suggested blog sites
10 Common Investor Errors
- Written by Barry Ritholtz | Friday, July 13, 2012
Whenever there is turmoil in the markets, my phone lights up with calls from journalists, investors and potential clients. They are typically in a panic about the crisis of the moment and are calling for my take on the situation. In my decades as an investor and analyst on Wall Street, I have learned that panics come and go. They turn out not to be the main cause of investors' financial setbacks. Rather, what hurts most investors most is a failure to understand the basics of investing. Not grasping the simple mathematical drivers of returns invariably leads to very costly errors. The best time to make an investment plan is before a crisis, not during it. When the sky turns cloudy, you should follow your plan, including all "exit strategies." Consider these 10 points in the context of your own discretionary investments, 401(k)s and IRAs. Identify any errors you are making, and fix them now — before the next storm hits.
1) High fees are a drag on returns: Fees are an enormous drag on long-term performance, according to every study that has ever looked at this issue. Typical mutual fund or adviser fees of 2 to 3 percent may not sound like a lot, but compound that over 30 or 40 years, and it adds up to an enormous sum of money.
The typical hedge fund fee structure of 2 percent plus 20 percent of the profit is an even bigger drag on returns. Other than a handful of superstar managers (whom you probably don't have access to), the vast majority of hedge fund managers simply cannot justify their costs. The same is true for most of the retail stockbrokers and for many of the investment advisers on Wall Street.
Across all of my managed-asset clients, my goal is to keep fees down to an average of about 1 percent. You should expect to pay a little more for small portfolios and somewhat less for much bigger ones.
2) Reaching for yield: There are few mistakes more costly than "chasing yield." Don't take my word for it — just ask the folks who loaded up on subprime-mortgage-backed securities for the extra yield how that worked out for them.
There are three common ways to chase yield: 1) by buying longer-dated bonds; 2) by buying junkier, riskier paper; or 3) by using leverage, which amplifies your gains but also amplifies your losses.
With the 10-year Treasury yielding just 1.6 percent, I see lots of folks trying to capture more income using some combination of the above. Anyone who engages in this sort of ill-advised, risky behavior should understand the risks and what they might mean if and when things go awry.
3) You (and your behavior) are your own worst enemy: Your emotional reactions to events are yet another detriment to your results. Do you get excited about hot new companies? Do you love chatting about stocks at cocktail parties? On the other hand, are there times when you cannot bear to even open your monthly statements? Do your investments keep you up at night?
If so, you, like most people, are an emotional investor. This typically manifests itself in two ways: by the buying of stocks at the highest valuations as excitement builds near the top of the cycle, and by panicked selling near the lows.
You can take steps to protect yourself from, well, yourself. Set up a mad-money account with less than 5 percent of your capital. This will allow you to indulge your inner Jim Cramer. If the investments work out, that's great. If they turn out to be a debacle, it's a terrific lesson that should remind you that trading in and out of stocks is not your forte. Be thankful you didn't lose most of your retirement assets.
Your emotions are often the enemy of your financial well-being. Keep them in check!
4) Mutual funds vs exchange-traded funds: The average mutual fund charges far more than the average ETF. Whenever possible, I recommend substituting a low-cost ETF over a more expensive mutual fund.
The fund industry seems to have figured this out. Some companies have put out ultra-low-cost mutual funds that typically mimic broad indexes. Others have ETF-ified their existing mutual funds, converting some into ETFs. It would not surprise me if nearly half of the existing mutual fund offerings morph into ETFs over the next decade.
Even within the ETF universe, there is a wide range of internal fees. These expenses come off the top of your investment performance, so it pays to watch them closely. Reducing your costs is a surefire way to improve long-term results.
5) Asset allocation matters more than stock picking: The decisions you make about the mix of your assets have a far greater impact on your success than your stock picking or market timing. This too has been proved repeatedly in academic studies and the real world.
If your allocation mix contained too few equities over the past few years, you probably missed out on the 100 percent rally in stocks since March 2009. And if you a lack of bonds in 2008, you had nothing protecting you as markets fell.
The world's greatest stock pickers all got crushed during the 2008 crisis — and a monkey could have thrown a dart at a list of stocks in 2009 and made a ton of money.
Stock picking is for fun. Asset allocation is for making money over the long haul.
6) Passive vs. active management: Speaking of which: Active fund management — when managers try to outperform their benchmarks through superior stock picking and/or market timing — is exceedingly difficult. It has been shown repeatedly that 80 percent of active managers underperform their benchmarks each year.
What's worse, most active managers typically run higher-fee funds. That combination — high fees plus weak performance — is not a winning long-term strategy. This is why passive index investing is a superior approach for most investors.
Your portfolio might be better served by replacing some of the actively managed funds with passive indices.
7) Not understanding the long cycle: Societies, economies and markets all move in long — or secular — eras. Sometimes these periods are positive (1946 to 1966 and 1982 to 2000, for example) and are called secular bull markets. Sometimes they are negative (1966 to 1982; 2000 to ?) and are called secular bear markets.
Let's look at the 1982-to-2000 era. The rise of technology — including software, semiconductors, mobile, networking, storage and biotech — drove the broader economy. This led to record-low unemployment, strong wage gains and high corporate profits. As you would imagine, stocks did exceedingly well in this environment. Investors whose asset allocations were equity-heavy did much better than those whose held lots of bonds and cash during that period. Conversely, the cycle that began in 2000 has rewarded bond- and cash-heavy portfolios and has punished more equity-heavy ones.
Not understanding this cyclical backdrop is a common error. You should be more equity-oriented during secular bull cycles and more tactical (that is, invested in bonds and cash) during secular bear cycles. Investors should understand the secular backdrop and adjust their allocations accordingly.
8) Cognitive errors: Beyond those emotional foibles, many investors suffer from cognitive foibles. These are the errors inherent in your wetware — namely, the way your brain has evolved over the millennia. Suffice it to say that capital-risk decision making was not a big issue on the Serengeti plains. Not getting eaten by lions was.
Humans have a number of unfortunate tendencies that get in our way when it comes to investing: We see patterns where none exist. We have difficulty conceptualizing long arcs of time. We selectively perceive what agrees with our preexisting expectations and ignore things that disagree with our existing beliefs. We tend to forget our losers and overemphasize our winners. In short, we simply are not wired for investing.
We cannot avoid these built-in shortfalls. But at least if we are aware of them, we might hope to avoid their most pernicious effects.
9) Confusing past performance with future potential: We've all seen the boilerplate disclaimer that comes with anything investment-related: "Past performance is no guarantee of future results." Despite its ubiquity, this warning is routinely ignored by investors.
Consider this. When Morningstar gives a mutual fund a five-star rating, the fund attracts lots of new investors and fresh dollars. The primary factor in the rating is (can you believe it?) past performance. This despite a Morningstar study that found that five-star funds mostly underperform — my assumption is that it's a case of a simple reversion to the mean. As it turns out, a fund's expense ratio is a much better predictor of performance.
When making any investment, be sure you are not merely chasing a hot quarter or two.
10) When paying fees, get what you pay for: It always surprises me how much money some people are willing to throw at others to manage their financial affairs when it is not necessary.
For many people, hiring a pro makes good sense. Let's say you have a complex financial situation. You may have a complicated tax issue, or perhaps you have a generational wealth transfer coming up. Then sure, it makes lots of sense to employ a professional. Lots of clients are too busy running their own businesses and do not have the time to manage their investments. But many others might be better off simply dollar-cost-averaging into a group of broad indices.
Consider what sort of financial planning help you need, and find someone competent to assist you. If your needs are straightforward and simple, you might be able to save the fees and do it yourself.
StreetTalk On Air
recent commentary
Reports
Created jtemplate.ru joomla modules
Audio
Video
CNBC: My Take On Employment Data
This past Friday I visited with Bill Griffith, Maria Bartiromo and Rick Santelli on CNBC to discuss my views on the latest employment report. My take is somewhat basic in regards to the data - on a macro level the jobs that are being created are temporary, low paying, jobs that do not create long term sustainabilty for economic growth.
As I stated in "Employment: The Macro Trends":
This problem with part-time employment is that it does not increase economic prosperity. Part-time employment, as discussed in the "Labor Hoarding Effect," has been an aggressively used tool by corporations to suppress wage growth, reduce overhead costs and increase profitability. The problem is that with the Affordable Care Act gearing up to start in 2014 even more businesses will resort to part-time employment to reduce the increased health care tax burden. I stated that:
"The issue of 'labor hoarding' is an important phenomenon that is likely obscuring the real weakness in the underlying economy. Without an increase in the demand part of the equation businesses are likely to continue resorting to further productivity increases to stretch the current labor force farther to protect profitability. However, as we may currently be witnessing, businesses may be reaching the limits of what they can do to continue increasing profits at the bottom line while revenue declines at the top. The implications for the financial markets going forward are clearly negative."
There has been little improvement in the number of people working part-time for economic reasons. However, as I stated, such weak employment leads to dependence of government subsidies which explains the rise in disability claims and food stamp participation as individuals seek to make ends meet.
I also discuss my views on the market and where to invest.
suggested reading
featured blogs
- Is The Consumer Really Deleveraging?
- The Great "American" Divide
- 5 Questions That Every Market Bull Should Answer
- The Fallacy Of The Fed Model
- Why You Can't Beat The Index
- There Is No Asset Bubble?
- Market And Investing Wisdoms
- Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Investing Rules
- 10 Immutable Laws Of Money
- The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away
- The Real Housing Recovery Story
- Housing Recovery: What Has Been Forgotten
- The Next Four Years Won't Be As Good As The Last
- Debt And Deficits - Killing Economic Prosperity
- Debt - Driving The Economy Since 1980
- Unemployment 7.8% to 22% - Is There A Better Method?
- 4 Keys To Successful Long Term Investing
- Thoughts On Long Term Investing
- 10 More Years Of Low Returns
- 5 Mistakes That Will Crush Your Retirement Dream
- Beware Of Long Term Investing Advice
daily exchange archives
- ► 2013 (134)
- ► June (16)
- • 3 Reasons Stocks May Stumble Despite Fed
- • 3-Pitfalls To Fed's Tapering
- • What Inflation Says About Bonds & The Fed
- • Empire Manufacturing Index: Do Not Look In...
- • Chart Of The Day: Interest Rates Vs. S&P 5...
- • The Economy In Pictures
- • Consumer Confidence Spurs Retail Sales
- • Fox 26: Digging Into The May Jobs Report
- • CNBC: My Take On Employment Data
- • Gallup: Consumer Spending Is Up - Retail Da...
- • NFIB: Optimism Improves But Don't Get Too E...
- • Is The Eurozone Crisis Set To Flare Up?
- • Employment - The Macro Trends
- • 4 Tools Of Corporate Profitability & The Ec...
- • The Truth About Wall Street Analysts & Why ...
- • The Most Important Economic Number
- ► May (26)
- • 3 Reasons For Higher Market Highs
- • Consumer Confidence - Was It Really That Go...
- • Evaluating 3 Bullish Arguments
- • The Fed's Real Worry - A Pick Up In Deflati...
- • Japan - A Few Thoughts On The "Crash"
- • Chart Of The Day: Existing Home Sales
- • Bernanke's Link To "Mother Nature"
- • Five Lessons from Apple's Fall
- • Economic And Employment Composites Indicate...
- • The Great "American" Divide
- • Why Bonds Aren't Dead & The Dollar Will Get...
- • Chart Of The Day: S&P 500 Now At Extremes
- • Fed May Quietly Taper QE Before September
- • 5 Questions That Every Market Bull Should A...
- • Clues To Watch For The End Of QE "Infinity"
- • Should Companies "Twitter" Their Earnings
- • Fox 26: The Disconnect Between The Market ...
- • "Risk On" Rally - Don't Forget The Risk Par...
- • The "Labor Hoarding" Effect
- • Lacy Hunt: Cyclical Hurdles For A Highly Ov...
- • David Rosenberg - The Potemkin Rally
- • Mohamed El-Erian: Putting It All Together
- • A. Gary Shilling - Six Realities In An Age ...
- • Jeff Gundlach - Why Own Bonds At All
- • Niall Ferguson – The Great Degeneration
- • Economic Data Continues To Disappoint
- ► April (23)
- • March Spending Driven By Surge In Services
- • It's A Bit Early To Declare A Winner In The...
- • Durable Goods: Another Straw For The Camel
- • Economic Slowdown More Than A "Soft Patch"
- • Has Real Estate Sales Activity Peaked?
- • STA Economic & Employment Composites Paint ...
- • Random Observations & Rising Risks
- • Fox Business: Market & Investing Debate
- • Goldman Sachs: A Consumption Setback
- • More Evidence That The Economic Peak Is In
- • Gold Crash: What It's Not Telling Us
- • Video - The Potential Impact Of The Obama B...
- • Fox Business: Spring Cleaning Your Portfol...
- • Understanding The AMT
- • S&P 500: Recent Consolidation Allows Push H...
- • NFIB: No Sign Of Economic Improvement
- • What Do Interest Rates Tell Us About The Ec...
- • Economy In Pictures: Have We Seen The Peak?
- • Fox26 - March Unemployment Report
- • The Fallacy Of The Fed Model
- • Chart Of The Day: ISM Composite Index
- • Why You Can't Beat The Index
- • The Great Disconnect: Markets Vs. Economy
- ► March (19)
- • The 2012 Compendium Of Tax Filing Tips
- • Economic Data Shows Underlying Weakness
- • Fox26 - What Should Investors Be Doing Righ...
- • Chart Of The Day: Reality Vs Belief
- • Fed's Economic Projections - Myth Vs Realit...
- • Fox Business News - The Cyprus Effect
- • The Fed Has Already Imposed A "Cyprus Tax" ...
- • COTD: Risk Ratio Pushing Extremes
- • Fox Business News/Melissa Francis - Is Now ...
- • S&P Hits 1560 Target As Risks Rise
- • Digging Behind The February Retail Sales Re...
- • NFIB: "No Sign Of A Surge In Confidence"
- • The Real February Employment Report - In Pi...
- • What The Markets And Taylor Swift Have In C...
- • Chart Of The Day: Retiree's No Better Off T...
- • Dow At Highs - Buy, Sell or Hold?
- • The Dow - Not Really All Time Highs
- • There Is No Asset Bubble?
- • Personal Incomes & The Decline Of The Ameri...
- ► February (19)
- • Get Ready For The Run To All-Time Highs
- • The Real Story Behind The Bounce In Core Ca...
- • Housing, Confidence & Richmond Fed
- • Economic Recovery And The EOCI Index
- • LEI - Is There A Disconnect?
- • Market And Investing Wisdoms
- • Is It Time To Buy Gold? The Update
- • Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Investing Rule...
- • Global Recession Tugs At U.S. Economy
- • Chart Of The Day: The S&P 500 Wedge Tighten...
- • In Search Of The Economic Recovery
- • Sex, Lies And Money (Video)
- • Why You Should Own Bonds
- • 10 Immutable Laws Of Money
- • Chart Of The Day: Productivity Not Pointing...
- • Economic Indicators Not Reflecting Exuberan...
- • The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few...
- • Fox26 - Stock Market Rally And Buying Tops
- • Seasonal Adjustments Are B.S. - I Can Handl...
- ► January (31)
- • Chart Of The Day: Incomes & The Cliff Effe...
- • Help Wanted Index Pointing To Employment Sl...
- • Was The Election Bought With Taxpayer Dolla...
- • GDP - Digging Into The "Unexpected" Decline
- • Market/Economy - A Few Observations
- • X-Factor Report 1/28/13 - Will The Market E...
- • Is The Consumer Really Deleveraging?
- • LEI - Revisions Show Slower Growth
- • The Visible Hand Of The Fed
- • Chart Of The Day: Economic Policy Uncertai...
- • Chart Of The Day: Richmond Fed Survey
- • The Real Housing Recovery Story
- • Pray The Bond Bubble Doesn't Pop
- • Charts Of The Day: The Economic Recovery S...
- • Bullish Optimism Beginning To Reach Extreme...
- • Getting Started With A Budget
- • Housing, CPI And Why I Only Have A Nickel L...
- • Economic Data - Mixed Bag Of Reports
- • What Are The Odds The Market Will End The Y...
- • Signs Of A Fed Driven Rally
- • Philly Fed Survey - 2012 Revisions Show Muc...
- • Why You Are Powerless Against The Governmen...
- • Consumer Credit - What Deleveraging?
- • NFIB - Higher Taxes Not Included
- • An Argument For The Debt Ceiling
- • Rise Above - Two Outcomes To Debt Ceiling D...
- • Interview W/ Congressman Brady on Fiscal Cl...
- • Heads Or Tails - The 2013 Coin Toss
- • Cliff Deal Charts - Just Charts
- • Cliff Resolved - Deficit Set To Explode
- • Senate "Cliff" Bill Unlikely To Pass House
- ► June (16)
- ► 2012 (282)
- ► December (19)
- • Fox Business - Investing Ahead Of FIscal Cl...
- • Interview With Baker-Patrick On Impact Of F...
- • Consumer Confidence Composite Turns Down
- • Chart Of The Day: Claims Not Translating I...
- • Chart Of The Day: Retail Sales & Excuses
- • "Sandy Effect" Boosts Economic Data
- • Economic Deluge Chart Book
- • Why Reported Inflation Seems Different Than...
- • Chart Of The Day: Sandy Weighs On Empire I...
- • Sandy Effect Pushes Production Higher
- • Fed Downgrades Economic Outlook
- • Trade Deficit - Recession Warning Ticks Up
- • NFIB: More About The Economy Than The Elect...
- • Client Brief: Dealing With Uncertainty
- • Have We Seen The Peak Of Employment?
- • Consumer Debt - Still A Long Way To Go.
- • ISM Composite - Back To Pre-Crash Levels
- • Thought Experiment: Why Obama Wants The Fis...
- • ISM - Outlook Declines
- ► November (23)
- • Personal Income And Spending Weigh On Econo...
- • Bill Ackman: The Basics Of Stock Market In...
- • Q3 GDP - The Devil Is In The Details
- • Housing Recovery: What Has Been Forgotten
- • The Definition Of Insanity: Republicans
- • CFNAI: Not Seeing The Growth Economists' Pr...
- • Chart Of The Day: LEI -- Leading To Laggin...
- • Be Careful Jumping On Bernanke's Bandwagon
- • Market Bounces Off Support - What Now?
- • Chart Of The Day: Decoupling Has Ended
- • Already Weak Manufacturing Impacted By Sand...
- • Retail Sales - You Can't Blame It All On Sa...
- • Personal Finance Seminar Presentation
- • NFIB - Pre-Election Hopes Of Romney Win
- • America Isn't The Greatest Country Anymore
- • "The Star Spangled Banner Is Stupid"
- • Net Export Prices And Wholesale Trade
- • Trade Deficit - Increase In Exports To Be S...
- • Post-Election Wrap Up: Economy and Investi...
- • The Next Four Years Won't Be As Good As The...
- • Recession Probability - 100%
- • ISM Composite, Employment & Black Helicopte...
- • Economic Data Flood - Weakness Behind The H...
- ► October (25)
- • Market Thoughts: Hurricane, Election & Fis...
- • Debt And Deficits - Killing Economic Prospe...
- • Personal Incomes Offset By Rise In Food & E...
- • GDP: The Warning From Exports
- • New Home Sales - Not As Strong As Headlines...
- • Chart Of The Day: Where Do Your Tax Dollars...
- • Richmond Fed Survey - More Evidence Of Weak...
- • Debt - Driving The Economy Since 1980
- • Reviewing Risk/Reward And Entry Targets
- • Chart Of The Day: LEI Coincident-To-Laggin...
- • Philly Fed Bounces - Internals Weaken
- • Housing Starts and Permits: Euphoria May B...
- • Market Rallies As Expected
- • Retail Sales - Not As Strong As Headlines S...
- • Chart Of The Day: JOLT Survey And The Peak ...
- • Trade Deficit - Recession Risks Increase
- • What Wholesale Trade Can Tell Us About 3Q E...
- • Fox Business - Bull/Bear Market Report
- • NFIB - Small Businesses Don't Agree With BL...
- • Unemployment 7.8% to 22% - Is There A Bette...
- • Why The Real Unemployment Rate Is 16.9%
- • Romney Got It Right On Jobs and Taxes
- • What Is The ADS And Why Is It Signaling A R...
- • 3 Major Risks To The 4th Quarter
- • Have Investors Really Missed Anything?
- ► September (25)
- • Second Recession Horseman Goes Down
- • GDP And Durable Goods - Heading To Recessio...
- • Market Sell Off Pushes Toward Support Level...
- • What To Expect From Post-Election Year Mark...
- • Economic Data Continues To Weaken
- • 4 Keys To Successful Long Term Investing
- • QE3 And Bernanke's Folly - Part II
- • Romney Should Be Fighting For The 47%
- • China: A Love-Hate Relationship
- • QE3 - Mortgage Rates And Housing
- • QE3 And Bernanke's Folly - Part I
- • Fed Announces QE - Initial Thoughts
- • Analyzing The ECRI Recession Call
- • Import Prices and Wholesale Trade - Weaknes...
- • Trade Deficit - Exports A Major Concern
- • NFIB - Good News Beneath The Surface
- • CNBC - The Fed, QE3 and Jobs
- • Employment Report - Worse Than It Looks
- • MarketWatch - 3 Factors Deciding The Next P...
- • ECB - A Program To Nowhere
- • When Good Employment News Is Really Bad New...
- • Draghi To Announce Sterilized Bond Purchase...
- • Productivity Increases And The Employment C...
- • ISM and Construction Spending Show Weakness
- • Stage For EuroCrisis Resurgence Being Set
- ► August (30)
- • The Incredible Lightness Of "Hope"
- • PCE - A Tale Of The Consumer
- • Q2 GDP - Nothing Good Happening Here
- • QE3 Mechanism Is Broken
- • Investing For The Next Recession
- • Pigeons At The Table
- • Durable Goods And New Home Sales
- • Monday Reading List
- • Is It Time To Buy Gold?
- • Chart Of The Day: Confidence Waning
- • To The Contrary - QE-3 Is Not Coming Soon
- • Three Things That Will Influence The Electi...
- • No Recession Now - But When?
- • Do You Feel Lucky? Well Do Ya?
- • The Monday Morning Reading List
- • Thoughts On The Market
- • Chasing Yield Can Be Hazardous To Your Reti...
- • Gold, Dollar & Rates Say No QE
- • NFIB - Dear Administration, Are You Listeni...
- • Everything Needs To Go Right
- • End Of Week Economic Data Roundup
- • Want More Tax Revenue? Increase Jobs Not R...
- • Market "Hope" Rally Overbought
- • Are Investors Really That Bearish?
- • Chart Of The Day: Follow The Money
- • Bullish Data Says No Q.E. Coming
- • BLS - Jobs Increase As Businesses Cut
- • Fed And ECB - No Action As Expected
- • CBNC - ECB and Knight Trading Glitch
- • Economic Reports Confirm Deterioration
- ► July (20)
- • Consumer Spending Points To Weaker Employme...
- • FOMC, ECB and Jobs - A Trifecta Of Potentia...
- • 2nd Quarter GDP - Weaker In All The Wrong P...
- • ECB Spurs Short Covering Rally
- • Major Sell Signal Triggered
- • Richmond Fed - Recession Risks Increase
- • CFNAI And Market Update
- • Thoughts On Long Term Investing
- • LEI, Philly Fed, Housing And The 100 Days O...
- • Corporate Profits Surge At Expense Of Worke...
- • Markets Have Trapped Fed On QE3
- • Will QE 3 Save Us From Recession
- • Consumers Flash Warning Signal
- • Import-Export Prices And Jobless Claims
- • Trade and Mortgage Data - More Evidence Of ...
- • NFIB Weakness And Recession Risks
- • Looking At The Economic Forest
- • Homes: The Case Of M2V And The Elusive Reco...
- • Coming This Fall - The Best Time To Invest
- • Euro Crisis: 366 Days Later
- ► June (25)
- • Consumer Spending Leads To Lower Q2 GDP
- • Q1 GDP - Consumer Weaker As Weather Saves T...
- • Durable Goods - Highly Volatile But Trend T...
- • June Rally Complete - Summer Sell Off Ahead...
- • The Fed And Goldilocks Economic Forecasting
- • Negative Economic Trends Clearing Way For Q...
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Fed Lowers Economic Outl...
- • No Q.E. As Expected - "Twist" Extended
- • No QE3 Tomorrow - Replay Of 2011 Continues
- • CHART OF THE DAY: JOLT Survey And Peak Emp...
- • Have A State Pension? Don't Count On It.
- • Inflation, Dollar And Interest Rates Open D...
- • Retail Sales In Decline
- • Deflationary Presssures Rising - PPI
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Negative Net Export Pric...
- • NFIB - Shows Flaws In Current Policy Mix
- • Why Spain's Bailout May Spell The End Of Th...
- • Trade - A Wholesale And Int'l Disappointmen...
- • Risks To The Market Rebound
- • Forecasting The Rebound And Bottom
- • St. Bernanke's Fight Against The Deflation ...
- • CHART OF THE DAY: US Best Place To Invest
- • ISM Composite - Economic Weakness Returns
- • TheStreet.Com - Gold Run Not Over
- • The Lie That Is Social Security
- ► May (27)
- • Yahoo! Summer Portfolio Management Ideas
- • Yahoo! Low Interest Rates Hurts Economy
- • Fox Business - Tending Your Portfolio
- • CNBC - Eurozone Slowdown Will Impact US
- • Housing Recovery - Hope and Reality
- • Interview - Southwest Airlines, Facebook an...
- • Durable Goods Disappointing
- • 4-Issues For The Market Ahead
- • Richmond Fed Showing More Weakness
- • Sell Signal Confirmed - Initial Targets Set
- • Risk Ratio Indicating More Correction Comin...
- • Confirmed "Sell Signal" Approaches
- • Industrial Production And The Recovery
- • Composite Inflation Index Declines
- • Real Retail Sales Under Pressure
- • Sex, Money and Largesse - The Hidden Depres...
- • Trade Defict - Confirming Weaker Q1 GDP
- • The Clock Is Ticking On The Next Eurozone C...
- • Initial Sell Signal In - Confirmation Is Li...
- • NFIB - Optimistic But Still At Recessionary...
- • Economic Trends Don't Paint A Robust Pictur...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - Dr. Lacy ...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - David Ros...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - Dr. Woody...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - Niall Fer...
- • 3 Likely Triggers Of The Next Recession
- • ISM Report Bucking The Trend
- ► April (19)
- • The "Consumption Dysfunction" Continues
- • Q1 GDP - Weaker Than Expected
- • Social Security Has A Real Problem - Employ...
- • Decline In Durable Goods Indicative Of Broa...
- • Impatience Will Lead To Our Demise
- • Market Cracks Support - Correction Gets Ser...
- • LEI - Slower Growth Of The Growth Update
- • Philly Fed Points To Weaker Profits Ahead
- • Mother Nature's Bail Out Coming To An End
- • 10 More Years Of Low Returns
- • 5 Mistakes That Will Crush Your Retirement ...
- • Earnings Likely To Be "Better Than Expected...
- • Market Hits Support - Now What?
- • The Return Of Economic Weakness
- • The Correction Has Started
- • The "Real" Employment Report - March 2012
- • Now The Media Is Hooked On QE Crack
- • Wave 5 Of The Cyclical Bull Market
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Signs Of Recovery?
- ► March (24)
- • The Consumption Dysfunction
- • WTF! Chart Of The Day
- • An Update On Margin Debt
- • Hyperinflation Isn't A Threat
- • Surprise! Jobs Drive Consumer Confidence
- • Death Of The Gold Bull Market?
- • Housing And The Elusive Recovery
- • LEI - Slower Growth Of The Growth
- • The Long Road Ahead
- • The "Fly" In Ryan's Budget Ointment
- • 1.8 Million Jobs Lost In 2012
- • Why 4% GDP Will Remain Elusive
- • The Stretching Of Limits
- • Rising Costs And Profit Margins
- • Retail Sales - A Lot About Weather
- • Correction: There Has Been No Correction
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Ceridian-UCLA PCI
- • NFIB - Index Up But Internals Weaken
- • Employment Report And The Market
- • Is The Investing Game Rigged?
- • OIl Prices Will Hurt The Consumer
- • Has The Correction Started?
- • The Immediacy Trap
- • 1st Quarter GDP To Be Much Weaker
- ► February (22)
- • Oil Prices WILL Slow The Economy (Revised)
- • Don't Feed The Animals
- • The Housing Recovery In One Index
- • Consumer Sentiment Responds To Market Rally
- • The Straw That Potentially Breaks The Camel...
- • Media Headlines Will Lead You To Ruin
- • Philly Fed Future Activity Points To Weakne...
- • Housing Headlines Improve - Reality Doesn't
- • The "Real" American Dream
- • Industrial Production - The Revival May Hav...
- • Consumer Confidence Has Everything To Do Wi...
- • NFIB - Optimistic But Still In The Foxhole
- • Financial Stress Composite Rising
- • Trade Data Trends Signal Weakness Ahead
- • Consumer Credit And The American Conundrum
- • Is Now The Time To Jump In?
- • Gold - The Technical Rundown
- • Bringing The NILF Mystery To Light
- • Gallop Points To Weaker Employment Report T...
- • Earning Less - Why The Poor Get Poorer
- • ISM - Misses Expectations
- • ADP Signals Weak Job Report Friday
- ► January (23)
- • Chicago ISM - Has The Recovery Peaked?
- • Home Prices Fall Further
- • PCE Points To Weaker GDP Ahead
- • Q4 GDP - "Prognosis Still Negative"
- • Fed Meeting - Reconciling A Weak Economy
- • Why Home Prices Have Much Further To Fall
- • IMF Cuts Global Forecast - US Won't Dodge T...
- • Complacency Risk Is High
- • Prices Paid And Coming Earnings Weakness
- • Housing Is Not Affordable
- • Industrial Production Confirming Changes To...
- • Patiently Waiting For The Golden Cross
- • Consumer Sentiment Rises - Still In Recessi...
- • Why QE3 Won't Help "Average Joe"
- • Industrial Production May Be About To Weake...
- • Consumer Spending May Dissapoint
- • NFIB - Small Businesses More Optimistic
- • Markets Throw Off A Buy Signal
- • The Real Employment Situation Report For De...
- • Improvement In Employment - At Least For No...
- • Markets Getting Over Bought / Over Bullish
- • Market Rallies To Resistance - Now What?
- • ISM & Construction Spending - Modest Improv...
- ► December (19)
- ► 2011 (277)
- ► December (22)
- • 2012 Outlook - Anything Other Than The Apoc...
- • Q3 GDP - "Prognosis Negative"
- • The Eurozone Is Saved?
- • Market Rally To Nowhere
- • Housing Starts Up - Patient Still Critical
- • NAHB Housing Market Index
- • A Little Followed Indicator Hints At Recess...
- • Inflation Pressures Rising In The Core
- • Economic Deluge - Economy Shows Some Positi...
- • Is The Gold Run Over?
- • Import Prices Jump - Recession Odds Increas...
- • NFIB - Bounce Off The Bottom
- • No Holiday Cheer In Retail Sales
- • A Million Dollars Ain't What It Used To Be
- • STA RIsk Ratio Turns Up - We've Seen This B...
- • Consumer Sentiment Ticks Up
- • What Are Initial Claims Not Telling Us?
- • Is Consumer Spending Really Surging?
- • Could Gasoline Prices Trigger A Recession
- • Market Rallies Into EU Meeting
- • ISM Composite Index Ticks Up
- • The Real Employment Situation Report
- ► November (29)
- • Economic Data - Headlines Bullish
- • Markets Surge As World Engages In Global Ba...
- • Was That The Consumer's Last Gasp?
- • Housing - The Margin Effect
- • Economic "Run Down" - Weakness Emerges
- • GDP - Revised Down
- • Is Market Warning Of The Next Lehman Event?
- • EOCI Index Improves - Is It All Clear?
- • Philly Fed Survey - Predicting A Peak In Ea...
- • US Debt To GDP Now 98.9% And Rising
- • Inflation - A Continued Problem For Consume...
- • Economy Shows Tenative Signs Of Improvement
- • Debate - Is US Becoming Japan
- • Presidential And Decennial Cycles - What Ab...
- • Consumer Sentiment Driven By Market Rally
- • Net Export Prices Turn Down
- • What "Average Joe" Really Thinks
- • Blood Bath As Italy Faces Crisis
- • Are Oil Prices Confirming ECRI Recession Ca...
- • Oil Price Spike Update
- • No Joy In NFIB Report
- • Market Vs Economic Cycles And Sector Rotati...
- • Employment - The Good, Bad & Ugly
- • ISM Non-Manufacturing Index - Not Adding Up
- • Productivity Up - Costs Down
- • Fed's Outlook Much Weaker Than Reported
- • Food Stamp Usage Sets New Record
- • Fed Trapped By Inflation
- • Manufacturing Not Showing GDP Strength
- ► October (24)
- • STA Risk Ratio Turns Up
- • Buy Signal Is In - But Move Slowly
- • Recession Still Likely Despite Bump In GDP
- • A Haircut, Boost and Drop
- • New Homes Sales - Glued To The Bottom
- • Consumer Is Key To Next Recession
- • Case-Shiller 20-City Index Flat As HARP Wil...
- • CFNAI - Better But Still Negative
- • Understanding Federal Debt: Point - Counter...
- • Temporary Bounce In Philly Fed Confirmed By...
- • Inflation Rises Along With Housing Hopes
- • Snipe Hunting In The Housing Market
- • Der Spiegel is Der Wrong
- • Inventories, Sentiment and Sales - Behind T...
- • The Empire Is Tarnished
- • A JOLT To The System
- • NFIB and PCI - More Signs Of Weakness
- • 1929-45 Vs Today - Following The Same Path
- • Unemployment Report Worse Than It Looks
- • Bearish Sentiment Abounds
- • ISM Composite Index - Been Here Before
- • Yield Spread Confirming Recession Call
- • Market Breaks Its Neck
- • ISM Manufacturing Index - Backlog Drawdown ...
- ► September (34)
- • 5 Months Down - Time For A Bounce?
- • Economic Trifecta - But No Winners
- • Economy Upticks & Jobless Claims Fall
- • Gallup - Economic Confidence Slides
- • Can Margin Debt Give Us A Clue On Market Di...
- • Euro Tarp - Why It Will Be A Screaming Fail...
- • Consumer Doldrums
- • Chicago Fed National Activity "Slowing Down...
- • End Of Week Technical Wrap Up
- • The Yield Spread Is Lying About The Coming ...
- • Leading Indicators Predict Weaker Economy
- • Why The Fed's "Silver Bullet" Won't Kill Th...
- • Fed Buy's Paltry $ 400 Billion - Need A Hug...
- • Market Weak - Waiting On The Fed
- • Housing Still A Drag
- • Consumer Confidence Remains At Lowest Level...
- • Coordinated Central Bank Intervention Creat...
- • Philly Fed Survey - Predicting Recession
- • CPI Rises - Inflation Hits Home
- • Consumers Tapping Out Savings To Spend
- • PPI - Pushing A Slowdown
- • NFIB Confidence Slides Lower
- • Export Prices Still A Negative For The Econ...
- • The Great American Economic Lie
- • High Yield Spread Signaling Recession
- • The Economy Weakens More
- • Obama's $ 400 Billion For Jobs And Counting
- • Trade Deficit - Points To Possible Uptick I...
- • Another Domino Falls For The Market
- • Corporate Profits Are In Trouble
- • Are Stocks Undervalued?
- • European Markets Down Sharply
- • Jobs - What Jobs?
- • Why Unemployment Is About To Surge
- ► August (38)
- • Market Bounce OR New Bull Market
- • Chicago ISM Confirms Weakness
- • Consumer Confidence Collapses - Again
- • Personal Incomes Still Under Pressure
- • Annotated Bernanke Speech - The Elusive Eco...
- • Corporate Profits - Hinting At Recession
- • GDP - Revised Down
- • The Deficit Spending Trap
- • Will Ben Go For Another Round Of QE?
- • Boomers - Are Going To Be A Real Drag
- • No Job = No New House
- • Beware Of Long Term Investing Advice
- • Technical Market Overview
- • EOCI Index Now At Recession Levels
- • Composite Inflation Index Warning Of Slower...
- • 7 Things That Make Me Worried
- • The Difference Between "WHAT" and "WHEN"
- • Empire Fed Index - 3 Strikes You're Out
- • Rosenberg On The Economy
- • Consumer Confidence Collapses
- • Trade Deficit Points To Sub-1% 2nd Qtr GDP
- • 7 Things My Mom Taught Me About Investing
- • Blood In The Streets - Part II
- • Ceridian UCLA Consumer Pulse - Going Flatli...
- • Market Bounce - Was It Stealth QE3?
- • FOMC Meeting Ends - No Change To Stance
- • NFIB Survey Says...Higher Taxes Won't Work
- • Panic Attack! Markets Extremely Oversold
- • Employment Report Less Than Meets The Eye
- • Market Trashed Again! Panic Hits.
- • Recession Almost A Certainty
- • QE 3 Coming - But Won't Save The Economy
- • Yield Curves & The Fed Model
- • ISM Composite Index - Continues Decline
- • Market Trashed - What Now?
- • Personal Income Under Pressure
- • ISM - Clinging On For Dear Life
- • Debt Deal - A Complete Failure
- ► July (38)
- • We Are All Guessing
- • Dismal Economic Numbers
- • 10 Lessons Learned From Poker
- • STA Risk Ratio - Still On Sell Signal
- • GDP - 2nd Quarter Estimate
- • Consumer Un-Confidence
- • Are We Headed For A Second Recession? Upda...
- • Chicago Fed National Activity Index Confirm...
- • Decline In Profits Leads Index
- • EOC Index Shows Economic Weakness
- • Help Wanted - Not So Much
- • Existing Home Sales - A Resumption Of Decli...
- • Housing Starts - Bouncing Along The Bottom
- • You Can't Have A Jobless Recovery
- • NAHB Housing Index - No Signs Of Life
- • Commentary: A Default Would Devastate D.C.-...
- • Tax Reform -The Overlooked Solution
- • Empire Index - Harbinger Of Bad Things To C...
- • Consumers Believe It's Really A Recession
- • Inflation Index Flashes Warning
- • Bernanke Gives US Congress "The Finger"
- • Retail Sales & Jobless Claims
- • Why The Trade Deficit Is Warning Of Weak GD...
- • QE 3 - "To Infinity And Beyond"
- • No Fear - That's Not A Good Thing
- • More Fed Stimulus - As Expected
- • NFIB - No Jobs For You
- • Why Economists Don't Have A Clue About Jobs
- • Raising Taxes Won't Raise Revenue
- • Why The Jobs Report Is Worse Than It Seems
- • Why Oil Price Spikes "Feel" Worse
- • The Average Investor Doesn't Stand A Chance
- • How To Just Get By On Food Stamps
- • Jobless Still Jobless- Teens Hired For The ...
- • ISM Composite Index Showing Contraction
- • Outperforming The Market By 30% With No Ris...
- • ISM Report - Little To Be Excited About
- • Greenspan - QE Was A Failure
- ► June (38)
- • Market Failed At Resistance - Now What?
- • Full Employment - Hope vs Reality
- • Existing Home Sales Reflect Balance Sheet R...
- • Myths Of Retirement Planning
- • Implications Of Household Debt Deleveraging
- • LEI Warning Of Economic Stumbling Economy
- • Greece Ripple Effects Could Create US Finan...
- • Consumer Confidence Falls
- • Economy Failing Right On Time
- • New Home Starts - It's The Job Market Stupi...
- • Composite Price Index - Pushing Upper Limit...
- • Empire Composite Index Signals Economic Con...
- • PPI - Ratio Pointing To Economic Weakness
- • NFIB Employment Expectations Dispells 5% Ec...
- • Trade Deficit - A Roadmap To Economic Stren...
- • How Far Might A Bounce Go?
- • What Is Really Driving The Weakness In The ...
- • Obama Says He Has No Fear Of A Double Dip
- • NYSE Margin Debt
- • Beranke Speech - A Prelude To QE 3
- • Don't Get Suckered!
- • QE3 - Just A Matter Of Time
- • Job Report Shocker
- • Where's My Bottom
- • STA Risk Ratio Indicator Update - Still Cor...
- • ISM Composite Index Confirmed Market Top
- • Not The American Dream I Was Told About
- • Never Buy Stocks Again? Seriously?
- • Where Is The Confidence?
- • ISM Manufacturing Report Hits The Brakes
- • A Weaker Dollar Equals A Weaker Economy
- • Market Bounce
- • SF Bay Bridge - "Made In China"
- • Consumer Confidence At Recession Levels
- • The Decline Of The American "Saver"
- • Greece Fire - NY Post
- • The Breaking Point
- • Financial Profits Reduce Economic Prosperit...
- ► May (32)
- • Consumer Confidence Falls
- • Slide In Corporate Profits - Part II
- • Personal Incomes Still Feeding The Gas Tank
- • Change In Corporate Profits Leads To Market...
- • Economic Surprises - The Wrong Kind
- • New Orders For Durable Goods - Another Nail...
- • STA Buy/Sell Indicator Flashes Sell Signal
- • New Home Sales Not Inspiring
- • STA Economic Output Index Takes A Plunge
- • Debt To GDP And A Sustainable Level
- • The Virtuous Cycle Of The Economy
- • Economy Shifting Into Slower Gear
- • 7 Impossible Trading Rules To Follow
- • Housing Starts Fall - Again
- • Cyclical Bull Markets In Secular Bear Marke...
- • Empire Manufacturing Index
- • More Inflation For Consumers!
- • Headline Inflation Pushing Up
- • Weakness In GDP Continues (X-M)
- • Small Business Optimism Getting Worse!
- • Import Prices Flashing Warning Signal
- • Home Prices Following The Path To Destructi...
- • The Hyperinflation Index
- • Unemployment Rate Climbs To 9.0%
- • The Link Between Productivity & Jobs
- • Commodities Stumble
- • Jobless Claims Jump
- • ISM Composite Index vs S&P 500
- • ADP & ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Have A Lo...
- • Gallup: More Than Half Of Americans Still S...
- • "Let Them Eat IPads"
- • Have We Seen The Peak In This Business Cycl...
- ► April (22)
- • Fallacy Of The Falling Dollar
- • 1.8% GDP Not So Great!
- • Bernanke's Folly - High Oil Prices Are Flee...
- • Consumer Confidence - STILL Not So Confiden...
- • Tracking The Next Gasoline Induced Recessio...
- • New Home Sales Tick Up
- • STA Risk Ratio Throwing Off Warning Signal
- • The Philly Fed Survery Says....#&^%@!!
- • Americans Receive MORE In Government Handou...
- • NYSE Margin Debt Reaching Danger Zone
- • Housing Starts Not Starting
- • Pitchfork and Torches For The Rich
- • S&P Downgrades US Credit Outlook To Negativ...
- • Why You Can't Invest For The "Long Term"
- • Jobless Claims & PPI - Not Looking Better
- • Who Pays The Taxes!
- • Retail Sales Confirms Consumer Weakness
- • Gallop Poll Confirms NFIB Index - Economy S...
- • Small Business Still Not Optomistic
- • Trade Deficit Narrows - But Not In A Good W...
- • NYSE Margin Debt Climbs
- • High Commodity Prices Not The Result Of The...
- ► December (22)



