David Stockman: The Next Economic Collapse
- Written by Alex Daley | Wednesday, July 25, 2012
When Casey Research Chief Technology Investment Analyst Alex Daley met former Reagan Budget Director David Stockman to talk about the economy and where he sees it leading taxpayers investors and savers in the near future, he got some very intriguing insights from a man who served right at the heart of the US federal government.
True, some if it makes for uncomfortable watching, but the message is critical if you want to keep your assets safe in what David calls calls "the great unwind."
Watch the video and secure your money.
Who is really pulling the strings in our politicized economy, and what should individual savers do immediately to make sure they have the best protection for their assets when the consequences unfold?
Navigating the Politicized Economy – A Casey Research/Sprott Inc. Summit
The forthcoming Casey Research summit features former White House official David Walker, who is speaking out against irresponsible government spending. David was the United States Comptroller General from 1998 to 2008.
Joining David Walker will be an impressive panel of financial experts, including top market strategist Donald Coxe, celebrated bond investor Lacy Hunt, and investing legends Doug Casey, Rick Rule, and Eric Sprott... and that's just for openers.
Together, they'll help you understand where our politicized economy is today, where it's going, and how to protect yourself and profit from the whole fiasco.
Interviewed by Alex Daley, Chief Technology Investment Strategist, Casey Research
Alex Daley: Hello. I'm Alex Daley. Welcome to another edition of Conversations with Casey. Today our guest is former Reagan Budget Director and Congressman David Stockman. Welcome to the show, David.
David Stockman: Glad to be here.
Alex: So we're here in Florida talking at the Recovery Reality Check Casey Summit. What do you think: is the United States economy on the road to recovery?
David: I don't think we are at the beginning of the recovery. I think we are at the end of a disastrous debt supercycle that has gone on for the last thirty or forty years, really. It started when Nixon defaulted on our obligations under Bretton Woods and closed the gold window. Incrementally, year after year since then, we have been going in a direction of extremely unsound money, of massive borrowing in both the private and the public sector. We now have an economy that is saturated with debt: $54 trillion or $53 trillion – 3.5 times the GDP – way off the charts from where it was for a hundred years prior to the beginning of this. The idea that somehow all of that debt is irrelevant, as the Keynesians would tell us, is fundamentally wrong – and the reason why the economy can't get up off the mat.
We're doing all the wrong things. We're adding to the problem, not subtracting. We are not allowing the debt to be worked down and liquidated. We're not asking people to save more and consume less, which is what we really need to do. And so therefore I think policy is just making it worse, and any day now we will have another recurrence of the kind of economic crisis we had a few years ago.
Alex: You paint a very stark picture, but if people just stop spending, start saving, won't companies like Apple see their earnings hurt? Won't the stock market then start to tumble, people's net worth fall? Isn't that a negative cycle that feeds on itself?
David: Sure it does, but you can't live beyond your means because it's pleasant. It's not sustainable. Clearly the level of debt that we have is not sustainable. We have a whole generation – the Baby Boom – that's about ready to retire, and they have no retirement savings. We have a federal government that is bankrupt, literally. Its [debt is] $16 trillion and growing by a trillion a year. Something's going to give. We can't pay for all these entitlements. There won't be the revenue generation in the economy to do it.
So as a result of that, we are deluding ourselves if we think we can just continue to spend. Look at the GDP that came out in the first quarter of this year. It was only 2.2%. Most of it was personal consumption expenditure, and half of that was due to a drawdown of the savings rate, not because the economy was earning more income or generating more real output. It was because of a drawdown of savings. That is exactly the wrong way to go – an indication of how severe the crisis is going to be.
I'm not saying the economy should stop spending entirely. I'm only saying you can't save 3% of GDP and spend 97% if you are going to get out of this fix. As the savings rate goes up both in the public sector (which means reduction of spending and the deficit) and the household sector (to seriously reduce debt burden, which has not really happened) we are going to, on the margin, spend less, save more. It will slow down the economy. It will undermine profits, I agree. But profits today are way overstated. They're based on a debt-bloated economy that isn't sustainable.
Alex: So we can only live beyond our means for so long, as any family knows.
Alex: Now, the government can reduce its expenses at any time by simply reducing spending, and it can reduce debt if it brings in more tax revenue. That's austerity – I think that's how they refer to it. But won't austerity cause massive joblessness? Won't there be millions more people in this country not receiving a paycheck?
David: Yes, but the critique, the clamoring and clattering that you hear from the Keynesians (or even mainstream media, which is pretty clueless economically) that austerity is bad forgets the fact that austerity isn't an elective course. Austerity is something that happens to you when you're broke. And yes, it is painful and spending will go down and unemployment will go up and incomes will be impaired, but that is a consequence of the excess debt creation that we've had for the last thirty years. So austerity is what happens when you break the rules.
And somehow we have this debate going on. They're making a mistake. They chose the wrong strategy. Do you think Greece chose the wrong strategy with austerity? No. No one would lend them money. That's why they ended up in the place they were. Do you think that Spain today is teetering on the brink because they said, "Oh, wouldn't it be a good idea to have austerity?" No, they had a gun to their head. They were forced to do this because the markets would not continue to lend, and even now their interest rate is again rising. The markets are losing confidence, and unless the ECB prints some more money and bails them out some more, they are going to have austerity. So the austerity upon us is the backside of the debt supercycle we had for the past thirty years. It's not discretionary.
Alex: Austerity hasn't been forced upon us yet. The dollar is up, people are continuing to buy Treasuries – both nations and banks are buying Treasuries. To all extents and purposes, people are continuing to show massive confidence in the US government, lend it money at extremely cheap interest rates, and letting it build up its debt.
So you are advocating that, unlike Greece or Spain taking it to the edge and having austerity forced on them, we should volunteer for austerity today? Instead of just kicking the can down the road and living high a little bit longer, until the bill collectors finally come knocking? Why go today, why start austerity now instead of doing what Greece did and going as long as you possibly can?
David: Because Greece is a $300 billion economy. Tiny. A rounding error in the great scheme of things. It's – last time I checked – about eight and a half months' worth of Walmart sales. Okay? That's a little different than when you have the $15 trillion heartland of the world economy, and the $11 trillion Treasury market which is at the center of the whole global financial system buckle and falter. That's the risk you're taking if you say, "Mañana. Kick the can; let's just wait for something good to happen."
This market isn't real. The two percent on the ten-year, the ninety basis points on the five-year, thirty basis points on a one-year – those are medicated, pegged rates created by the Fed and which fast-money traders trade against as long as they are confident the Fed can keep the whole market rigged. Nobody in their right mind wants to own the ten-year bond at a two percent interest rate. But they're doing it because they can borrow overnight money for free, ten basis points, put it on repo, collect 190 basis points a spread, and laugh all the way to the bank. And they will keep laughing all the way to the bank on Wall Street until they lose confidence in the Fed's ability to keep the yield curve pegged where it is today. If the bond ever starts falling in price, they unwind the carry trade. They unwind the repo, because then you can't collect 190 basis points.
Then you get a message, "Do not pass go." Sell your bonds, unwind your overnight debt, your repo positions. And the system then begins to contract – exactly what happened in September and October of 2008. Only, that time it was an unwind to the repo on mortgage-backed securities and CDOs and so forth. That was a minor trial run for the great unwind that is going to happen when the Treasury market is finally shattered with a lack of confidence because, on the margin, no one owns a Treasury bond: they just rent it on borrowed money. If the price starts falling, they'll get out of that trade as fast as they got out of toxic CDOs.
Alex: So when people run away from the US, they will run away all at once.
David: Well, if they run away from the Treasury, it sends compounding forces of contagion through the entire financial system. It hits next the MBS and the mortgage market. The mortgage market then scares the hell out of people about the housing recovery, which hasn't happened anyway. And if there isn't a housing recovery, middle-class Main-Street confidence isn't going to recover, because it is the only asset they have, and for 25 million households it's under water or close to under water.
Alex: We saw something much like that in 2008. All the markets correlated. Stocks went down. Bonds went down. Gold went down with them. It sounds like what you're saying is that the Fed is effectively paying bankers to stay confident in the Fed, and that the moment that stops – either because the Fed stops paying them or something else shakes their confidence – this all goes down in one big house of cards?
David: Yes, I think that's right. The Fed has destroyed the money market. It has destroyed the capital markets. They have something that you can see on the screen called an "interest rate." That isn't a market price of money or a market price of five-year debt capital. That is an administered price that the Fed has set and that every trader watches by the minute to make sure that he's still in a positive spread. And you can't have capitalism if the capital markets are dead, if the capital markets are simply a branch office – branch casino – of the central bank. That's essentially what we have today.
Alex: Last night you told our audience that if you were elected president, the first thing you would do is quit. Or at least demand a recount, I believe were your words, which I thought was telling. Are you saying there are no policy changes we could make today that would get us out of this? Or at least that wouldn't get you assassinated?
David: Yeah, there is a paper blueprint. People who believe in sound money and fiscal responsibility, that you create wealth the old-fashioned way through savings and work and effort and not simply by printing money and trading pieces of paper – there is a plan that they could put together. One would be to put the Fed out of business. You don't have to "end the Fed," although I like Ron Paul's phrase. You have to get them out of discretionary, active, day-to-day meddling in the money markets. Abolish the Open Market Committee.
The Fed has taken its balance sheet to $3 trillion. That's enough for the next 50 years. They don't have to do a damn thing except maybe have a discount window that floats above the market, and if things get tight, let the interest rate go up. People who have been speculating will be carried out on a stretcher. That's how they used to do it. It worked prior to 1914. That's the first step: abolish the Open Market Committee. Abolish discretionary monetary policy.
Let the Fed, if you're going to keep it – I don't even know that you need to do that, but if you are going to keep it – be only a standby source. As Badgett said (Walter Badgett, the great 19th-century British financial thinker): provide liquidity at a penalty rate to sound collateral.
Now, that's what J.P. Morgan did in 1907, in the great crisis of 1907, from his library. He didn't have a printing press. He didn't bail out everybody. He didn't do what Bernanke did and say: "Stop the presses, freeze everybody, and prop up Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs and all the rest of the speculators." The interest rate, the call-money interest rate, which was the open-market interest rate at the time, some days went to 30, 40, 70% – and they were carrying out the speculators left and right, liquidating margin debt, taking out the real estate speculators. Eight or ten railroads went bankrupt within a couple of months. The copper magnates got carried out on their shields.
This is the only way a capital market can work, but it needs an honest interest rate. And we have no interest rate, so therefore we solve nothing and we have the kind of impaired, incapacitated markets that we have today. They're very dangerous, because they're all dependent on twelve people. It is what I call "the monetary Politburo of the Western world," and they are just as dangerous as the Politburo in Beijing or the Politburo of memory in Moscow.
Alex: A twelve-person Open Market Committee determining the future of our economy by manipulating rates. Sounds like central planning to me.
David: It is. They are monetary central planners who are attempting to use the crude instrument of interest-rate pegging and yield-curve manipulation and essentially buying debt that no one else would buy, in order to keep this whole system afloat. It's Ponzi economics. Anybody who had financial training before 1970 would instantly recognize this as Ponzi economics. It is only because of the last twenty years we got so inured to prosperity out of the end of a printing press and massive incremental debt that people lost sight of the fundamental principles of sound money, which, there's nothing arcane about it. It's just common sense. It is not common sense to think that 50, 60, 70% of all the debt that's being created by the federal government can be bought by the Federal Reserve, stuffed in a vault, and everybody can live happily ever after.
Alex: So the government has certainly put us in a precarious position, but I don't think they alone have put America in this position, have they? You mentioned consumer debt becoming a major burden on the economy. How do we shed ourselves of that? I mean, the federal government can repudiate its debts if we walk away from it. We might see a few wars or something from that. It could inflate its way out of it. It can tax its way out of it. But how do households get out from under the debt burden that they have today?
David: Well, it's very tough, and they were lured into it by bad monetary policy when Greenspan panicked in December 2000. The interest rate was 6.5%; we had an economy that was threatened by competitors around the world. We needed high interest rates, not low. He panicked after the dot-com crash, and as you remember in two years they took the interest rate all the way down to 1%, and they catalyzed an explosion of mortgage borrowing, which was crazy.
When they cut the final rate down to 1% in May, June 2003, in that quarter – the second quarter of 2003 – the run rate of mortgage borrowing was $5 trillion at an annual rate. That was nuts! There had never been even a trillion-dollar annual rate of mortgage borrowing previously. In that quarter the run rate was $5 trillion, 40% of GDP. Why? Because the Fed took the rate down to 1%. Floating-rate product got invented everywhere. Anybody that had a pulse was being given mortgage loans by the brokers. The mortgage brokers didn't have any capital or funding. They went to Wall Street. They got warehouse lines, and the whole thing got out of control. Millions of households were lured into taking on debt that was insane, and now we have a generation of debt slaves.
There are 25 million households in America who couldn't move if they wanted to, because their mortgages are under water. They cannot generate a down payment and the 5% or 6% broker fee that you need to move. So we've got 25 million households immobilized, paralyzed, and worried every day about when they are going to lose property, because of what the Fed did. It's a terrible indictment.
Alex: Mobility itself is the American dream, isn't it? It's the ability to pick up and find work and then move and do all that. So now we have people who are slaves to their debt. How do we get ourselves out of this? Is this just a matter of personal financial discipline? Is there a policy move that can happen?
David: It's policy. If we don't do something about the Fed, if we don't drive the Bernankes and the Dudleys and the Yellens and the rest of these lunatic money-printers out of the Federal Reserve and get it under the control of people who have at least a modicum of sanity, we are just going to bury everybody deeper.
It's unfortunate. The American people are as much a victim of the Fed's massive errors as anything else. People were not prudent when they took on debt at 100% of the peak value of their property at some moment in 2004 and 2005. They were lured into it. But now we're stuck with something that didn't need to happen.
Alex: The Federal Reserve was founded in 1914, and it saw America through World War I, World War II. It saw America through Vietnam, saw America through the biggest boom in the economic history of the world. Yet now, today, you are calling for the abolishment of the Fed. Wasn't the Fed here the entire time that America was a prosperous, growing, wealthy, technology-driven nation? What's changed?
David: The greatest period of growth in American history was 1870-1914 – the Fed didn't exist. Right after 1870, when we recovered from the Civil War we went back on the gold standard. It worked pretty well. World War I was a catastrophe for the financial system. The Fed financed it, but I don't give them any credit for that, okay? We shouldn't have been in that war. It was a stupid thing to get involved in. But once we got involved in it, the Fed printed money like crazy, it facilitated borrowing, set the groundwork for the boom of the 1920s and the collapse of the 1930s.
Even then though, we had great minds who coped with reality in a pragmatic way in the Fed. Even Marriner Eccles wasn't all that bad. He stood up to Truman in 1951, when Truman wanted to force the Fed to continue to peg interest rates at 2% or 2.5% when inflation was 5%. Then we had William McChesney Martin: brilliant, pragmatic. He wasn't some kind of gold-standard guy in a pure sense, but a pragmatic guy who understood that prosperity had to come out of private productivity, out of investment, out of risk-taking, and the Fed had to be very careful not to allow speculation to start or inflation to get ignited. In 1958, he invented the phrase, "The job of the Fed is to take the punchbowl away." And we had a small recession. Six months after the recession was over he was actually raising the margin rate on the stock-market loans in order to quell speculation, and raising interest rates so that the economy didn't start to inflate again.
Now that was the regime we had until, unfortunately, Lyndon Johnson came along with his "guns and butter," took William McChesney Martin down to the ranch, and beat the hell out of him and forced him to capitulate. But here's the point I would make: In 1960, at the peak of what I call the golden era – the twilight of fiscal and financial discipline – we had $30 billion on the balance sheet of the Fed. It had taken 45 years to build that up. Then, as they began to rapidly expand the balance sheet of the Fed during the inflation of the '70s and the '80s, even then it took us until September 2008 – the Lehman collapse – to get to $900 billion. Had the balance sheet only grown at 3%, which is what the capacity of the economy to grow, I think, really is, it would have been $300 billion, so they were overshooting.
Alex: We're three times where we should be.
David: Where we should have been by the Lehman crisis event. In the next seven weeks, this crazy lunatic who's running the Fed increased the balance sheet of the Fed by $900 billion, in seven weeks. In other words, they expanded the balance sheet of the Fed as rapidly in seven weeks as it had occurred during the first 93 years of its existence. And that's not all, as they say on late night TV: in the next six weeks they added another $900 billion. So in thirteen weeks they tripled the balance sheet of the Fed.
Alex: Wow, that's an incredible…
David: So no wonder we are in totally uncharted waters, and it's being run by people who are clueless as to how to get out of the corner they've painted this country into. They really ought to be run out of town on a rail.
Alex: I think you'd find that a lot of our viewers would agree with you on that one. You know, the average American is suffering. It looks like the average American is going to have to suffer more to get us out of this, but it seems like the only thing the Fed is interested in these days is propping up the stock market. Why is that? Where does that come from?
David: The Fed has taken itself hostage with this whole misbegotten doctrine of wealth effects, which was created by Greenspan. In other words, if we get the stock market going up and we get the stock averages going up, people feel wealthier, they will spend more. If they spend more, there is more production and income and you get a virtuous circle. Well, that says you can create wealth through speculation. That can't be true, because if it is true, we should have had a totally different kind of system than we've had historically.
So they got into that game, and then the crisis came in September, 2008. They panicked and pulled out the stops everywhere. As I said, tripled the balance sheet in thirteen weeks, [compared to what] they had done in 93 years. They are now at a point where they don't dare begin to reduce the balance sheet, begin to contract, or they'll cause Wall Street to go into a hissy fit. They are afraid to death of Wall Street going into a hissy fit, so essentially, the robots and the boys and girls and the fast-money traders on Wall Street run the Fed indirectly.
Alex: So, in the 1960s, the Fed is taking away the punchbowl. Sounds like in 2010 the Fed is the one adding the alcohol. They are afraid to stop, lest everybody riot.
David: Yes, they got the party going, and they're afraid to stop it. As a result of that you have a doomsday machine.
Alex: At some point we are going to be forced to stop. Market forces will kick in and Europe and China and India will stop lending us money.
David: Yes. As I say, when the crisis comes in the Treasury market, it will be the great margin call in the sky. They'll start unwinding all of the carry trades, all of the repo. Asset prices generally will be affected, because this will ricochet and compound through the system.
Alex: When does this happen?
David: People looked at the housing market and the mortgage market way back in 2003 – there were some smart people looking at this. They looked at the run rate of gross mortgage issuance, the $5 trillion I was talking about, and said: "This is insane, this is off the charts, this is so far beyond anything that has ever happened before, something bad is going to come of this." It's obvious, if you pour debt into markets… I mean a lot of people leveraged 98%, or whatever they were doing at the time with so-called mortgage insurance, and just high loan to value ratios. They were driving up prices, and so there was a housing-price boom going on. It was sucking the whole middle class into speculation. So that's the nature of the system, and now they don't know how to unwind it.
Alex: That's a pretty stark picture. So as an individual investor, what are we to do? How do we protect ourselves in this type of situation? Should I be owning bonds and staying out of stocks? Should I be owning stocks?
David: No, I would stay out of any security markets. These are unsafe markets at any speed. It's all tied together. As I was saying when the great margin call comes and they start selling the Treasury bond, they'll take everything else with it. Real estate is priced off Treasuries. Mortgaged-backed securities are priced off Treasuries. Corporates are priced off Treasuries. Junk bonds are priced off Treasuries. Everything. The stock market will go into a panic. We don't know when the timing will come – we've never been in a world where there is $15 trillion worth of central-bank balance sheets, like we have today. The only thing I think you can conclude is preservation is the only thing you are about as an investor. Forget about yield. Forget about return. Just keep yourself liquid and preserve your capital, because you can't predict the day when, as I say, the great margin call in the sky comes down.
Alex: So if it's not about coming out ahead, it's about coming out not behind everybody else. It's just losing a little less. What's the most effective way to do that? Do you want to hold cash? Alternative options?
David: Yes. I don't even think there's nothing wrong with owning Treasury bills. I mean, if you want to get, for a one-year Treasury, what is the thing now? Twenty basis points or something?
Alex: So when the great Treasury crash comes, I should own Treasury bills?
David: Well, it doesn't mean the price of the Treasury is going to crash, no.
Alex: Okay, so we are just going to see interest rates skyrocket on new issues. The US government is not going to be able to borrow.
David: That's why you're short. If you're in a thirty-day piece of paper, you're not going to lose principal.
Alex: What happens to the dollar in all of this? If I'm holding dollar denominated assets –?
David: Well, the dollar, in theory, people would think is going to crash. I don't think it is because all the rest of the currencies in the world are worse.
Alex: So once again, America is not that bad off.
David: Well, we're bad off because when the financial markets reprice drastically, it's going to have a shocking effect on economic activity. It's going to paralyze things. It's going to finally cause consumption to come down. It's going to cause government spending to be retracted.
You know, the Keynesians are right. Borrowing does add to GDP accounts. But it doesn't add to wealth. It doesn't add to real productivity, but it does add to GDP as it's calculated and published – because GDP accounts were designed by Keynesians who don't believe in a balance sheet. So they said, "If the public sector and the household sector are borrowing, let's say, $10 trillion next year, run it though GDP, you'll get a big bump to GDP." But sooner or later your balance sheet will collapse. They forgot about that one. So my point is that we've gone through a thirty-year expansion of the balance sheet, an artificial growth in GDP; now we're going to have to be retracting the collective balance sheets. That means that GDP will not grow. It may even contract, and no one's prepared for that.
Alex: So the economy will collapse. The dollar will be okay, because we still need a medium of exchange and the dollar is the least-bad currency in the world. How does gold fit into the picture? Do you think that gold is a good asset?
David: Yes, I think that gold is a good asset. It's the only currency that anybody is going to believe in after a while.
Alex: Okay, so maybe hold that as an insurance policy. Do you own gold yourself?
David: Yes, as an insurance policy.
Alex: Where else do you invest in today?
David: I'm preserving capital. I'm in cash. I don't think the risk of the system is worth it.
Alex: So you are practicing what you preach, 100%?
Alex: That's great. It's good to hear. This is excellent advice for our subscribers as well, to consider that there's a lot of potential energy built up in the system. You've articulated it well, a lot of painful policy moves ahead of us, and probably something that makes 2008 look like a preview, if you will.
David: It was just a warm-up.
Alex: Just a warm-up. Thank you very much.
David: Thank you.
This past Friday I visited with Bill Griffith, Maria Bartiromo and Rick Santelli on CNBC to discuss my views on the latest employment report. My take is somewhat basic in regards to the data - on a macro level the jobs that are being created are temporary, low paying, jobs that do not create long term sustainabilty for economic growth.
As I stated in "Employment: The Macro Trends":
This problem with part-time employment is that it does not increase economic prosperity. Part-time employment, as discussed in the "Labor Hoarding Effect," has been an aggressively used tool by corporations to suppress wage growth, reduce overhead costs and increase profitability. The problem is that with the Affordable Care Act gearing up to start in 2014 even more businesses will resort to part-time employment to reduce the increased health care tax burden. I stated that:
"The issue of 'labor hoarding' is an important phenomenon that is likely obscuring the real weakness in the underlying economy. Without an increase in the demand part of the equation businesses are likely to continue resorting to further productivity increases to stretch the current labor force farther to protect profitability. However, as we may currently be witnessing, businesses may be reaching the limits of what they can do to continue increasing profits at the bottom line while revenue declines at the top. The implications for the financial markets going forward are clearly negative."
There has been little improvement in the number of people working part-time for economic reasons. However, as I stated, such weak employment leads to dependence of government subsidies which explains the rise in disability claims and food stamp participation as individuals seek to make ends meet.
I also discuss my views on the market and where to invest.
- Is The Consumer Really Deleveraging?
- The Great "American" Divide
- 5 Questions That Every Market Bull Should Answer
- The Fallacy Of The Fed Model
- Why You Can't Beat The Index
- There Is No Asset Bubble?
- Market And Investing Wisdoms
- Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Investing Rules
- 10 Immutable Laws Of Money
- The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away
- The Real Housing Recovery Story
- Housing Recovery: What Has Been Forgotten
- The Next Four Years Won't Be As Good As The Last
- Debt And Deficits - Killing Economic Prosperity
- Debt - Driving The Economy Since 1980
- Unemployment 7.8% to 22% - Is There A Better Method?
- 4 Keys To Successful Long Term Investing
- Thoughts On Long Term Investing
- 10 More Years Of Low Returns
- 5 Mistakes That Will Crush Your Retirement Dream
- Beware Of Long Term Investing Advice
daily exchange archives
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- • March Spending Driven By Surge In Services
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- • Durable Goods: Another Straw For The Camel
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- • Random Observations & Rising Risks
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- • Chart Of The Day: ISM Composite Index
- • Why You Can't Beat The Index
- • The Great Disconnect: Markets Vs. Economy
- ► March (19)
- • The 2012 Compendium Of Tax Filing Tips
- • Economic Data Shows Underlying Weakness
- • Fox26 - What Should Investors Be Doing Righ...
- • Chart Of The Day: Reality Vs Belief
- • Fed's Economic Projections - Myth Vs Realit...
- • Fox Business News - The Cyprus Effect
- • The Fed Has Already Imposed A "Cyprus Tax" ...
- • COTD: Risk Ratio Pushing Extremes
- • Fox Business News/Melissa Francis - Is Now ...
- • S&P Hits 1560 Target As Risks Rise
- • Digging Behind The February Retail Sales Re...
- • NFIB: "No Sign Of A Surge In Confidence"
- • The Real February Employment Report - In Pi...
- • What The Markets And Taylor Swift Have In C...
- • Chart Of The Day: Retiree's No Better Off T...
- • Dow At Highs - Buy, Sell or Hold?
- • The Dow - Not Really All Time Highs
- • There Is No Asset Bubble?
- • Personal Incomes & The Decline Of The Ameri...
- ► February (19)
- • Get Ready For The Run To All-Time Highs
- • The Real Story Behind The Bounce In Core Ca...
- • Housing, Confidence & Richmond Fed
- • Economic Recovery And The EOCI Index
- • LEI - Is There A Disconnect?
- • Market And Investing Wisdoms
- • Is It Time To Buy Gold? The Update
- • Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Investing Rule...
- • Global Recession Tugs At U.S. Economy
- • Chart Of The Day: The S&P 500 Wedge Tighten...
- • In Search Of The Economic Recovery
- • Sex, Lies And Money (Video)
- • Why You Should Own Bonds
- • 10 Immutable Laws Of Money
- • Chart Of The Day: Productivity Not Pointing...
- • Economic Indicators Not Reflecting Exuberan...
- • The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few...
- • Fox26 - Stock Market Rally And Buying Tops
- • Seasonal Adjustments Are B.S. - I Can Handl...
- ► January (31)
- • Chart Of The Day: Incomes & The Cliff Effe...
- • Help Wanted Index Pointing To Employment Sl...
- • Was The Election Bought With Taxpayer Dolla...
- • GDP - Digging Into The "Unexpected" Decline
- • Market/Economy - A Few Observations
- • X-Factor Report 1/28/13 - Will The Market E...
- • Is The Consumer Really Deleveraging?
- • LEI - Revisions Show Slower Growth
- • The Visible Hand Of The Fed
- • Chart Of The Day: Economic Policy Uncertai...
- • Chart Of The Day: Richmond Fed Survey
- • The Real Housing Recovery Story
- • Pray The Bond Bubble Doesn't Pop
- • Charts Of The Day: The Economic Recovery S...
- • Bullish Optimism Beginning To Reach Extreme...
- • Getting Started With A Budget
- • Housing, CPI And Why I Only Have A Nickel L...
- • Economic Data - Mixed Bag Of Reports
- • What Are The Odds The Market Will End The Y...
- • Signs Of A Fed Driven Rally
- • Philly Fed Survey - 2012 Revisions Show Muc...
- • Why You Are Powerless Against The Governmen...
- • Consumer Credit - What Deleveraging?
- • NFIB - Higher Taxes Not Included
- • An Argument For The Debt Ceiling
- • Rise Above - Two Outcomes To Debt Ceiling D...
- • Interview W/ Congressman Brady on Fiscal Cl...
- • Heads Or Tails - The 2013 Coin Toss
- • Cliff Deal Charts - Just Charts
- • Cliff Resolved - Deficit Set To Explode
- • Senate "Cliff" Bill Unlikely To Pass House
- ► June (16)
- ► 2012 (282)
- ► December (19)
- • Fox Business - Investing Ahead Of FIscal Cl...
- • Interview With Baker-Patrick On Impact Of F...
- • Consumer Confidence Composite Turns Down
- • Chart Of The Day: Claims Not Translating I...
- • Chart Of The Day: Retail Sales & Excuses
- • "Sandy Effect" Boosts Economic Data
- • Economic Deluge Chart Book
- • Why Reported Inflation Seems Different Than...
- • Chart Of The Day: Sandy Weighs On Empire I...
- • Sandy Effect Pushes Production Higher
- • Fed Downgrades Economic Outlook
- • Trade Deficit - Recession Warning Ticks Up
- • NFIB: More About The Economy Than The Elect...
- • Client Brief: Dealing With Uncertainty
- • Have We Seen The Peak Of Employment?
- • Consumer Debt - Still A Long Way To Go.
- • ISM Composite - Back To Pre-Crash Levels
- • Thought Experiment: Why Obama Wants The Fis...
- • ISM - Outlook Declines
- ► November (23)
- • Personal Income And Spending Weigh On Econo...
- • Bill Ackman: The Basics Of Stock Market In...
- • Q3 GDP - The Devil Is In The Details
- • Housing Recovery: What Has Been Forgotten
- • The Definition Of Insanity: Republicans
- • CFNAI: Not Seeing The Growth Economists' Pr...
- • Chart Of The Day: LEI -- Leading To Laggin...
- • Be Careful Jumping On Bernanke's Bandwagon
- • Market Bounces Off Support - What Now?
- • Chart Of The Day: Decoupling Has Ended
- • Already Weak Manufacturing Impacted By Sand...
- • Retail Sales - You Can't Blame It All On Sa...
- • Personal Finance Seminar Presentation
- • NFIB - Pre-Election Hopes Of Romney Win
- • America Isn't The Greatest Country Anymore
- • "The Star Spangled Banner Is Stupid"
- • Net Export Prices And Wholesale Trade
- • Trade Deficit - Increase In Exports To Be S...
- • Post-Election Wrap Up: Economy and Investi...
- • The Next Four Years Won't Be As Good As The...
- • Recession Probability - 100%
- • ISM Composite, Employment & Black Helicopte...
- • Economic Data Flood - Weakness Behind The H...
- ► October (25)
- • Market Thoughts: Hurricane, Election & Fis...
- • Debt And Deficits - Killing Economic Prospe...
- • Personal Incomes Offset By Rise In Food & E...
- • GDP: The Warning From Exports
- • New Home Sales - Not As Strong As Headlines...
- • Chart Of The Day: Where Do Your Tax Dollars...
- • Richmond Fed Survey - More Evidence Of Weak...
- • Debt - Driving The Economy Since 1980
- • Reviewing Risk/Reward And Entry Targets
- • Chart Of The Day: LEI Coincident-To-Laggin...
- • Philly Fed Bounces - Internals Weaken
- • Housing Starts and Permits: Euphoria May B...
- • Market Rallies As Expected
- • Retail Sales - Not As Strong As Headlines S...
- • Chart Of The Day: JOLT Survey And The Peak ...
- • Trade Deficit - Recession Risks Increase
- • What Wholesale Trade Can Tell Us About 3Q E...
- • Fox Business - Bull/Bear Market Report
- • NFIB - Small Businesses Don't Agree With BL...
- • Unemployment 7.8% to 22% - Is There A Bette...
- • Why The Real Unemployment Rate Is 16.9%
- • Romney Got It Right On Jobs and Taxes
- • What Is The ADS And Why Is It Signaling A R...
- • 3 Major Risks To The 4th Quarter
- • Have Investors Really Missed Anything?
- ► September (25)
- • Second Recession Horseman Goes Down
- • GDP And Durable Goods - Heading To Recessio...
- • Market Sell Off Pushes Toward Support Level...
- • What To Expect From Post-Election Year Mark...
- • Economic Data Continues To Weaken
- • 4 Keys To Successful Long Term Investing
- • QE3 And Bernanke's Folly - Part II
- • Romney Should Be Fighting For The 47%
- • China: A Love-Hate Relationship
- • QE3 - Mortgage Rates And Housing
- • QE3 And Bernanke's Folly - Part I
- • Fed Announces QE - Initial Thoughts
- • Analyzing The ECRI Recession Call
- • Import Prices and Wholesale Trade - Weaknes...
- • Trade Deficit - Exports A Major Concern
- • NFIB - Good News Beneath The Surface
- • CNBC - The Fed, QE3 and Jobs
- • Employment Report - Worse Than It Looks
- • MarketWatch - 3 Factors Deciding The Next P...
- • ECB - A Program To Nowhere
- • When Good Employment News Is Really Bad New...
- • Draghi To Announce Sterilized Bond Purchase...
- • Productivity Increases And The Employment C...
- • ISM and Construction Spending Show Weakness
- • Stage For EuroCrisis Resurgence Being Set
- ► August (30)
- • The Incredible Lightness Of "Hope"
- • PCE - A Tale Of The Consumer
- • Q2 GDP - Nothing Good Happening Here
- • QE3 Mechanism Is Broken
- • Investing For The Next Recession
- • Pigeons At The Table
- • Durable Goods And New Home Sales
- • Monday Reading List
- • Is It Time To Buy Gold?
- • Chart Of The Day: Confidence Waning
- • To The Contrary - QE-3 Is Not Coming Soon
- • Three Things That Will Influence The Electi...
- • No Recession Now - But When?
- • Do You Feel Lucky? Well Do Ya?
- • The Monday Morning Reading List
- • Thoughts On The Market
- • Chasing Yield Can Be Hazardous To Your Reti...
- • Gold, Dollar & Rates Say No QE
- • NFIB - Dear Administration, Are You Listeni...
- • Everything Needs To Go Right
- • End Of Week Economic Data Roundup
- • Want More Tax Revenue? Increase Jobs Not R...
- • Market "Hope" Rally Overbought
- • Are Investors Really That Bearish?
- • Chart Of The Day: Follow The Money
- • Bullish Data Says No Q.E. Coming
- • BLS - Jobs Increase As Businesses Cut
- • Fed And ECB - No Action As Expected
- • CBNC - ECB and Knight Trading Glitch
- • Economic Reports Confirm Deterioration
- ► July (20)
- • Consumer Spending Points To Weaker Employme...
- • FOMC, ECB and Jobs - A Trifecta Of Potentia...
- • 2nd Quarter GDP - Weaker In All The Wrong P...
- • ECB Spurs Short Covering Rally
- • Major Sell Signal Triggered
- • Richmond Fed - Recession Risks Increase
- • CFNAI And Market Update
- • Thoughts On Long Term Investing
- • LEI, Philly Fed, Housing And The 100 Days O...
- • Corporate Profits Surge At Expense Of Worke...
- • Markets Have Trapped Fed On QE3
- • Will QE 3 Save Us From Recession
- • Consumers Flash Warning Signal
- • Import-Export Prices And Jobless Claims
- • Trade and Mortgage Data - More Evidence Of ...
- • NFIB Weakness And Recession Risks
- • Looking At The Economic Forest
- • Homes: The Case Of M2V And The Elusive Reco...
- • Coming This Fall - The Best Time To Invest
- • Euro Crisis: 366 Days Later
- ► June (25)
- • Consumer Spending Leads To Lower Q2 GDP
- • Q1 GDP - Consumer Weaker As Weather Saves T...
- • Durable Goods - Highly Volatile But Trend T...
- • June Rally Complete - Summer Sell Off Ahead...
- • The Fed And Goldilocks Economic Forecasting
- • Negative Economic Trends Clearing Way For Q...
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Fed Lowers Economic Outl...
- • No Q.E. As Expected - "Twist" Extended
- • No QE3 Tomorrow - Replay Of 2011 Continues
- • CHART OF THE DAY: JOLT Survey And Peak Emp...
- • Have A State Pension? Don't Count On It.
- • Inflation, Dollar And Interest Rates Open D...
- • Retail Sales In Decline
- • Deflationary Presssures Rising - PPI
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Negative Net Export Pric...
- • NFIB - Shows Flaws In Current Policy Mix
- • Why Spain's Bailout May Spell The End Of Th...
- • Trade - A Wholesale And Int'l Disappointmen...
- • Risks To The Market Rebound
- • Forecasting The Rebound And Bottom
- • St. Bernanke's Fight Against The Deflation ...
- • CHART OF THE DAY: US Best Place To Invest
- • ISM Composite - Economic Weakness Returns
- • TheStreet.Com - Gold Run Not Over
- • The Lie That Is Social Security
- ► May (27)
- • Yahoo! Summer Portfolio Management Ideas
- • Yahoo! Low Interest Rates Hurts Economy
- • Fox Business - Tending Your Portfolio
- • CNBC - Eurozone Slowdown Will Impact US
- • Housing Recovery - Hope and Reality
- • Interview - Southwest Airlines, Facebook an...
- • Durable Goods Disappointing
- • 4-Issues For The Market Ahead
- • Richmond Fed Showing More Weakness
- • Sell Signal Confirmed - Initial Targets Set
- • Risk Ratio Indicating More Correction Comin...
- • Confirmed "Sell Signal" Approaches
- • Industrial Production And The Recovery
- • Composite Inflation Index Declines
- • Real Retail Sales Under Pressure
- • Sex, Money and Largesse - The Hidden Depres...
- • Trade Defict - Confirming Weaker Q1 GDP
- • The Clock Is Ticking On The Next Eurozone C...
- • Initial Sell Signal In - Confirmation Is Li...
- • NFIB - Optimistic But Still At Recessionary...
- • Economic Trends Don't Paint A Robust Pictur...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - Dr. Lacy ...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - David Ros...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - Dr. Woody...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - Niall Fer...
- • 3 Likely Triggers Of The Next Recession
- • ISM Report Bucking The Trend
- ► April (19)
- • The "Consumption Dysfunction" Continues
- • Q1 GDP - Weaker Than Expected
- • Social Security Has A Real Problem - Employ...
- • Decline In Durable Goods Indicative Of Broa...
- • Impatience Will Lead To Our Demise
- • Market Cracks Support - Correction Gets Ser...
- • LEI - Slower Growth Of The Growth Update
- • Philly Fed Points To Weaker Profits Ahead
- • Mother Nature's Bail Out Coming To An End
- • 10 More Years Of Low Returns
- • 5 Mistakes That Will Crush Your Retirement ...
- • Earnings Likely To Be "Better Than Expected...
- • Market Hits Support - Now What?
- • The Return Of Economic Weakness
- • The Correction Has Started
- • The "Real" Employment Report - March 2012
- • Now The Media Is Hooked On QE Crack
- • Wave 5 Of The Cyclical Bull Market
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Signs Of Recovery?
- ► March (24)
- • The Consumption Dysfunction
- • WTF! Chart Of The Day
- • An Update On Margin Debt
- • Hyperinflation Isn't A Threat
- • Surprise! Jobs Drive Consumer Confidence
- • Death Of The Gold Bull Market?
- • Housing And The Elusive Recovery
- • LEI - Slower Growth Of The Growth
- • The Long Road Ahead
- • The "Fly" In Ryan's Budget Ointment
- • 1.8 Million Jobs Lost In 2012
- • Why 4% GDP Will Remain Elusive
- • The Stretching Of Limits
- • Rising Costs And Profit Margins
- • Retail Sales - A Lot About Weather
- • Correction: There Has Been No Correction
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Ceridian-UCLA PCI
- • NFIB - Index Up But Internals Weaken
- • Employment Report And The Market
- • Is The Investing Game Rigged?
- • OIl Prices Will Hurt The Consumer
- • Has The Correction Started?
- • The Immediacy Trap
- • 1st Quarter GDP To Be Much Weaker
- ► February (22)
- • Oil Prices WILL Slow The Economy (Revised)
- • Don't Feed The Animals
- • The Housing Recovery In One Index
- • Consumer Sentiment Responds To Market Rally
- • The Straw That Potentially Breaks The Camel...
- • Media Headlines Will Lead You To Ruin
- • Philly Fed Future Activity Points To Weakne...
- • Housing Headlines Improve - Reality Doesn't
- • The "Real" American Dream
- • Industrial Production - The Revival May Hav...
- • Consumer Confidence Has Everything To Do Wi...
- • NFIB - Optimistic But Still In The Foxhole
- • Financial Stress Composite Rising
- • Trade Data Trends Signal Weakness Ahead
- • Consumer Credit And The American Conundrum
- • Is Now The Time To Jump In?
- • Gold - The Technical Rundown
- • Bringing The NILF Mystery To Light
- • Gallop Points To Weaker Employment Report T...
- • Earning Less - Why The Poor Get Poorer
- • ISM - Misses Expectations
- • ADP Signals Weak Job Report Friday
- ► January (23)
- • Chicago ISM - Has The Recovery Peaked?
- • Home Prices Fall Further
- • PCE Points To Weaker GDP Ahead
- • Q4 GDP - "Prognosis Still Negative"
- • Fed Meeting - Reconciling A Weak Economy
- • Why Home Prices Have Much Further To Fall
- • IMF Cuts Global Forecast - US Won't Dodge T...
- • Complacency Risk Is High
- • Prices Paid And Coming Earnings Weakness
- • Housing Is Not Affordable
- • Industrial Production Confirming Changes To...
- • Patiently Waiting For The Golden Cross
- • Consumer Sentiment Rises - Still In Recessi...
- • Why QE3 Won't Help "Average Joe"
- • Industrial Production May Be About To Weake...
- • Consumer Spending May Dissapoint
- • NFIB - Small Businesses More Optimistic
- • Markets Throw Off A Buy Signal
- • The Real Employment Situation Report For De...
- • Improvement In Employment - At Least For No...
- • Markets Getting Over Bought / Over Bullish
- • Market Rallies To Resistance - Now What?
- • ISM & Construction Spending - Modest Improv...
- ► December (19)
- ► 2011 (277)
- ► December (22)
- • 2012 Outlook - Anything Other Than The Apoc...
- • Q3 GDP - "Prognosis Negative"
- • The Eurozone Is Saved?
- • Market Rally To Nowhere
- • Housing Starts Up - Patient Still Critical
- • NAHB Housing Market Index
- • A Little Followed Indicator Hints At Recess...
- • Inflation Pressures Rising In The Core
- • Economic Deluge - Economy Shows Some Positi...
- • Is The Gold Run Over?
- • Import Prices Jump - Recession Odds Increas...
- • NFIB - Bounce Off The Bottom
- • No Holiday Cheer In Retail Sales
- • A Million Dollars Ain't What It Used To Be
- • STA RIsk Ratio Turns Up - We've Seen This B...
- • Consumer Sentiment Ticks Up
- • What Are Initial Claims Not Telling Us?
- • Is Consumer Spending Really Surging?
- • Could Gasoline Prices Trigger A Recession
- • Market Rallies Into EU Meeting
- • ISM Composite Index Ticks Up
- • The Real Employment Situation Report
- ► November (29)
- • Economic Data - Headlines Bullish
- • Markets Surge As World Engages In Global Ba...
- • Was That The Consumer's Last Gasp?
- • Housing - The Margin Effect
- • Economic "Run Down" - Weakness Emerges
- • GDP - Revised Down
- • Is Market Warning Of The Next Lehman Event?
- • EOCI Index Improves - Is It All Clear?
- • Philly Fed Survey - Predicting A Peak In Ea...
- • US Debt To GDP Now 98.9% And Rising
- • Inflation - A Continued Problem For Consume...
- • Economy Shows Tenative Signs Of Improvement
- • Debate - Is US Becoming Japan
- • Presidential And Decennial Cycles - What Ab...
- • Consumer Sentiment Driven By Market Rally
- • Net Export Prices Turn Down
- • What "Average Joe" Really Thinks
- • Blood Bath As Italy Faces Crisis
- • Are Oil Prices Confirming ECRI Recession Ca...
- • Oil Price Spike Update
- • No Joy In NFIB Report
- • Market Vs Economic Cycles And Sector Rotati...
- • Employment - The Good, Bad & Ugly
- • ISM Non-Manufacturing Index - Not Adding Up
- • Productivity Up - Costs Down
- • Fed's Outlook Much Weaker Than Reported
- • Food Stamp Usage Sets New Record
- • Fed Trapped By Inflation
- • Manufacturing Not Showing GDP Strength
- ► October (24)
- • STA Risk Ratio Turns Up
- • Buy Signal Is In - But Move Slowly
- • Recession Still Likely Despite Bump In GDP
- • A Haircut, Boost and Drop
- • New Homes Sales - Glued To The Bottom
- • Consumer Is Key To Next Recession
- • Case-Shiller 20-City Index Flat As HARP Wil...
- • CFNAI - Better But Still Negative
- • Understanding Federal Debt: Point - Counter...
- • Temporary Bounce In Philly Fed Confirmed By...
- • Inflation Rises Along With Housing Hopes
- • Snipe Hunting In The Housing Market
- • Der Spiegel is Der Wrong
- • Inventories, Sentiment and Sales - Behind T...
- • The Empire Is Tarnished
- • A JOLT To The System
- • NFIB and PCI - More Signs Of Weakness
- • 1929-45 Vs Today - Following The Same Path
- • Unemployment Report Worse Than It Looks
- • Bearish Sentiment Abounds
- • ISM Composite Index - Been Here Before
- • Yield Spread Confirming Recession Call
- • Market Breaks Its Neck
- • ISM Manufacturing Index - Backlog Drawdown ...
- ► September (34)
- • 5 Months Down - Time For A Bounce?
- • Economic Trifecta - But No Winners
- • Economy Upticks & Jobless Claims Fall
- • Gallup - Economic Confidence Slides
- • Can Margin Debt Give Us A Clue On Market Di...
- • Euro Tarp - Why It Will Be A Screaming Fail...
- • Consumer Doldrums
- • Chicago Fed National Activity "Slowing Down...
- • End Of Week Technical Wrap Up
- • The Yield Spread Is Lying About The Coming ...
- • Leading Indicators Predict Weaker Economy
- • Why The Fed's "Silver Bullet" Won't Kill Th...
- • Fed Buy's Paltry $ 400 Billion - Need A Hug...
- • Market Weak - Waiting On The Fed
- • Housing Still A Drag
- • Consumer Confidence Remains At Lowest Level...
- • Coordinated Central Bank Intervention Creat...
- • Philly Fed Survey - Predicting Recession
- • CPI Rises - Inflation Hits Home
- • Consumers Tapping Out Savings To Spend
- • PPI - Pushing A Slowdown
- • NFIB Confidence Slides Lower
- • Export Prices Still A Negative For The Econ...
- • The Great American Economic Lie
- • High Yield Spread Signaling Recession
- • The Economy Weakens More
- • Obama's $ 400 Billion For Jobs And Counting
- • Trade Deficit - Points To Possible Uptick I...
- • Another Domino Falls For The Market
- • Corporate Profits Are In Trouble
- • Are Stocks Undervalued?
- • European Markets Down Sharply
- • Jobs - What Jobs?
- • Why Unemployment Is About To Surge
- ► August (38)
- • Market Bounce OR New Bull Market
- • Chicago ISM Confirms Weakness
- • Consumer Confidence Collapses - Again
- • Personal Incomes Still Under Pressure
- • Annotated Bernanke Speech - The Elusive Eco...
- • Corporate Profits - Hinting At Recession
- • GDP - Revised Down
- • The Deficit Spending Trap
- • Will Ben Go For Another Round Of QE?
- • Boomers - Are Going To Be A Real Drag
- • No Job = No New House
- • Beware Of Long Term Investing Advice
- • Technical Market Overview
- • EOCI Index Now At Recession Levels
- • Composite Inflation Index Warning Of Slower...
- • 7 Things That Make Me Worried
- • The Difference Between "WHAT" and "WHEN"
- • Empire Fed Index - 3 Strikes You're Out
- • Rosenberg On The Economy
- • Consumer Confidence Collapses
- • Trade Deficit Points To Sub-1% 2nd Qtr GDP
- • 7 Things My Mom Taught Me About Investing
- • Blood In The Streets - Part II
- • Ceridian UCLA Consumer Pulse - Going Flatli...
- • Market Bounce - Was It Stealth QE3?
- • FOMC Meeting Ends - No Change To Stance
- • NFIB Survey Says...Higher Taxes Won't Work
- • Panic Attack! Markets Extremely Oversold
- • Employment Report Less Than Meets The Eye
- • Market Trashed Again! Panic Hits.
- • Recession Almost A Certainty
- • QE 3 Coming - But Won't Save The Economy
- • Yield Curves & The Fed Model
- • ISM Composite Index - Continues Decline
- • Market Trashed - What Now?
- • Personal Income Under Pressure
- • ISM - Clinging On For Dear Life
- • Debt Deal - A Complete Failure
- ► July (38)
- • We Are All Guessing
- • Dismal Economic Numbers
- • 10 Lessons Learned From Poker
- • STA Risk Ratio - Still On Sell Signal
- • GDP - 2nd Quarter Estimate
- • Consumer Un-Confidence
- • Are We Headed For A Second Recession? Upda...
- • Chicago Fed National Activity Index Confirm...
- • Decline In Profits Leads Index
- • EOC Index Shows Economic Weakness
- • Help Wanted - Not So Much
- • Existing Home Sales - A Resumption Of Decli...
- • Housing Starts - Bouncing Along The Bottom
- • You Can't Have A Jobless Recovery
- • NAHB Housing Index - No Signs Of Life
- • Commentary: A Default Would Devastate D.C.-...
- • Tax Reform -The Overlooked Solution
- • Empire Index - Harbinger Of Bad Things To C...
- • Consumers Believe It's Really A Recession
- • Inflation Index Flashes Warning
- • Bernanke Gives US Congress "The Finger"
- • Retail Sales & Jobless Claims
- • Why The Trade Deficit Is Warning Of Weak GD...
- • QE 3 - "To Infinity And Beyond"
- • No Fear - That's Not A Good Thing
- • More Fed Stimulus - As Expected
- • NFIB - No Jobs For You
- • Why Economists Don't Have A Clue About Jobs
- • Raising Taxes Won't Raise Revenue
- • Why The Jobs Report Is Worse Than It Seems
- • Why Oil Price Spikes "Feel" Worse
- • The Average Investor Doesn't Stand A Chance
- • How To Just Get By On Food Stamps
- • Jobless Still Jobless- Teens Hired For The ...
- • ISM Composite Index Showing Contraction
- • Outperforming The Market By 30% With No Ris...
- • ISM Report - Little To Be Excited About
- • Greenspan - QE Was A Failure
- ► June (38)
- • Market Failed At Resistance - Now What?
- • Full Employment - Hope vs Reality
- • Existing Home Sales Reflect Balance Sheet R...
- • Myths Of Retirement Planning
- • Implications Of Household Debt Deleveraging
- • LEI Warning Of Economic Stumbling Economy
- • Greece Ripple Effects Could Create US Finan...
- • Consumer Confidence Falls
- • Economy Failing Right On Time
- • New Home Starts - It's The Job Market Stupi...
- • Composite Price Index - Pushing Upper Limit...
- • Empire Composite Index Signals Economic Con...
- • PPI - Ratio Pointing To Economic Weakness
- • NFIB Employment Expectations Dispells 5% Ec...
- • Trade Deficit - A Roadmap To Economic Stren...
- • How Far Might A Bounce Go?
- • What Is Really Driving The Weakness In The ...
- • Obama Says He Has No Fear Of A Double Dip
- • NYSE Margin Debt
- • Beranke Speech - A Prelude To QE 3
- • Don't Get Suckered!
- • QE3 - Just A Matter Of Time
- • Job Report Shocker
- • Where's My Bottom
- • STA Risk Ratio Indicator Update - Still Cor...
- • ISM Composite Index Confirmed Market Top
- • Not The American Dream I Was Told About
- • Never Buy Stocks Again? Seriously?
- • Where Is The Confidence?
- • ISM Manufacturing Report Hits The Brakes
- • A Weaker Dollar Equals A Weaker Economy
- • Market Bounce
- • SF Bay Bridge - "Made In China"
- • Consumer Confidence At Recession Levels
- • The Decline Of The American "Saver"
- • Greece Fire - NY Post
- • The Breaking Point
- • Financial Profits Reduce Economic Prosperit...
- ► May (32)
- • Consumer Confidence Falls
- • Slide In Corporate Profits - Part II
- • Personal Incomes Still Feeding The Gas Tank
- • Change In Corporate Profits Leads To Market...
- • Economic Surprises - The Wrong Kind
- • New Orders For Durable Goods - Another Nail...
- • STA Buy/Sell Indicator Flashes Sell Signal
- • New Home Sales Not Inspiring
- • STA Economic Output Index Takes A Plunge
- • Debt To GDP And A Sustainable Level
- • The Virtuous Cycle Of The Economy
- • Economy Shifting Into Slower Gear
- • 7 Impossible Trading Rules To Follow
- • Housing Starts Fall - Again
- • Cyclical Bull Markets In Secular Bear Marke...
- • Empire Manufacturing Index
- • More Inflation For Consumers!
- • Headline Inflation Pushing Up
- • Weakness In GDP Continues (X-M)
- • Small Business Optimism Getting Worse!
- • Import Prices Flashing Warning Signal
- • Home Prices Following The Path To Destructi...
- • The Hyperinflation Index
- • Unemployment Rate Climbs To 9.0%
- • The Link Between Productivity & Jobs
- • Commodities Stumble
- • Jobless Claims Jump
- • ISM Composite Index vs S&P 500
- • ADP & ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Have A Lo...
- • Gallup: More Than Half Of Americans Still S...
- • "Let Them Eat IPads"
- • Have We Seen The Peak In This Business Cycl...
- ► April (22)
- • Fallacy Of The Falling Dollar
- • 1.8% GDP Not So Great!
- • Bernanke's Folly - High Oil Prices Are Flee...
- • Consumer Confidence - STILL Not So Confiden...
- • Tracking The Next Gasoline Induced Recessio...
- • New Home Sales Tick Up
- • STA Risk Ratio Throwing Off Warning Signal
- • The Philly Fed Survery Says....#&^%@!!
- • Americans Receive MORE In Government Handou...
- • NYSE Margin Debt Reaching Danger Zone
- • Housing Starts Not Starting
- • Pitchfork and Torches For The Rich
- • S&P Downgrades US Credit Outlook To Negativ...
- • Why You Can't Invest For The "Long Term"
- • Jobless Claims & PPI - Not Looking Better
- • Who Pays The Taxes!
- • Retail Sales Confirms Consumer Weakness
- • Gallop Poll Confirms NFIB Index - Economy S...
- • Small Business Still Not Optomistic
- • Trade Deficit Narrows - But Not In A Good W...
- • NYSE Margin Debt Climbs
- • High Commodity Prices Not The Result Of The...
- ► December (22)