King Report - Monday Squwak Box 07/30/12
- Written by Bill King | Monday, July 30, 2012
Conflicting reports as to ECB support (monetizing debt) for Spain and the euro appeared over the weekend. As one would expect, Euro solons want to spend German money, but Germany is wary.
Schäuble ECB rejects help for Spain
For days, it is rumored that the ECB wants to buy Spanish government bonds in a big way. Now Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has rejected such reports – there was “no truth”.
For days, it is speculated that the European Central Bank (ECB) is planning, together with the bailout fund EFSF Spanish government bond buy – so come back to Spain to cheaper capital. Federal Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU), but has now dismissed the reports in an interview with the newspaper “Welt am Sonntag”. “No, at this speculation is not true,” Schäuble said…The Finance Minister said it was already a sufficiently large aid package for Spain have been laced…
Juncker: Euro zone leaders, ECB to act on euro – paper
The euro zone is at a decisive point and leaders will work with the European Central Bank (ECB) to demonstrate their commitment to the stability of the single currency, Eurogroup head Jean-Claude Juncker said in interviews with European newspapers…
“The euro countries have reached a point where we have to use all means possible to show that we are determined to protect the stability of the euro zone… nobody should doubt the will of those involved, to prove our determination,” Juncker said… [In May, Juncker said officials must lie when things are bad.]
German banks cut back periphery lending
Cross-border lending by German banks to the weaker parts of the eurozone has dropped by nearly a fifth since January and now stands at the lowest level since 2005, according to new central bank data.
Between January and the end of May, German banks cut their net lending to Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain by €55bn to a total of €241bn, Morgan Stanley’s analysis of Bundesbank figures show… http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c41994b4-d7f0-11e1-9980-00144feabdc0.html#axzz222aomjmi
German support for Merkel’s crisis handling erodes: poll [Bailout fatigue]
The survey by YouGov, due to be printed in Monday’s edition of Bild newspaper, found 33 percent in favor of her stance but 48 percent against, a setback for the chancellor who is to seek a third term in a 2013 federal election, which she has vowed to make a vote on Europe.
Asked in the survey whether they feared for their savings, 44 percent of Germans said that they did.
In mid-July, a poll by ZDF-Politbarometer showed 63 percent of Germans backed Merkel’s handling of the crisis, although a majority thought she should explain her policies better…
Spanish bail-out ‘impossible’, experts warn
A full-blown sovereign bail-out of Spain would be economically and politically impossible and cost up to €650bn (£510bn), an in-depth study has warned.
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to leave interest rates on hold at 0.5pc and quantitative easing unchanged at £375bn when it makes its monthly decision on Thursday, despite the news this week that Britain remained in recession with a shock 0.7pc fall in GDP in the second quarter.
Economists said further monetary easing was more likely in November, once the latest £50bn round of QE had been completed… http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9434497/Spanish-bail-out-impossible-experts-warn.html
Spain’s unemployment rate is 24.6%; youth (under 25) unemployment is 53%.
Support for Spain’s PM falls sharply after new austerity steps The Metroscopia poll published monthly in left-leaning newspaper El Pais shows that if a general election was to take place now, the ruling People’s Party would still win with a 30 percent share of the vote but it would only retain a 5.3 percent advantage over the Socialist opposition, down from 15.9 percent in the November vote… http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/29/us-spain-rajoy-poll-idUSBRE86S0A620120729
As the month of July is coming close to an end, the number of profit warnings for the month issued by Hong Kong-listed companies (many of them are Chinese companies) has already surpassed the peak that was reached during the 2008/09 financial crisis. Although not all of them are Chinese companies, it does suggest that China’s corporate sector is probably facing a situation which is, to them, already worse than the financial crisis after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. In short, it already feels like a hard landing for many companies even though the heavily massaged Chinese macro data are not there yet…
Stocks soared on Friday due to more verbal intervention.
Merkel and Hollande said they would do whatever is necessary to save the euro. This produced the early rally. The afternoon surge was due to this Bloomberg report, which is the Europe-planted afternoon story:
Draghi Said to Hold Talks With Weidmann on ECB Bond Purchases
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will hold talks with Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann in the coming days in an effort to overcome the biggest stumbling block to a new raft of measures including bond purchases, two central bank officials said…
ECB spokesperson to CNBC: Won’t confirm or deny Draghi meeting w/ Bundesbank head; “normal” for Draghi to talk w/ governing council members.
Pedro da Costa (Reuters) tweet: Dow up 200 points on hopes of all kinds of bailouts from all kinds of central banks.
FT Markets editor Chris Adams tweet: Umpteenth headline on what Draghi says, thinks, feels, might do or just plain dreams about sends stocks into the stratosphere [Yes, it is that silly and stupid, fans.]
By late afternoon on Friday, virtually every major media outlet ran stories that had ECB or EU officials issuing warnings about expectations about ECB bond buying. But few traders wanted to be short going into the weekend and next week’s Fed, ECB and BoE meetings…So after next week, beware!
The FT’s Chris Adams: EZ officials warn that anyone expecting bond-buying announcement at next week’s ECB meeting will be disappointed Critically, several senior officials said the ECB was unlikely to dip back into Spanish and Italian bond markets unless it was preceded by action from the eurozone’s €440bn rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, which last year was given the power to purchase bonds both on the open market and at auction…
“The significant problems of our time cannot be solved by the same level of thinking that created them.” - Albert Einstein
We have repeatedly warned, for several years, that summer rallies on light volume in a slowing economic environment, let alone a world plagued with multiple sovereign debt and bank problems, produces very, very ugly autumns. Once the various QEs are announced, the clock will start ticking.
Euro zone crisis heads for September crunch
“September will undoubtedly be the crunch time,” one senior euro zone policymaker said.
In that month a German court makes a ruling that could neuter the new euro zone rescue fund, the anti-bailout Dutch vote in elections just as Greece tries to renegotiate its financial lifeline, and decisions need to be made on whether taxpayers suffer huge losses on state loans to Athens. On top of that, the euro zone has to figure out how to help its next wobbling dominoes, Spain and Italy – or what do if one or both were to topple… http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/29/us-eurozone-crisis-idUSBRE86S05J20120729
As usual, the headline GDP number of +1.54% masked underlying economic weakness.
Real final sales increased only 1.2% [2.4% in Q1]. Inventories increased $66B and contributed .32 to GDP growth; it subtracted .39 from Q1 GDP.
A decline in the GDP Price Deflator to 1.7% from 2% boosted Q2 GDP by 0.30 vs. Q1.
Spending on goods tanked to 0.7% from 4.7% and Durable Goods spending declined 1.0% (+11.5% in Q1] as spending on ‘Motor Vehicles and Parts’ tanked 10.6%. This makes automaker’s production run this summer, instead of retooling, look even more political.
- Nondurable goods spending fell .01 to 1.5% from Q1’s 1.6%.
- Service spending increased 0.6 to 1.9%.
- Business fixed investment in structures increased just 0.9% after a 12.9% jump in Q1 due to record warm weather.
- Orders for ‘Equipment and software’ declined for the first time since 2009.
Commerce Department GDP revisions:
- -3.1% from -3.5% for 2009
- 2.4% from 3% for 2010
- 1.8% from 1.7% for 2011
The most important revisions:
- For 2008-2011, the average annual rate of growth of real disposable personal income was revised down 0.1 percentage points, from 0.2 percent to 0.1 percent
- National income was revised down for all 3 years: 0.1 percent for 2009, 0.2 percent for 2010, and 0.5 percent for 2011.
- Corporate profits was revised down for all 3 years: 1.4 percent for 2009, 5.4 percent for 2010, and 6.0 percent for 2011. [Stocks weren’t as undervalued as thought and propagandized.]
Consumer Metric Institute: Real per-capita disposable income grew at an annualized 2.54% rate during the quarter (to $32,769 per year)…it is now only $5 per year more than the number recorded during the 3rd quarter of 2010, some 5 quarters ago.
The Washington Post of GDP: The U.S. economy has never been so sluggish this long into a recovery.
Because the recovery has been so tepid, most people don’t realize that the economic cycle is long in the tooth (41 months since crisis low in March 2009) and is due to roll over.
The Bundesbank weighed in on Draghi’s comments; but the story was ignored for the obvious reason.
Bundesbank repeats hostility to ECB bond buying
Germany’s powerful Bundesbank issued a reminder that it still opposed sovereign bond purchases by the European Central Bank, dampening market optimism after ECB president Mario Draghi hinted he could act more decisively in the eurozone debt crisis.
U.S. rental vacancy rate falls to lowest in decade
The residential rental vacancy rate declined to 8.6 percent from 8.8 percent in the January-March period, the Commerce Department said on Friday. The second-quarter reading was the lowest since 2002.
The tight rental market could keep pressure on rents despite general weakness in the economy…
Rent is about 30% of CPI and 30% of Core CPI. But the BLS will fudge any rent inflation so the Fed can keep trying to paper over declining US living standards and US budget deficits.
US Quarterly Earnings Seen Falling, First Time in 3 Yrs
Third-quarter earnings of Standard & Poor’s 500 companies are now expected to fall 0.1 percent from a year ago, a sharp revision from the July 1 forecast of 3.1 percent growth, Thomson Reuters data showed on Thursday. That would be the first decline in earnings since the third quarter of 2009..
Excluding Apple, third-quarter earnings are seen declining 0.7 percent, while revenue for the quarter is expected to fall 0.3 percent, the data showed…
While earnings performance has held up so far for the second quarter — with results in from about half of the S&P 500 companies — revenue has looked much gloomier. Just 41 percent of companies have beaten revenue estimates, the lowest since the first quarter of 2009 and only the fourth time in the past 10 years that the beat rate was under 50 percent.
GM, due to politics, has produced cars far in excess of demand, has stuffed cars into dealers and used political connections to increase fleet sales to government (+76% in June). It’s so Soviet-style economics.
GM Ramps Up Risky Subprime Auto Loans To Drive Sales
President Obama has touted General Motors as a successful example of his administration’s policies. Yet GM’s recovery is built, at least in part, on the increasing use of subprime loans…
The automaker is relying increasingly on subprime loans, 10-Q financial reports shows…
GM Financial auto loans to customers with FICO scores below 660 rose from 87% of total loans in Q4 2010 to 93% in Q1 2012. The worse the FICO score, the bigger the increase. From Q4 2010 to Q1 2012, GM Financial loans to customers with the worst FICO scores — below 540 — shot up 79% to more than $2.3 billion. The second worst category, 540-599, rose 28% from about $3.4 billion to $4.3 billion.
Prime loans, those above 660, dropped 42% to $676 million…
Marketing Boss Ewanick is Leaving General Motors
General Motors Co. is ousting its global marketing chief, people familiar with the situation said Sunday, with the abrupt departure marking the latest shake-up in the auto maker’s senior ranks…
As we stated in Friday’s missive, 2013 should be horrid because major problems have been suppressed for the election and to keep the economy and financial system afloat.
Surge in suspicious trade reports to FSA
During each of the past few months, financial institutions in the City of London have filed an average of 100 “suspicious transaction reports”. The monthly average of such reports for last year was 50…
Chinese speculators pile in to London housing bubble
A report released by international real estate services organization Colliers International in March this year showed that 20% of new houses in London are bought by people from China.
Going South: Why Britain Will Have A Third World Economy by 2014 by Larry Elliott & Dan Atkinson
Britain’s third-world status is signified by a bunch of qualitative factors: “public and commercial services work badly, the average person is becoming poorer rather than richer, the economy has been pulled horribly out of shape and government in the widest sense is hopelessly dysfunctional, with different branches of the state frequently at loggerheads with one another.”…
“For almost a century, the UK has deluded herself, first into believing that the days of global dominance will return, then into thinking that the symptoms of decline can be relatively easily tackled.” The country has pinned its hopes on a series of fixes—trade preference for other countries in the empire, joining the European Economic Community, North Sea oil, financial deregulation and housing bubbles—that have offered temporary boosts. The current government’s growth plan, involving tax incentives for business and cuts in red tape, sounds all too much like some of the failed programmes of the past… http://www.economist.com/node/21557494?fsrc=scn/tw/te/ar/relegationforalbion
Today – SPUs are down 5.40 as we write on Schäuble’s rejection of ECB aid to Spain; Japan’s 0.1% decline in June Industrial Production (+1.5% exp) and fatigue from last week’s rally on central bank verbal intervention…Traders will buy dips until Wednesday; then they will react to the Fed Communiqué. After the post-communiqué gyrations, traders will wait for the ECB and BoE decisions on Thursday.
A week and a half ago, JC Penny CEO Ron Johnson said he wants to eliminate human cashiers by 2014.
If retailers start axing human cashiers, one of the primary engines of employment growth over the past “lost decade” will turn to a destroyer of jobs.
Court lets Stockton, Calif. cut retiree health care
A federal bankruptcy judge on Friday cleared the way for Stockton, California to cut health care benefits for retirees while it is in bankruptcy proceedings.
Stockton is seeking Chapter 9 protection from its creditors and said that it would cut retiree health benefits while it reorganizes. Retired employees sued to stop those cuts…
This past Friday I visited with Bill Griffith, Maria Bartiromo and Rick Santelli on CNBC to discuss my views on the latest employment report. My take is somewhat basic in regards to the data - on a macro level the jobs that are being created are temporary, low paying, jobs that do not create long term sustainabilty for economic growth.
As I stated in "Employment: The Macro Trends":
This problem with part-time employment is that it does not increase economic prosperity. Part-time employment, as discussed in the "Labor Hoarding Effect," has been an aggressively used tool by corporations to suppress wage growth, reduce overhead costs and increase profitability. The problem is that with the Affordable Care Act gearing up to start in 2014 even more businesses will resort to part-time employment to reduce the increased health care tax burden. I stated that:
"The issue of 'labor hoarding' is an important phenomenon that is likely obscuring the real weakness in the underlying economy. Without an increase in the demand part of the equation businesses are likely to continue resorting to further productivity increases to stretch the current labor force farther to protect profitability. However, as we may currently be witnessing, businesses may be reaching the limits of what they can do to continue increasing profits at the bottom line while revenue declines at the top. The implications for the financial markets going forward are clearly negative."
There has been little improvement in the number of people working part-time for economic reasons. However, as I stated, such weak employment leads to dependence of government subsidies which explains the rise in disability claims and food stamp participation as individuals seek to make ends meet.
I also discuss my views on the market and where to invest.
- Is The Consumer Really Deleveraging?
- The Great "American" Divide
- 5 Questions That Every Market Bull Should Answer
- The Fallacy Of The Fed Model
- Why You Can't Beat The Index
- There Is No Asset Bubble?
- Market And Investing Wisdoms
- Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Investing Rules
- 10 Immutable Laws Of Money
- The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away
- The Real Housing Recovery Story
- Housing Recovery: What Has Been Forgotten
- The Next Four Years Won't Be As Good As The Last
- Debt And Deficits - Killing Economic Prosperity
- Debt - Driving The Economy Since 1980
- Unemployment 7.8% to 22% - Is There A Better Method?
- 4 Keys To Successful Long Term Investing
- Thoughts On Long Term Investing
- 10 More Years Of Low Returns
- 5 Mistakes That Will Crush Your Retirement Dream
- Beware Of Long Term Investing Advice
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- • Second Recession Horseman Goes Down
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- • QE3 And Bernanke's Folly - Part II
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- • QE3 - Mortgage Rates And Housing
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- ► August (30)
- • The Incredible Lightness Of "Hope"
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- • Corporate Profits Surge At Expense Of Worke...
- • Markets Have Trapped Fed On QE3
- • Will QE 3 Save Us From Recession
- • Consumers Flash Warning Signal
- • Import-Export Prices And Jobless Claims
- • Trade and Mortgage Data - More Evidence Of ...
- • NFIB Weakness And Recession Risks
- • Looking At The Economic Forest
- • Homes: The Case Of M2V And The Elusive Reco...
- • Coming This Fall - The Best Time To Invest
- • Euro Crisis: 366 Days Later
- ► June (25)
- • Consumer Spending Leads To Lower Q2 GDP
- • Q1 GDP - Consumer Weaker As Weather Saves T...
- • Durable Goods - Highly Volatile But Trend T...
- • June Rally Complete - Summer Sell Off Ahead...
- • The Fed And Goldilocks Economic Forecasting
- • Negative Economic Trends Clearing Way For Q...
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Fed Lowers Economic Outl...
- • No Q.E. As Expected - "Twist" Extended
- • No QE3 Tomorrow - Replay Of 2011 Continues
- • CHART OF THE DAY: JOLT Survey And Peak Emp...
- • Have A State Pension? Don't Count On It.
- • Inflation, Dollar And Interest Rates Open D...
- • Retail Sales In Decline
- • Deflationary Presssures Rising - PPI
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Negative Net Export Pric...
- • NFIB - Shows Flaws In Current Policy Mix
- • Why Spain's Bailout May Spell The End Of Th...
- • Trade - A Wholesale And Int'l Disappointmen...
- • Risks To The Market Rebound
- • Forecasting The Rebound And Bottom
- • St. Bernanke's Fight Against The Deflation ...
- • CHART OF THE DAY: US Best Place To Invest
- • ISM Composite - Economic Weakness Returns
- • TheStreet.Com - Gold Run Not Over
- • The Lie That Is Social Security
- ► May (27)
- • Yahoo! Summer Portfolio Management Ideas
- • Yahoo! Low Interest Rates Hurts Economy
- • Fox Business - Tending Your Portfolio
- • CNBC - Eurozone Slowdown Will Impact US
- • Housing Recovery - Hope and Reality
- • Interview - Southwest Airlines, Facebook an...
- • Durable Goods Disappointing
- • 4-Issues For The Market Ahead
- • Richmond Fed Showing More Weakness
- • Sell Signal Confirmed - Initial Targets Set
- • Risk Ratio Indicating More Correction Comin...
- • Confirmed "Sell Signal" Approaches
- • Industrial Production And The Recovery
- • Composite Inflation Index Declines
- • Real Retail Sales Under Pressure
- • Sex, Money and Largesse - The Hidden Depres...
- • Trade Defict - Confirming Weaker Q1 GDP
- • The Clock Is Ticking On The Next Eurozone C...
- • Initial Sell Signal In - Confirmation Is Li...
- • NFIB - Optimistic But Still At Recessionary...
- • Economic Trends Don't Paint A Robust Pictur...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - Dr. Lacy ...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - David Ros...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - Dr. Woody...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - Niall Fer...
- • 3 Likely Triggers Of The Next Recession
- • ISM Report Bucking The Trend
- ► April (19)
- • The "Consumption Dysfunction" Continues
- • Q1 GDP - Weaker Than Expected
- • Social Security Has A Real Problem - Employ...
- • Decline In Durable Goods Indicative Of Broa...
- • Impatience Will Lead To Our Demise
- • Market Cracks Support - Correction Gets Ser...
- • LEI - Slower Growth Of The Growth Update
- • Philly Fed Points To Weaker Profits Ahead
- • Mother Nature's Bail Out Coming To An End
- • 10 More Years Of Low Returns
- • 5 Mistakes That Will Crush Your Retirement ...
- • Earnings Likely To Be "Better Than Expected...
- • Market Hits Support - Now What?
- • The Return Of Economic Weakness
- • The Correction Has Started
- • The "Real" Employment Report - March 2012
- • Now The Media Is Hooked On QE Crack
- • Wave 5 Of The Cyclical Bull Market
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Signs Of Recovery?
- ► March (24)
- • The Consumption Dysfunction
- • WTF! Chart Of The Day
- • An Update On Margin Debt
- • Hyperinflation Isn't A Threat
- • Surprise! Jobs Drive Consumer Confidence
- • Death Of The Gold Bull Market?
- • Housing And The Elusive Recovery
- • LEI - Slower Growth Of The Growth
- • The Long Road Ahead
- • The "Fly" In Ryan's Budget Ointment
- • 1.8 Million Jobs Lost In 2012
- • Why 4% GDP Will Remain Elusive
- • The Stretching Of Limits
- • Rising Costs And Profit Margins
- • Retail Sales - A Lot About Weather
- • Correction: There Has Been No Correction
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Ceridian-UCLA PCI
- • NFIB - Index Up But Internals Weaken
- • Employment Report And The Market
- • Is The Investing Game Rigged?
- • OIl Prices Will Hurt The Consumer
- • Has The Correction Started?
- • The Immediacy Trap
- • 1st Quarter GDP To Be Much Weaker
- ► February (22)
- • Oil Prices WILL Slow The Economy (Revised)
- • Don't Feed The Animals
- • The Housing Recovery In One Index
- • Consumer Sentiment Responds To Market Rally
- • The Straw That Potentially Breaks The Camel...
- • Media Headlines Will Lead You To Ruin
- • Philly Fed Future Activity Points To Weakne...
- • Housing Headlines Improve - Reality Doesn't
- • The "Real" American Dream
- • Industrial Production - The Revival May Hav...
- • Consumer Confidence Has Everything To Do Wi...
- • NFIB - Optimistic But Still In The Foxhole
- • Financial Stress Composite Rising
- • Trade Data Trends Signal Weakness Ahead
- • Consumer Credit And The American Conundrum
- • Is Now The Time To Jump In?
- • Gold - The Technical Rundown
- • Bringing The NILF Mystery To Light
- • Gallop Points To Weaker Employment Report T...
- • Earning Less - Why The Poor Get Poorer
- • ISM - Misses Expectations
- • ADP Signals Weak Job Report Friday
- ► January (23)
- • Chicago ISM - Has The Recovery Peaked?
- • Home Prices Fall Further
- • PCE Points To Weaker GDP Ahead
- • Q4 GDP - "Prognosis Still Negative"
- • Fed Meeting - Reconciling A Weak Economy
- • Why Home Prices Have Much Further To Fall
- • IMF Cuts Global Forecast - US Won't Dodge T...
- • Complacency Risk Is High
- • Prices Paid And Coming Earnings Weakness
- • Housing Is Not Affordable
- • Industrial Production Confirming Changes To...
- • Patiently Waiting For The Golden Cross
- • Consumer Sentiment Rises - Still In Recessi...
- • Why QE3 Won't Help "Average Joe"
- • Industrial Production May Be About To Weake...
- • Consumer Spending May Dissapoint
- • NFIB - Small Businesses More Optimistic
- • Markets Throw Off A Buy Signal
- • The Real Employment Situation Report For De...
- • Improvement In Employment - At Least For No...
- • Markets Getting Over Bought / Over Bullish
- • Market Rallies To Resistance - Now What?
- • ISM & Construction Spending - Modest Improv...
- ► December (19)
- ► 2011 (277)
- ► December (22)
- • 2012 Outlook - Anything Other Than The Apoc...
- • Q3 GDP - "Prognosis Negative"
- • The Eurozone Is Saved?
- • Market Rally To Nowhere
- • Housing Starts Up - Patient Still Critical
- • NAHB Housing Market Index
- • A Little Followed Indicator Hints At Recess...
- • Inflation Pressures Rising In The Core
- • Economic Deluge - Economy Shows Some Positi...
- • Is The Gold Run Over?
- • Import Prices Jump - Recession Odds Increas...
- • NFIB - Bounce Off The Bottom
- • No Holiday Cheer In Retail Sales
- • A Million Dollars Ain't What It Used To Be
- • STA RIsk Ratio Turns Up - We've Seen This B...
- • Consumer Sentiment Ticks Up
- • What Are Initial Claims Not Telling Us?
- • Is Consumer Spending Really Surging?
- • Could Gasoline Prices Trigger A Recession
- • Market Rallies Into EU Meeting
- • ISM Composite Index Ticks Up
- • The Real Employment Situation Report
- ► November (29)
- • Economic Data - Headlines Bullish
- • Markets Surge As World Engages In Global Ba...
- • Was That The Consumer's Last Gasp?
- • Housing - The Margin Effect
- • Economic "Run Down" - Weakness Emerges
- • GDP - Revised Down
- • Is Market Warning Of The Next Lehman Event?
- • EOCI Index Improves - Is It All Clear?
- • Philly Fed Survey - Predicting A Peak In Ea...
- • US Debt To GDP Now 98.9% And Rising
- • Inflation - A Continued Problem For Consume...
- • Economy Shows Tenative Signs Of Improvement
- • Debate - Is US Becoming Japan
- • Presidential And Decennial Cycles - What Ab...
- • Consumer Sentiment Driven By Market Rally
- • Net Export Prices Turn Down
- • What "Average Joe" Really Thinks
- • Blood Bath As Italy Faces Crisis
- • Are Oil Prices Confirming ECRI Recession Ca...
- • Oil Price Spike Update
- • No Joy In NFIB Report
- • Market Vs Economic Cycles And Sector Rotati...
- • Employment - The Good, Bad & Ugly
- • ISM Non-Manufacturing Index - Not Adding Up
- • Productivity Up - Costs Down
- • Fed's Outlook Much Weaker Than Reported
- • Food Stamp Usage Sets New Record
- • Fed Trapped By Inflation
- • Manufacturing Not Showing GDP Strength
- ► October (24)
- • STA Risk Ratio Turns Up
- • Buy Signal Is In - But Move Slowly
- • Recession Still Likely Despite Bump In GDP
- • A Haircut, Boost and Drop
- • New Homes Sales - Glued To The Bottom
- • Consumer Is Key To Next Recession
- • Case-Shiller 20-City Index Flat As HARP Wil...
- • CFNAI - Better But Still Negative
- • Understanding Federal Debt: Point - Counter...
- • Temporary Bounce In Philly Fed Confirmed By...
- • Inflation Rises Along With Housing Hopes
- • Snipe Hunting In The Housing Market
- • Der Spiegel is Der Wrong
- • Inventories, Sentiment and Sales - Behind T...
- • The Empire Is Tarnished
- • A JOLT To The System
- • NFIB and PCI - More Signs Of Weakness
- • 1929-45 Vs Today - Following The Same Path
- • Unemployment Report Worse Than It Looks
- • Bearish Sentiment Abounds
- • ISM Composite Index - Been Here Before
- • Yield Spread Confirming Recession Call
- • Market Breaks Its Neck
- • ISM Manufacturing Index - Backlog Drawdown ...
- ► September (34)
- • 5 Months Down - Time For A Bounce?
- • Economic Trifecta - But No Winners
- • Economy Upticks & Jobless Claims Fall
- • Gallup - Economic Confidence Slides
- • Can Margin Debt Give Us A Clue On Market Di...
- • Euro Tarp - Why It Will Be A Screaming Fail...
- • Consumer Doldrums
- • Chicago Fed National Activity "Slowing Down...
- • End Of Week Technical Wrap Up
- • The Yield Spread Is Lying About The Coming ...
- • Leading Indicators Predict Weaker Economy
- • Why The Fed's "Silver Bullet" Won't Kill Th...
- • Fed Buy's Paltry $ 400 Billion - Need A Hug...
- • Market Weak - Waiting On The Fed
- • Housing Still A Drag
- • Consumer Confidence Remains At Lowest Level...
- • Coordinated Central Bank Intervention Creat...
- • Philly Fed Survey - Predicting Recession
- • CPI Rises - Inflation Hits Home
- • Consumers Tapping Out Savings To Spend
- • PPI - Pushing A Slowdown
- • NFIB Confidence Slides Lower
- • Export Prices Still A Negative For The Econ...
- • The Great American Economic Lie
- • High Yield Spread Signaling Recession
- • The Economy Weakens More
- • Obama's $ 400 Billion For Jobs And Counting
- • Trade Deficit - Points To Possible Uptick I...
- • Another Domino Falls For The Market
- • Corporate Profits Are In Trouble
- • Are Stocks Undervalued?
- • European Markets Down Sharply
- • Jobs - What Jobs?
- • Why Unemployment Is About To Surge
- ► August (38)
- • Market Bounce OR New Bull Market
- • Chicago ISM Confirms Weakness
- • Consumer Confidence Collapses - Again
- • Personal Incomes Still Under Pressure
- • Annotated Bernanke Speech - The Elusive Eco...
- • Corporate Profits - Hinting At Recession
- • GDP - Revised Down
- • The Deficit Spending Trap
- • Will Ben Go For Another Round Of QE?
- • Boomers - Are Going To Be A Real Drag
- • No Job = No New House
- • Beware Of Long Term Investing Advice
- • Technical Market Overview
- • EOCI Index Now At Recession Levels
- • Composite Inflation Index Warning Of Slower...
- • 7 Things That Make Me Worried
- • The Difference Between "WHAT" and "WHEN"
- • Empire Fed Index - 3 Strikes You're Out
- • Rosenberg On The Economy
- • Consumer Confidence Collapses
- • Trade Deficit Points To Sub-1% 2nd Qtr GDP
- • 7 Things My Mom Taught Me About Investing
- • Blood In The Streets - Part II
- • Ceridian UCLA Consumer Pulse - Going Flatli...
- • Market Bounce - Was It Stealth QE3?
- • FOMC Meeting Ends - No Change To Stance
- • NFIB Survey Says...Higher Taxes Won't Work
- • Panic Attack! Markets Extremely Oversold
- • Employment Report Less Than Meets The Eye
- • Market Trashed Again! Panic Hits.
- • Recession Almost A Certainty
- • QE 3 Coming - But Won't Save The Economy
- • Yield Curves & The Fed Model
- • ISM Composite Index - Continues Decline
- • Market Trashed - What Now?
- • Personal Income Under Pressure
- • ISM - Clinging On For Dear Life
- • Debt Deal - A Complete Failure
- ► July (38)
- • We Are All Guessing
- • Dismal Economic Numbers
- • 10 Lessons Learned From Poker
- • STA Risk Ratio - Still On Sell Signal
- • GDP - 2nd Quarter Estimate
- • Consumer Un-Confidence
- • Are We Headed For A Second Recession? Upda...
- • Chicago Fed National Activity Index Confirm...
- • Decline In Profits Leads Index
- • EOC Index Shows Economic Weakness
- • Help Wanted - Not So Much
- • Existing Home Sales - A Resumption Of Decli...
- • Housing Starts - Bouncing Along The Bottom
- • You Can't Have A Jobless Recovery
- • NAHB Housing Index - No Signs Of Life
- • Commentary: A Default Would Devastate D.C.-...
- • Tax Reform -The Overlooked Solution
- • Empire Index - Harbinger Of Bad Things To C...
- • Consumers Believe It's Really A Recession
- • Inflation Index Flashes Warning
- • Bernanke Gives US Congress "The Finger"
- • Retail Sales & Jobless Claims
- • Why The Trade Deficit Is Warning Of Weak GD...
- • QE 3 - "To Infinity And Beyond"
- • No Fear - That's Not A Good Thing
- • More Fed Stimulus - As Expected
- • NFIB - No Jobs For You
- • Why Economists Don't Have A Clue About Jobs
- • Raising Taxes Won't Raise Revenue
- • Why The Jobs Report Is Worse Than It Seems
- • Why Oil Price Spikes "Feel" Worse
- • The Average Investor Doesn't Stand A Chance
- • How To Just Get By On Food Stamps
- • Jobless Still Jobless- Teens Hired For The ...
- • ISM Composite Index Showing Contraction
- • Outperforming The Market By 30% With No Ris...
- • ISM Report - Little To Be Excited About
- • Greenspan - QE Was A Failure
- ► June (38)
- • Market Failed At Resistance - Now What?
- • Full Employment - Hope vs Reality
- • Existing Home Sales Reflect Balance Sheet R...
- • Myths Of Retirement Planning
- • Implications Of Household Debt Deleveraging
- • LEI Warning Of Economic Stumbling Economy
- • Greece Ripple Effects Could Create US Finan...
- • Consumer Confidence Falls
- • Economy Failing Right On Time
- • New Home Starts - It's The Job Market Stupi...
- • Composite Price Index - Pushing Upper Limit...
- • Empire Composite Index Signals Economic Con...
- • PPI - Ratio Pointing To Economic Weakness
- • NFIB Employment Expectations Dispells 5% Ec...
- • Trade Deficit - A Roadmap To Economic Stren...
- • How Far Might A Bounce Go?
- • What Is Really Driving The Weakness In The ...
- • Obama Says He Has No Fear Of A Double Dip
- • NYSE Margin Debt
- • Beranke Speech - A Prelude To QE 3
- • Don't Get Suckered!
- • QE3 - Just A Matter Of Time
- • Job Report Shocker
- • Where's My Bottom
- • STA Risk Ratio Indicator Update - Still Cor...
- • ISM Composite Index Confirmed Market Top
- • Not The American Dream I Was Told About
- • Never Buy Stocks Again? Seriously?
- • Where Is The Confidence?
- • ISM Manufacturing Report Hits The Brakes
- • A Weaker Dollar Equals A Weaker Economy
- • Market Bounce
- • SF Bay Bridge - "Made In China"
- • Consumer Confidence At Recession Levels
- • The Decline Of The American "Saver"
- • Greece Fire - NY Post
- • The Breaking Point
- • Financial Profits Reduce Economic Prosperit...
- ► May (32)
- • Consumer Confidence Falls
- • Slide In Corporate Profits - Part II
- • Personal Incomes Still Feeding The Gas Tank
- • Change In Corporate Profits Leads To Market...
- • Economic Surprises - The Wrong Kind
- • New Orders For Durable Goods - Another Nail...
- • STA Buy/Sell Indicator Flashes Sell Signal
- • New Home Sales Not Inspiring
- • STA Economic Output Index Takes A Plunge
- • Debt To GDP And A Sustainable Level
- • The Virtuous Cycle Of The Economy
- • Economy Shifting Into Slower Gear
- • 7 Impossible Trading Rules To Follow
- • Housing Starts Fall - Again
- • Cyclical Bull Markets In Secular Bear Marke...
- • Empire Manufacturing Index
- • More Inflation For Consumers!
- • Headline Inflation Pushing Up
- • Weakness In GDP Continues (X-M)
- • Small Business Optimism Getting Worse!
- • Import Prices Flashing Warning Signal
- • Home Prices Following The Path To Destructi...
- • The Hyperinflation Index
- • Unemployment Rate Climbs To 9.0%
- • The Link Between Productivity & Jobs
- • Commodities Stumble
- • Jobless Claims Jump
- • ISM Composite Index vs S&P 500
- • ADP & ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Have A Lo...
- • Gallup: More Than Half Of Americans Still S...
- • "Let Them Eat IPads"
- • Have We Seen The Peak In This Business Cycl...
- ► April (22)
- • Fallacy Of The Falling Dollar
- • 1.8% GDP Not So Great!
- • Bernanke's Folly - High Oil Prices Are Flee...
- • Consumer Confidence - STILL Not So Confiden...
- • Tracking The Next Gasoline Induced Recessio...
- • New Home Sales Tick Up
- • STA Risk Ratio Throwing Off Warning Signal
- • The Philly Fed Survery Says....#&^%@!!
- • Americans Receive MORE In Government Handou...
- • NYSE Margin Debt Reaching Danger Zone
- • Housing Starts Not Starting
- • Pitchfork and Torches For The Rich
- • S&P Downgrades US Credit Outlook To Negativ...
- • Why You Can't Invest For The "Long Term"
- • Jobless Claims & PPI - Not Looking Better
- • Who Pays The Taxes!
- • Retail Sales Confirms Consumer Weakness
- • Gallop Poll Confirms NFIB Index - Economy S...
- • Small Business Still Not Optomistic
- • Trade Deficit Narrows - But Not In A Good W...
- • NYSE Margin Debt Climbs
- • High Commodity Prices Not The Result Of The...
- ► December (22)