226k…The Employment/Population Ratio declined 0.2% to 58.4%. This result is in harmony with Gallup and Rasmussen July employment polling.
We occasionally highlight the reasons for the discrepancies between the Household Survey and the Establishment Survey (CES/ NFP). The biggest reason is that the Household Survey includes workers that do not actually receive a paycheck and those that aren’t at work for various reasons. If one worked one hour in the surveyed period, they are considered ‘employed’. So the Household Survey should show more employment than the Establishment (NFP) Survey.
The BLS: People are classified as employed if they did any work at all as paid employees during the reference week; worked in their own business, profession, or on their own farm; or worked without pay at least 15 hours in a family business or farm. People are also counted as employed if they were temporarily absent from their jobs because of illness, bad weather, vacation, labor-management disputes, or personal reasons…
The household survey includes agricultural workers, the self-employed, unpaid family workers, and private household workers among the employed. These groups are excluded from the establishment survey.
–The household survey includes people on unpaid leave among the employed. The establishment survey does not.
–The household survey is limited to workers 16 years of age and older. The establishment survey is not limited by age.
–The household survey has no duplication of individuals, because individuals are counted only once, even if they hold more than on job. In the establishment survey, employees working at more than one job and thus appearing on more than one payroll are counted separately for each appearance.
There are more reasons for the discrepancy from the BLS: In the household survey, the reference period is generally the calendar week that contains the 12th day of the month. In the establishment survey, the reference period is the pay period including the 12th, which may or may not correspond directly to the calendar week…
Many seasonally adjusted series are independently adjusted in both the household and establishment surveys… In the household survey, new seasonal factors are used to adjust only the current month’s data. In the establishment survey, however, new seasonal factors are used each month to adjust the three most recent monthly estimates. The prior 2 months are routinely revised to incorporate additional sample reports and recalculated seasonal adjustment factors…http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm
Of course, the B/D is a major reason for discrepancies between the two surveys, per the BLS:
Another major source of nonsampling error in the establishment survey is the inability to capture, on a timely basis, employment generated by new firms. To correct for this systematic underestimation of employment growth, an estimation procedure with two components is used to account for business births. The first component excludes employment losses from business deaths from sample-based estimation in order to offset the missing employment gains from business births. This is incorporated into the sample-based estimation procedure by simply not reflecting sample units going out of business, but imputing to them the same employment trend as the other firms in the sample. This procedure accounts for most of the net birth/death employment…
The BLS ignores jobs losses from busted firms and the firms that disappear in the B/D jobs guesstimation. Who on the Street knows this? It’s all in the footnotes but few analysts take the time to ‘do the work’. Instead they pontificate without accurate knowledge or they input ‘garbage in’ data into their proprietary models, which generates inaccurate, ‘garbage out’ present conditions and forecasts.
Please note that the BLS assumes that small businesses ALWAYS creates jobs(systemic underestimation of employment growth) even though there is abundant evidence from various sources that there is less small business formation and growth. This is why the B/D model kept fabricating jobs during the darkest days of the 2008-2009 crisis and during the worst economic recovery on record.
B/D Model jobs growth is the biggest component of NFP ‘growth’ over the past few years.
For the past 12 months, Birth/Death Models jobs are 548k or 30.5% of the 1.794m NFP NSA. The ‘Leisure & Hospitality’ component of B/D jobs is 234k of the 548k. These are assumed waitress, busboy and bartender-type jobs that are best guesses.
For the past 12 months ‘Leisure & Hospitality’ is 283k of NFP NSA; Education & Healthcare is 319k.
John Williams notes that the chicanery in the July Employment Report goes beyond B/D job fudging.
The July employment and unemployment numbers published today, August 3rd, were worthless and likely misleading. What has been done in the last couple of decades to the reporting methodologies for monthly labor data, compounded by distortions introduced into the system from the economic collapse of the last five years, has left the heavily-followed employment and unemployment series seriously impaired as to significance, and potentially subject to direct political manipulation…
John reveals that a member of the advisory panel to the BLS under Nixon told him that Tricky Dick suspected that the BLS was rigging the jobs report against him. So Nixon suggested that each month only one employment number should be released – the lower of either the seasonally or not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate – “without telling the public which one had been released…”
Mr. Williams asserts that the BLS did similar chicanery with the July Employment Report.
…the BLS just published the July 2012 headline unemployment rate, but it will not tell the public what the appropriate comparative number was for June.
Due to the deliberate, inconsistent reporting of monthly unemployment rates, the official 0.1 percentage point increase in the July headline rate was not necessarily so…it could have been unchanged; or it could have declined. Annual revisions to last year’s data showed a difference of 0.2 percentage point versus initial estimates of month-to-month change in at least one month.
Only the BLS knows what the actual June-to-July change was, and it will not publish a hard number, on a consistent basis, until after the election, along with the December 2012 data to be released in January 2013. By then, today’s number will have been revised (but not re-reported) five times…
Still, the BLS will not publish the revised, consistent June number—leaving in place instead the now-obsolete unique June calculation of the month before—so as “to avoid confusing data users.” As would have been the case with President Nixon’s proposal, the published numbers here have no meaning in terms of month-to-month comparisons, and extremely few people have any idea that there even is a problem in the reporting… http://www.shadowstats.com/article/no-461-july-employment-and-unemployment?display=pdf
Final July Employment Report notes:
Service sector jobs were 88k more than June due mostly to a 44k gain in Education & Healthcare.
In July 2011, 79k government jobs were lost; this July only 9k government jobs were lost. Election year politics demand that government jobs cuts are deferred until the next year. ‘Tis another reason that 2013 could be horrendous – election-year ‘greasing’ defers economic pain to the ensuing year.
German politicians concerned about bigger role for ESM
Politicians in Germany’s ruling centre-right coalition have expressed renewed concerns about an increased role for the euro zone’s permanent bailout fund, which is at the centre of a court case after the German parliament approved it in basic form.
German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle told Germany’s weekly Focus magazine he was opposed both to broadening the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the euro zone’s permanent bailout mechanism, and to stepping up purchases of European sovereign bonds. “I can’t imagine the Bundestag lower house of parliament would give a majority to a policy of unlimited joint liability for Germany. As an MP I certainly couldn’t agree to that,” he said in an advance copy of the article due to appear on Sunday…
The German central bank is opposed to fresh ECB bond buying on the grounds that it amounts to monetary financing of governments, contravening European law. Alexander Dobrindt, the CSU’s General Secretary of the conservative Christian Social Union, was even more critical, accusing Draghi of using the ECB for Italian national interests in the Tagesspiegel newspaper on Saturday…
Der Spiegel: ‘Vengeance for ECB Bond-Buying Will Be Bitter’
Senior FDP member Rainer Brüderle, who was economy minister prior to Rösler, added that “the ECB should concentrate on its core competency. Fundamentally, it is not the duty of a central bank to participate in state financing.”…Still, the widespread resistance in Germany to ECB action, and to many other euro-crisis proposals that could increase German taxpayer liability, has painted Merkel into a corner. With the opposition in Berlin showing a decreased willingness to rubber stamp her euro-crisis measures and a growing rebellion within the ranks of her own government, her ability to respond to the worsening crisis may become increasingly limited… [Merkel is up for re-election in 2013.]
Greece eyes T-bills to cover funding squeeze: minister
Cash-strapped and behind targets agreed under a 130 billion euro ($160.4 billion) financial rescue package, Athens faces a 3.2 billion euro bond maturity on August 20.
“The situation (with cash reserves) is borderline and will remain so until September when the (EU/IMF/ECB) report will be concluded,” Deputy Finance Minister Christos Staikouras told the paper in an interview. “We are managing cash reserves carefully and exploring several solutions, such as an increase in the issuance of T-bills. We will choose the optimal solution in agreement with our partners,” he said…The troika will meet with Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras on Sunday…
Greece’s new pledges will take epic battle to implement [New promises to break, what has changed?]
Greece’s latest fiscal and reform pledges may be enough to convince international lenders weary after years of broken promises to keep Athens hooked to a 130 billion euro lifeline, but the battle to implement it will be epic.http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/05/us-greece-pledges-idUSBRE87403A20120805
Greece Faces Further Reviews Before Release of Aid
Envoys representing Greece’s international creditors on Sunday wrapped up an inspection of the country’s progress in meeting the terms of its second bailout and said they would return next month for a final review to determine whether further loans are released and a default is averted.
In separate statements, inspectors and Greek government officials said that significant headway had been achieved in the talks, which focused on €3 billion, or $3.7 billion, for 2012 in budget cuts the government has yet to implement, and another €11.5 billion in budget cuts demanded for 2013 and 2014. The cutbacks — chiefly reductions to state spending, pensions and social benefits — must be implemented in exchange for the release of further installments of rescue funding…
How absurd! Greece is getting yet another bailout before it complies with the terms of the prior bailout!
The wonderment in all this new bailout news is that Greece was purportedly rescued months ago. It was in all the papers and stocks rallied robustly on the news. Does the fact that Greece wasn’t bailed out refute the concept of the omniscient stock market?
Italy plays down prospects it will tap EU rescue funds
Italy does not at the moment need to ask the euro zone’s rescue funds to buy its government bonds in the markets to bring down borrowing costs, Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco and Cabinet Undersecretary Antonio Catricala said on Sunday. Chances that Rome will have to tap the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) or its successor the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) in future will depend largely on Italy’s budget and reform efforts, Visco told Repubblica daily…
Disagreements within the 17-nation euro area are undermining the future of the European Union, said Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti as the stand-off on European Central Bank support for Italian and Spanish debt hardened…
There was no official German reaction to Draghi’s statements, partly because it’s vacation time across Europe. Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is in his native Galicia, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is walking in the Italian Alps, and French President Francois Hollande is staying at an official vacation residence in the South of France.
Euro-area finance chiefs won’t meet until Sept. 3 to discuss possible Spanish bond buying and the economic situation in Greece, Italian news agency Ansa reported Aug. 3, citing unidentified European officials. European governments would not confirm the meeting. The next meeting of the ECB’s governing council is Sept. 6…http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-05/monti-warns-germany-that-euro-crisis-threatens-europe-s-future.html
While important Euro leaders are on vacation, dilettantes & interlopers are pontificating and the media is spreading the jabberwocky. Then traders react to the nonsense – a typical summer rally folly.
We experienced the horror of the 1987 Market Crash, which was the first computer-generated crash.
In 1986 the ‘Super Dot’ order system appeared. This allowed brokers to execute orders larger than 10,000 shares. Program traders/ futures & options arbs had been executive trades manually until then.
Salomon, Bankers Trust and others employed $2 brokers in zones on the NYSE floor to execute the orders. There was ample ‘heads up’ given to professional traders on the Street before a ‘program’ was executed. We would get several calls from the NYSE floor that ‘Salomon [clerks] were passing out orders to execute a ‘two tick’ or ‘five minute’ program.
Once the orders were placed around the NYSE floor, they would be executed and the brokerage firm would also execute the corresponding futures [usually] or OEX options orders.
But once Super Dot appeared, the world changed. Now orders could be zipped lightning fast directly to the NYSE specialists’ books. There was no more lag time to distribute and execute orders.
This operation is what produced the huge 1987 summer rally, in conjunction with rumortrage, which was the daily Street chatter about takeover deals.
But when the program traders decide to dump stocks via Super Dot, the financial system went to the abyss on Monday, October 19, 1987 and collapsed on Tuesday, October 20, 1987.
As bad as the 508-point DJIA decline on Monday, October 19, 1987 appeared, it was far worse because S&P futures and OEX options were trading at the equivalent of about a 750-point DJIA decline.
If this magnitude of decline had been displayed, a full-fledged financial panic would have transpired.
The reason that derivatives were so mispriced compared to stocks was that computers at that time were not efficient enough to keep stock and derivative prices in concert.
Also, and this point has been lost on most people, particularly industry nabobs, most customers, retail and institutional, couldn’t execute sell orders. In fact, most retail customers couldn’t contact their brokers or mutual fund reps because the telecommunications and orders system failed – erstwhile circuit breakers.
Now we live in a world where everyone and anyone are or can be connected digitally. Orders are being zipped in nanoseconds around the globe. Communication & execution circuit breakers are virtually gone.
If another impetus appears that induces fervid selling ala 1987 or even 1989, the geometrically more efficient communications and execution systems of today plus HFT and algo trading will facilitate horror multiples beyond that of 1987.
Today – The deadly dangerous environment has gotten even more treacherous. Global financial and economic conditions are worsening but bailout fever is proliferating and risk assets are inflating. We must once again reiterate that the current situation is extremely dangerous and summer rallies on hope & hype amid economic ebbing often become calamities of biblical proportion.
Do not play unless you must!
The Olympics provide compelling entertainment and welcomed diversion. However, the increasing presence of trivial pursuits masqueraded as athletic competition leads one to worry that future Olympiads will award medals in ‘Rock, Paper, Scissors’, ‘Three-Penny Hockey’ and ‘Matchbook Football’.
In an exlusive interview on Fox 26 with Jose Grinon and Melissa Wilson discussing the disconnect between the financial markets and the real economy. I recently discussed this idea in much greater detail in an article entitled "The Great Disconnect: Markets Vs. Economy" wherein I stated:
"So, while the markets have surged to "all-time highs" - for the majority of Americans who have little, or no, vested interest in the financial markets their view is markedly different. While the mainstream analysts and economists keep hoping with each passing year that this will be the year the economy comes roaring back - the reality is that all the stimulus and financial support available from the Fed, and the government, can't put a broken financial transmission system back together again. Eventually, the current disconnect between the economy and the markets will merge. My bet is that such a convergence is not likely to be a pleasant one."
Weak wage growth, elevated levels of unemployment, and rising prices for food and energy continue to chip away at the fabric of the American economy even though the Fed continues to inflate asset prices further. The reality is that we are like inflating the next asset bubble as I discussed in early March of this year:
Don’t misunderstand me. As we wrote last week - it is certainly conceivable that the markets could attain all-time highs. The speculative appetite combined with the Fed’s liquidity is a powerful combination in the short term. However, the increase in speculative risks combined with excess leverage leave the markets vulnerable to a sizable correction at some point in the future.
The only missing ingredient for such a correction currently is simply a catalyst to put "fear" into an overly complacent marketplace. There is currently no shortage of catalysts to pick from whether it is further fiscal policy missteps stemming from the upcoming "Debt Ceiling" debate, a resurgence of the Eurozone crisis, or an unexpected shock from an area yet to be on our radar.
In the long term it will ultimately be the fundamentals that drive the markets. Currently, the deterioration in the growth rate of earnings, and economic strength, are not supportive of the speculative rise in asset prices or leverage. The idea of whether, or not, the Federal Reserve, along with virtually every other central bank in the world, are inflating the next asset bubble is of significant importance to investors who can ill afford to once again lose a large chunk of their net worth.
It is all reminiscent of the market peak of 1929 when Dr. Irving Fisher uttered his now famous words: "Stocks have now reached a permanently high plateau." The clamoring of voices that the bull market is just beginning is telling much the same story. History is repleat with market crashes that occurred just as the mainstream belief made heretics out of anyone who dared to contradict the bullish bias.
Does an asset bubble currently exist? Ask anyone and they will tell you "NO." However, maybe it is exactly that tacit denial which might just be an indication of its existence.
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- • Philly Fed Bounces - Internals Weaken
- • Housing Starts and Permits: Euphoria May B...
- • Market Rallies As Expected
- • Retail Sales - Not As Strong As Headlines S...
- • Chart Of The Day: JOLT Survey And The Peak ...
- • Trade Deficit - Recession Risks Increase
- • What Wholesale Trade Can Tell Us About 3Q E...
- • Fox Business - Bull/Bear Market Report
- • NFIB - Small Businesses Don't Agree With BL...
- • Unemployment 7.8% to 22% - Is There A Bette...
- • Why The Real Unemployment Rate Is 16.9%
- • Romney Got It Right On Jobs and Taxes
- • What Is The ADS And Why Is It Signaling A R...
- • 3 Major Risks To The 4th Quarter
- • Have Investors Really Missed Anything?
- ► September (25)
- • Second Recession Horseman Goes Down
- • GDP And Durable Goods - Heading To Recessio...
- • Market Sell Off Pushes Toward Support Level...
- • What To Expect From Post-Election Year Mark...
- • Economic Data Continues To Weaken
- • 4 Keys To Successful Long Term Investing
- • QE3 And Bernanke's Folly - Part II
- • Romney Should Be Fighting For The 47%
- • China: A Love-Hate Relationship
- • QE3 - Mortgage Rates And Housing
- • QE3 And Bernanke's Folly - Part I
- • Fed Announces QE - Initial Thoughts
- • Analyzing The ECRI Recession Call
- • Import Prices and Wholesale Trade - Weaknes...
- • Trade Deficit - Exports A Major Concern
- • NFIB - Good News Beneath The Surface
- • CNBC - The Fed, QE3 and Jobs
- • Employment Report - Worse Than It Looks
- • MarketWatch - 3 Factors Deciding The Next P...
- • ECB - A Program To Nowhere
- • When Good Employment News Is Really Bad New...
- • Draghi To Announce Sterilized Bond Purchase...
- • Productivity Increases And The Employment C...
- • ISM and Construction Spending Show Weakness
- • Stage For EuroCrisis Resurgence Being Set
- ► August (30)
- • The Incredible Lightness Of "Hope"
- • PCE - A Tale Of The Consumer
- • Q2 GDP - Nothing Good Happening Here
- • QE3 Mechanism Is Broken
- • Investing For The Next Recession
- • Pigeons At The Table
- • Durable Goods And New Home Sales
- • Monday Reading List
- • Is It Time To Buy Gold?
- • Chart Of The Day: Confidence Waning
- • To The Contrary - QE-3 Is Not Coming Soon
- • Three Things That Will Influence The Electi...
- • No Recession Now - But When?
- • Do You Feel Lucky? Well Do Ya?
- • The Monday Morning Reading List
- • Thoughts On The Market
- • Chasing Yield Can Be Hazardous To Your Reti...
- • Gold, Dollar & Rates Say No QE
- • NFIB - Dear Administration, Are You Listeni...
- • Everything Needs To Go Right
- • End Of Week Economic Data Roundup
- • Want More Tax Revenue? Increase Jobs Not R...
- • Market "Hope" Rally Overbought
- • Are Investors Really That Bearish?
- • Chart Of The Day: Follow The Money
- • Bullish Data Says No Q.E. Coming
- • BLS - Jobs Increase As Businesses Cut
- • Fed And ECB - No Action As Expected
- • CBNC - ECB and Knight Trading Glitch
- • Economic Reports Confirm Deterioration
- ► July (20)
- • Consumer Spending Points To Weaker Employme...
- • FOMC, ECB and Jobs - A Trifecta Of Potentia...
- • 2nd Quarter GDP - Weaker In All The Wrong P...
- • ECB Spurs Short Covering Rally
- • Major Sell Signal Triggered
- • Richmond Fed - Recession Risks Increase
- • CFNAI And Market Update
- • Thoughts On Long Term Investing
- • LEI, Philly Fed, Housing And The 100 Days O...
- • Corporate Profits Surge At Expense Of Worke...
- • Markets Have Trapped Fed On QE3
- • Will QE 3 Save Us From Recession
- • Consumers Flash Warning Signal
- • Import-Export Prices And Jobless Claims
- • Trade and Mortgage Data - More Evidence Of ...
- • NFIB Weakness And Recession Risks
- • Looking At The Economic Forest
- • Homes: The Case Of M2V And The Elusive Reco...
- • Coming This Fall - The Best Time To Invest
- • Euro Crisis: 366 Days Later
- ► June (25)
- • Consumer Spending Leads To Lower Q2 GDP
- • Q1 GDP - Consumer Weaker As Weather Saves T...
- • Durable Goods - Highly Volatile But Trend T...
- • June Rally Complete - Summer Sell Off Ahead...
- • The Fed And Goldilocks Economic Forecasting
- • Negative Economic Trends Clearing Way For Q...
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Fed Lowers Economic Outl...
- • No Q.E. As Expected - "Twist" Extended
- • No QE3 Tomorrow - Replay Of 2011 Continues
- • CHART OF THE DAY: JOLT Survey And Peak Emp...
- • Have A State Pension? Don't Count On It.
- • Inflation, Dollar And Interest Rates Open D...
- • Retail Sales In Decline
- • Deflationary Presssures Rising - PPI
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Negative Net Export Pric...
- • NFIB - Shows Flaws In Current Policy Mix
- • Why Spain's Bailout May Spell The End Of Th...
- • Trade - A Wholesale And Int'l Disappointmen...
- • Risks To The Market Rebound
- • Forecasting The Rebound And Bottom
- • St. Bernanke's Fight Against The Deflation ...
- • CHART OF THE DAY: US Best Place To Invest
- • ISM Composite - Economic Weakness Returns
- • TheStreet.Com - Gold Run Not Over
- • The Lie That Is Social Security
- ► May (27)
- • Yahoo! Summer Portfolio Management Ideas
- • Yahoo! Low Interest Rates Hurts Economy
- • Fox Business - Tending Your Portfolio
- • CNBC - Eurozone Slowdown Will Impact US
- • Housing Recovery - Hope and Reality
- • Interview - Southwest Airlines, Facebook an...
- • Durable Goods Disappointing
- • 4-Issues For The Market Ahead
- • Richmond Fed Showing More Weakness
- • Sell Signal Confirmed - Initial Targets Set
- • Risk Ratio Indicating More Correction Comin...
- • Confirmed "Sell Signal" Approaches
- • Industrial Production And The Recovery
- • Composite Inflation Index Declines
- • Real Retail Sales Under Pressure
- • Sex, Money and Largesse - The Hidden Depres...
- • Trade Defict - Confirming Weaker Q1 GDP
- • The Clock Is Ticking On The Next Eurozone C...
- • Initial Sell Signal In - Confirmation Is Li...
- • NFIB - Optimistic But Still At Recessionary...
- • Economic Trends Don't Paint A Robust Pictur...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - Dr. Lacy ...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - David Ros...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - Dr. Woody...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - Niall Fer...
- • 3 Likely Triggers Of The Next Recession
- • ISM Report Bucking The Trend
- ► April (19)
- • The "Consumption Dysfunction" Continues
- • Q1 GDP - Weaker Than Expected
- • Social Security Has A Real Problem - Employ...
- • Decline In Durable Goods Indicative Of Broa...
- • Impatience Will Lead To Our Demise
- • Market Cracks Support - Correction Gets Ser...
- • LEI - Slower Growth Of The Growth Update
- • Philly Fed Points To Weaker Profits Ahead
- • Mother Nature's Bail Out Coming To An End
- • 10 More Years Of Low Returns
- • 5 Mistakes That Will Crush Your Retirement ...
- • Earnings Likely To Be "Better Than Expected...
- • Market Hits Support - Now What?
- • The Return Of Economic Weakness
- • The Correction Has Started
- • The "Real" Employment Report - March 2012
- • Now The Media Is Hooked On QE Crack
- • Wave 5 Of The Cyclical Bull Market
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Signs Of Recovery?
- ► March (24)
- • The Consumption Dysfunction
- • WTF! Chart Of The Day
- • An Update On Margin Debt
- • Hyperinflation Isn't A Threat
- • Surprise! Jobs Drive Consumer Confidence
- • Death Of The Gold Bull Market?
- • Housing And The Elusive Recovery
- • LEI - Slower Growth Of The Growth
- • The Long Road Ahead
- • The "Fly" In Ryan's Budget Ointment
- • 1.8 Million Jobs Lost In 2012
- • Why 4% GDP Will Remain Elusive
- • The Stretching Of Limits
- • Rising Costs And Profit Margins
- • Retail Sales - A Lot About Weather
- • Correction: There Has Been No Correction
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Ceridian-UCLA PCI
- • NFIB - Index Up But Internals Weaken
- • Employment Report And The Market
- • Is The Investing Game Rigged?
- • OIl Prices Will Hurt The Consumer
- • Has The Correction Started?
- • The Immediacy Trap
- • 1st Quarter GDP To Be Much Weaker
- ► February (22)
- • Oil Prices WILL Slow The Economy (Revised)
- • Don't Feed The Animals
- • The Housing Recovery In One Index
- • Consumer Sentiment Responds To Market Rally
- • The Straw That Potentially Breaks The Camel...
- • Media Headlines Will Lead You To Ruin
- • Philly Fed Future Activity Points To Weakne...
- • Housing Headlines Improve - Reality Doesn't
- • The "Real" American Dream
- • Industrial Production - The Revival May Hav...
- • Consumer Confidence Has Everything To Do Wi...
- • NFIB - Optimistic But Still In The Foxhole
- • Financial Stress Composite Rising
- • Trade Data Trends Signal Weakness Ahead
- • Consumer Credit And The American Conundrum
- • Is Now The Time To Jump In?
- • Gold - The Technical Rundown
- • Bringing The NILF Mystery To Light
- • Gallop Points To Weaker Employment Report T...
- • Earning Less - Why The Poor Get Poorer
- • ISM - Misses Expectations
- • ADP Signals Weak Job Report Friday
- ► January (23)
- • Chicago ISM - Has The Recovery Peaked?
- • Home Prices Fall Further
- • PCE Points To Weaker GDP Ahead
- • Q4 GDP - "Prognosis Still Negative"
- • Fed Meeting - Reconciling A Weak Economy
- • Why Home Prices Have Much Further To Fall
- • IMF Cuts Global Forecast - US Won't Dodge T...
- • Complacency Risk Is High
- • Prices Paid And Coming Earnings Weakness
- • Housing Is Not Affordable
- • Industrial Production Confirming Changes To...
- • Patiently Waiting For The Golden Cross
- • Consumer Sentiment Rises - Still In Recessi...
- • Why QE3 Won't Help "Average Joe"
- • Industrial Production May Be About To Weake...
- • Consumer Spending May Dissapoint
- • NFIB - Small Businesses More Optimistic
- • Markets Throw Off A Buy Signal
- • The Real Employment Situation Report For De...
- • Improvement In Employment - At Least For No...
- • Markets Getting Over Bought / Over Bullish
- • Market Rallies To Resistance - Now What?
- • ISM & Construction Spending - Modest Improv...
- ► December (19)
- ► 2011 (277)
- ► December (22)
- • 2012 Outlook - Anything Other Than The Apoc...
- • Q3 GDP - "Prognosis Negative"
- • The Eurozone Is Saved?
- • Market Rally To Nowhere
- • Housing Starts Up - Patient Still Critical
- • NAHB Housing Market Index
- • A Little Followed Indicator Hints At Recess...
- • Inflation Pressures Rising In The Core
- • Economic Deluge - Economy Shows Some Positi...
- • Is The Gold Run Over?
- • Import Prices Jump - Recession Odds Increas...
- • NFIB - Bounce Off The Bottom
- • No Holiday Cheer In Retail Sales
- • A Million Dollars Ain't What It Used To Be
- • STA RIsk Ratio Turns Up - We've Seen This B...
- • Consumer Sentiment Ticks Up
- • What Are Initial Claims Not Telling Us?
- • Is Consumer Spending Really Surging?
- • Could Gasoline Prices Trigger A Recession
- • Market Rallies Into EU Meeting
- • ISM Composite Index Ticks Up
- • The Real Employment Situation Report
- ► November (29)
- • Economic Data - Headlines Bullish
- • Markets Surge As World Engages In Global Ba...
- • Was That The Consumer's Last Gasp?
- • Housing - The Margin Effect
- • Economic "Run Down" - Weakness Emerges
- • GDP - Revised Down
- • Is Market Warning Of The Next Lehman Event?
- • EOCI Index Improves - Is It All Clear?
- • Philly Fed Survey - Predicting A Peak In Ea...
- • US Debt To GDP Now 98.9% And Rising
- • Inflation - A Continued Problem For Consume...
- • Economy Shows Tenative Signs Of Improvement
- • Debate - Is US Becoming Japan
- • Presidential And Decennial Cycles - What Ab...
- • Consumer Sentiment Driven By Market Rally
- • Net Export Prices Turn Down
- • What "Average Joe" Really Thinks
- • Blood Bath As Italy Faces Crisis
- • Are Oil Prices Confirming ECRI Recession Ca...
- • Oil Price Spike Update
- • No Joy In NFIB Report
- • Market Vs Economic Cycles And Sector Rotati...
- • Employment - The Good, Bad & Ugly
- • ISM Non-Manufacturing Index - Not Adding Up
- • Productivity Up - Costs Down
- • Fed's Outlook Much Weaker Than Reported
- • Food Stamp Usage Sets New Record
- • Fed Trapped By Inflation
- • Manufacturing Not Showing GDP Strength
- ► October (24)
- • STA Risk Ratio Turns Up
- • Buy Signal Is In - But Move Slowly
- • Recession Still Likely Despite Bump In GDP
- • A Haircut, Boost and Drop
- • New Homes Sales - Glued To The Bottom
- • Consumer Is Key To Next Recession
- • Case-Shiller 20-City Index Flat As HARP Wil...
- • CFNAI - Better But Still Negative
- • Understanding Federal Debt: Point - Counter...
- • Temporary Bounce In Philly Fed Confirmed By...
- • Inflation Rises Along With Housing Hopes
- • Snipe Hunting In The Housing Market
- • Der Spiegel is Der Wrong
- • Inventories, Sentiment and Sales - Behind T...
- • The Empire Is Tarnished
- • A JOLT To The System
- • NFIB and PCI - More Signs Of Weakness
- • 1929-45 Vs Today - Following The Same Path
- • Unemployment Report Worse Than It Looks
- • Bearish Sentiment Abounds
- • ISM Composite Index - Been Here Before
- • Yield Spread Confirming Recession Call
- • Market Breaks Its Neck
- • ISM Manufacturing Index - Backlog Drawdown ...
- ► September (34)
- • 5 Months Down - Time For A Bounce?
- • Economic Trifecta - But No Winners
- • Economy Upticks & Jobless Claims Fall
- • Gallup - Economic Confidence Slides
- • Can Margin Debt Give Us A Clue On Market Di...
- • Euro Tarp - Why It Will Be A Screaming Fail...
- • Consumer Doldrums
- • Chicago Fed National Activity "Slowing Down...
- • End Of Week Technical Wrap Up
- • The Yield Spread Is Lying About The Coming ...
- • Leading Indicators Predict Weaker Economy
- • Why The Fed's "Silver Bullet" Won't Kill Th...
- • Fed Buy's Paltry $ 400 Billion - Need A Hug...
- • Market Weak - Waiting On The Fed
- • Housing Still A Drag
- • Consumer Confidence Remains At Lowest Level...
- • Coordinated Central Bank Intervention Creat...
- • Philly Fed Survey - Predicting Recession
- • CPI Rises - Inflation Hits Home
- • Consumers Tapping Out Savings To Spend
- • PPI - Pushing A Slowdown
- • NFIB Confidence Slides Lower
- • Export Prices Still A Negative For The Econ...
- • The Great American Economic Lie
- • High Yield Spread Signaling Recession
- • The Economy Weakens More
- • Obama's $ 400 Billion For Jobs And Counting
- • Trade Deficit - Points To Possible Uptick I...
- • Another Domino Falls For The Market
- • Corporate Profits Are In Trouble
- • Are Stocks Undervalued?
- • European Markets Down Sharply
- • Jobs - What Jobs?
- • Why Unemployment Is About To Surge
- ► August (38)
- • Market Bounce OR New Bull Market
- • Chicago ISM Confirms Weakness
- • Consumer Confidence Collapses - Again
- • Personal Incomes Still Under Pressure
- • Annotated Bernanke Speech - The Elusive Eco...
- • Corporate Profits - Hinting At Recession
- • GDP - Revised Down
- • The Deficit Spending Trap
- • Will Ben Go For Another Round Of QE?
- • Boomers - Are Going To Be A Real Drag
- • No Job = No New House
- • Beware Of Long Term Investing Advice
- • Technical Market Overview
- • EOCI Index Now At Recession Levels
- • Composite Inflation Index Warning Of Slower...
- • 7 Things That Make Me Worried
- • The Difference Between "WHAT" and "WHEN"
- • Empire Fed Index - 3 Strikes You're Out
- • Rosenberg On The Economy
- • Consumer Confidence Collapses
- • Trade Deficit Points To Sub-1% 2nd Qtr GDP
- • 7 Things My Mom Taught Me About Investing
- • Blood In The Streets - Part II
- • Ceridian UCLA Consumer Pulse - Going Flatli...
- • Market Bounce - Was It Stealth QE3?
- • FOMC Meeting Ends - No Change To Stance
- • NFIB Survey Says...Higher Taxes Won't Work
- • Panic Attack! Markets Extremely Oversold
- • Employment Report Less Than Meets The Eye
- • Market Trashed Again! Panic Hits.
- • Recession Almost A Certainty
- • QE 3 Coming - But Won't Save The Economy
- • Yield Curves & The Fed Model
- • ISM Composite Index - Continues Decline
- • Market Trashed - What Now?
- • Personal Income Under Pressure
- • ISM - Clinging On For Dear Life
- • Debt Deal - A Complete Failure
- ► July (38)
- • We Are All Guessing
- • Dismal Economic Numbers
- • 10 Lessons Learned From Poker
- • STA Risk Ratio - Still On Sell Signal
- • GDP - 2nd Quarter Estimate
- • Consumer Un-Confidence
- • Are We Headed For A Second Recession? Upda...
- • Chicago Fed National Activity Index Confirm...
- • Decline In Profits Leads Index
- • EOC Index Shows Economic Weakness
- • Help Wanted - Not So Much
- • Existing Home Sales - A Resumption Of Decli...
- • Housing Starts - Bouncing Along The Bottom
- • You Can't Have A Jobless Recovery
- • NAHB Housing Index - No Signs Of Life
- • Commentary: A Default Would Devastate D.C.-...
- • Tax Reform -The Overlooked Solution
- • Empire Index - Harbinger Of Bad Things To C...
- • Consumers Believe It's Really A Recession
- • Inflation Index Flashes Warning
- • Bernanke Gives US Congress "The Finger"
- • Retail Sales & Jobless Claims
- • Why The Trade Deficit Is Warning Of Weak GD...
- • QE 3 - "To Infinity And Beyond"
- • No Fear - That's Not A Good Thing
- • More Fed Stimulus - As Expected
- • NFIB - No Jobs For You
- • Why Economists Don't Have A Clue About Jobs
- • Raising Taxes Won't Raise Revenue
- • Why The Jobs Report Is Worse Than It Seems
- • Why Oil Price Spikes "Feel" Worse
- • The Average Investor Doesn't Stand A Chance
- • How To Just Get By On Food Stamps
- • Jobless Still Jobless- Teens Hired For The ...
- • ISM Composite Index Showing Contraction
- • Outperforming The Market By 30% With No Ris...
- • ISM Report - Little To Be Excited About
- • Greenspan - QE Was A Failure
- ► June (38)
- • Market Failed At Resistance - Now What?
- • Full Employment - Hope vs Reality
- • Existing Home Sales Reflect Balance Sheet R...
- • Myths Of Retirement Planning
- • Implications Of Household Debt Deleveraging
- • LEI Warning Of Economic Stumbling Economy
- • Greece Ripple Effects Could Create US Finan...
- • Consumer Confidence Falls
- • Economy Failing Right On Time
- • New Home Starts - It's The Job Market Stupi...
- • Composite Price Index - Pushing Upper Limit...
- • Empire Composite Index Signals Economic Con...
- • PPI - Ratio Pointing To Economic Weakness
- • NFIB Employment Expectations Dispells 5% Ec...
- • Trade Deficit - A Roadmap To Economic Stren...
- • How Far Might A Bounce Go?
- • What Is Really Driving The Weakness In The ...
- • Obama Says He Has No Fear Of A Double Dip
- • NYSE Margin Debt
- • Beranke Speech - A Prelude To QE 3
- • Don't Get Suckered!
- • QE3 - Just A Matter Of Time
- • Job Report Shocker
- • Where's My Bottom
- • STA Risk Ratio Indicator Update - Still Cor...
- • ISM Composite Index Confirmed Market Top
- • Not The American Dream I Was Told About
- • Never Buy Stocks Again? Seriously?
- • Where Is The Confidence?
- • ISM Manufacturing Report Hits The Brakes
- • A Weaker Dollar Equals A Weaker Economy
- • Market Bounce
- • SF Bay Bridge - "Made In China"
- • Consumer Confidence At Recession Levels
- • The Decline Of The American "Saver"
- • Greece Fire - NY Post
- • The Breaking Point
- • Financial Profits Reduce Economic Prosperit...
- ► May (32)
- • Consumer Confidence Falls
- • Slide In Corporate Profits - Part II
- • Personal Incomes Still Feeding The Gas Tank
- • Change In Corporate Profits Leads To Market...
- • Economic Surprises - The Wrong Kind
- • New Orders For Durable Goods - Another Nail...
- • STA Buy/Sell Indicator Flashes Sell Signal
- • New Home Sales Not Inspiring
- • STA Economic Output Index Takes A Plunge
- • Debt To GDP And A Sustainable Level
- • The Virtuous Cycle Of The Economy
- • Economy Shifting Into Slower Gear
- • 7 Impossible Trading Rules To Follow
- • Housing Starts Fall - Again
- • Cyclical Bull Markets In Secular Bear Marke...
- • Empire Manufacturing Index
- • More Inflation For Consumers!
- • Headline Inflation Pushing Up
- • Weakness In GDP Continues (X-M)
- • Small Business Optimism Getting Worse!
- • Import Prices Flashing Warning Signal
- • Home Prices Following The Path To Destructi...
- • The Hyperinflation Index
- • Unemployment Rate Climbs To 9.0%
- • The Link Between Productivity & Jobs
- • Commodities Stumble
- • Jobless Claims Jump
- • ISM Composite Index vs S&P 500
- • ADP & ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Have A Lo...
- • Gallup: More Than Half Of Americans Still S...
- • "Let Them Eat IPads"
- • Have We Seen The Peak In This Business Cycl...
- ► April (22)
- • Fallacy Of The Falling Dollar
- • 1.8% GDP Not So Great!
- • Bernanke's Folly - High Oil Prices Are Flee...
- • Consumer Confidence - STILL Not So Confiden...
- • Tracking The Next Gasoline Induced Recessio...
- • New Home Sales Tick Up
- • STA Risk Ratio Throwing Off Warning Signal
- • The Philly Fed Survery Says....#&^%@!!
- • Americans Receive MORE In Government Handou...
- • NYSE Margin Debt Reaching Danger Zone
- • Housing Starts Not Starting
- • Pitchfork and Torches For The Rich
- • S&P Downgrades US Credit Outlook To Negativ...
- • Why You Can't Invest For The "Long Term"
- • Jobless Claims & PPI - Not Looking Better
- • Who Pays The Taxes!
- • Retail Sales Confirms Consumer Weakness
- • Gallop Poll Confirms NFIB Index - Economy S...
- • Small Business Still Not Optomistic
- • Trade Deficit Narrows - But Not In A Good W...
- • NYSE Margin Debt Climbs
- • High Commodity Prices Not The Result Of The...
- ► December (22)