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Death Of The Gold Bull Market?
- Written by Lance Roberts | Monday, March 26, 2012
Is it time to start dumping your holdings in gold? Has the turning point finally arrived? According to the Financial Times this past week that answer is a “yes”.
"Investors are losing their enthusiasm for gold as signs of improvement in the US economy tempt them away from the traditional haven.
Interest in gold has surged in the past ten years, as prices have risen more than sevenfold from just $253 in 2001 to a peak of nearly $2,000 last year. But investors have become more wary about putting fresh money into the metal ... according to some bankers. Gold prices have already dropped 9 per cent since late February, on Thursday hitting a 10-week low of $1,627.68.”
Here is the key sentence:
“With the US economy showing signs of recovering and fears about the eurozone sovereign debt crisis easing, investors are putting their money into equities and other assets geared towards economic growth rather than havens such as gold. The US Mint's sales of American Eagle gold coins, seen as a good indicator ... fell in February and March to their lowest level since mid-2008, down about 70 per cent from last year. Open interest in gold futures on Comex in New York is close to a 2½-year low."
This is an important point because IF the economy has turned the corner, and the fears do ease, then gold, which has always been a “fear” based trade, will lose its appeal as an investment alternative. This is something that I have discussed many times in the past.
Gold has been chased over the last decade out of fear, greed and speculation. Gold, as a metal, has some commercial uses but no real underlying value as a currency. You can’t go to the store and buy things with it, it provides no income stream, and is solely a bet on someone willing to pay you more for it in the future.
There was a time when gold was a currency, or, it backed a currency. Gold has been used to bribe border guards to escape oppression and war. Gold is still coveted highly in some countries, like India and China, as a show of wealth and status. I am not discounting any of those current and historical issues.
However, when it comes to the United States, gold is a commodity and, as such, it is a speculative investment at best. As investors, therefore, the only VALUE it has is that we can buy it at one price and then sell it, hopefully, at a higher price. Therefore, we have to understand the principles, both fundamentally and technically, that drive the price.
Everything in the universe has an ebb and flow to it. Whether it is the seasons, life, economies, investments or the ocean – they all contain cycles both short and long. Gold, like the stock and bond markets, has short term (cyclical) cycles and long term (secular) cycles. What is important for investors, and where the Financial Times misses the mark, is understanding the difference between the two. The chart shows these cycles more clearly on an inflation adjusted basis.
The first note is the S&P 500. When you look at the index on an inflation adjusted basis you can see how dismal returns have been over the last 12 years. No wonder that individuals are giving up on the stock market.
During periods of geopolitical stress, rising inflation and weak stock markets - investors have turned to gold as a “safe haven”. During the secular bear market of the 60’s and 70’s as we battled with Vietnam, Iran, spiking inflation and oil prices and a weak market – gold was the investment of choice.
The chart shows the Dow versus interest rates, Fed funds, inflation, P/E’s and dividend yield. As you will see the period began with low interest rates, inflation and dividend yields and high valuations. By the end of the 70’s, after three nasty bear markets and a negative rate of return over an 18 year period, the inverse of each had been reached. As a consequence - gold had risen sharply during this period as an offset for all of those inherent risks.
Note: Pay attention to these points as there is a test in a moment.
As the 1980 Presidential election came into view - the world, as far as the average American was concerned, was a disaster. As Reagan entered office he embarked upon his plan to break the back of inflation, increase employment and improve the economy. Through massive deficit spending programs, tax reform, deregulation and policies – the economic underpinnings began to improve.
As shown in the chart – the economic revival period began with stocks traded at a trailing P/E near 9, dividend yields were approaching 6% and inflation and interest rates were beginning to fall reducing input costs and increasing profit margins. Those fundamentals, combined with the greatest increase in debt in history, set the stage for what was to come.
Over the next 18 years the world would experience the greatest financial market boom in history. The fundamental backdrop, combined with what appeared to be a booming economy, gave investors every incentive to move assets into the financial markets and out of the safety of gold. As a consequence gold prices plunged.
Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end. While the media and investors believed the good times would last forever - in 2000 we began talking and writing about the coming secular bear market.
At the end of 1999 stocks were trading at a whopping 42x earnings, dividend yields had plunged to under 2% and interest rates had fallen to levels not seen since the mid-60’s. The stage was once again set for the return of the next gold bull market.
From 2000 to present, gold has once again become an asset class of choice as the world has been engulfed in the secular bear market. The buildup of debt, destruction of savings, and lax credit and monetary policies has now met their inevitable conclusions. The problem is that today exponential credit creation can no longer be sustained. The process of a “credit contraction” which will continue to occur in fits and starts over a long period of time as consumers, and the government, are ultimately forced to deal with the leverage and deficits.
The good news is that process of "clearing" the market will eventually allow resources to be reallocated back towards more efficient uses and the economy will begin to grow again at more sustainable and organic rates.
Of course, after 12 years of the secular bear market and counting, all of this brings to mind the most important question. It is the same question that I get whenever I travel with my lovely wife and four wonderful kids. We generally have not gotten much further than the end of our block before a tiny voice from the back asks: “Are we there yet?”.
“Are we there yet?” How you answer the following questions should very much determine how you are invested with your hard earned savings today.
As the FT correctly stated, if the economy is indeed turning for the better then gold will have likely seen its peak. However, is that the case?
Let’s review where we are today.
- Are the ingredients necessary to launch the next great secular bull market in place today?
- Are interest rates and inflation in a position to boost the profitability of corporations in the future?
- Are valuations truly at a level - based on real trailing GAAP reported earnings - that would promote long term rises in stock prices?
- Based on the data points above does the current environment look more like 1962 or 1982?
- If dividends rise back to more normalized levels will increasing dividends, which reduces profits, help or hinder market returns in the future?
As we discussed this past week in our post “The Fly In Ryan’s Budget Ointment” the current economy requires $4 of debt for every $1 of GDP.
“The time to implement austerity measures is when you are running a budget surplus and are close to full employment. That time was two Administrations ago when the economy would have slowed but could have absorbed and adjusted to the measures. However, when things are good, no one wants to ‘fix what isn't broken’.
The problem today is that with a high dependency on government support, high unemployment and near record budget deficits implementing austerity measures will only deter future economic growth, which is dependent on the very things that are in need of being ‘fixed’".
- Therefore, since increasing debt levels have financed economic growth, including the real estate market, over the past 30 years what is the future going to look like?
My views on the economic future are not bight and happy ones. For myself I cannot reconcile how we can honestly expect to return to 4% growth in the economy, and consequently a booming stock market, when the ingredients required to acheive that growth are simply not available. This point doesn’t even include the impact of the 70+ million baby boomers moving into retirement over the next 10 years.
The Rumor Of Gold’s Death Is Greatly Exaggerated
As you know I am not a “Gold Bug”. I don’t have a stash of gold bullion sitting in a vault, a bunker full of guns, ammo and c-rations awaiting the end of civilization as we know it. I am not bashing those that do – it is just the simple reality that if the world collapses overnight, which it won’t, I have the personal skills, knowledge and physical ability to obtain what I need. Unless, of course, zombies are involved – then you just need to surround your house with treadmills.
In the real world, where we must actually live and function, it is much more important to allocate capital to those areas where money can be made. Our job, yours and mine, is to allocate capital in a manner to ensure that the money we have SAVED grows at a rate to sufficient to keep the future purchasing power parity of those dollars the same in the future. Period.
The problem with the FT article is that it extrapolates a short term correction into a change of economic and fundamental trends. Nothing could be further from the truth. However, this is the continued problem with the myopic analysis by the media that is looking for the next headline.
The reality is quite different. In the “Technically Speaking” section of the August 26, 2011 newsletter we stated:
“Should I Buy Gold Now? In a one word answer…Are you kidding me – Gold has never been this overbought before and if you ever want to be the poster child of buying at the top – this is it.
Okay, not really a one word answer but here is my point. Gold is currently in what is known as a ‘Parabolic Spike’. These do not end well typically as it represents a ‘panic’ buying spree.
Therefore, if you currently OWN gold I would recommend beginning to take some profits in it.”
The first chart is the one from that newsletter. The second chart is the very same chart as above but updated to take into account the recent market action in Gold over the past 7 months.
While the swings have been a bit broader than I originally expected the pattern has played out extremely closely.
Today, gold has worked off the extreme overbought condition from last summer. With gold currently very oversold on many metrics, and sitting on the long term trend line support, the risk/reward of owning gold here is favorable.
More importantly, the catalysts necessary to push buyers into gold are still very prevalent. The crisis in the Eurozone, while temporarily suppressed by a couple of trillion Euros of injections, has not been solved – merely postponed.
Domestically, the economy here has been supported by the warmest winter in 65 years which as skewed the underlying economic reports that adjust for seasonal conditions. We pointed this out in our post last week on “LEI – Slower Growth Of Growth”
“We can find further confirmation of weakness in the overall economy if we look at the ratio between the Conference Board's coincident and lagging indicators. This acts like a book-to-bill ratio for GDP. Currently, it is off of its peak by about 2% and at levels that have normally coincided with recessions in the economy.
While the current month to month data points are still indicative of growth - the concern is strength of that growth. With the underlying economy fragile and very susceptible to external shocks it will not take much to create a retrenchment. If this was truly not the case the Fed would not be holding the line at zero interest rates and floating hopes of continued asset purchases (QE) in the future.
Now with China slowing more rapidly than expected, and Europe continuing to slide, the ability for the U.S. to withstand that drag indefinitely is negligible. As the seasonal weather patterns return to normal ranges, along with the data skews, we will get a much better picture about where the economy currently stands. My bet is that the mainstream media is going to ‘unexpectedly’ disappointed”
Time To Buy Gold?
I have done my best today to lay out the case that gold, both technically and fundamentally, are in the right place for continued ownership, as well as, adding to existing or implementing new positions.
I am not recommending that you buy gold – that is a matter of personal choice and how you answered the personal self-test above. However, my personal belief is that gold has not lost its appeal just yet. With plenty of risks still prevalent, both globally and domestically, the “fear” trade is far from over. The psychological factors combined with the technical underpinnings are supportive of the fundamental overlay.
At some point in the future the economy WILL begin a strong and lasting recovery. Things will get better and gold will plunge in price. This is why I recommend owning investments in gold that can be liquidated at market price with a click of a button. Physical gold will be nearly impossible to liquidate when the panic sets in.
Of course, if zombies do show up, none of this really matters.
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CNBC: My Take On Employment Data
This past Friday I visited with Bill Griffith, Maria Bartiromo and Rick Santelli on CNBC to discuss my views on the latest employment report. My take is somewhat basic in regards to the data - on a macro level the jobs that are being created are temporary, low paying, jobs that do not create long term sustainabilty for economic growth.
As I stated in "Employment: The Macro Trends":
This problem with part-time employment is that it does not increase economic prosperity. Part-time employment, as discussed in the "Labor Hoarding Effect," has been an aggressively used tool by corporations to suppress wage growth, reduce overhead costs and increase profitability. The problem is that with the Affordable Care Act gearing up to start in 2014 even more businesses will resort to part-time employment to reduce the increased health care tax burden. I stated that:
"The issue of 'labor hoarding' is an important phenomenon that is likely obscuring the real weakness in the underlying economy. Without an increase in the demand part of the equation businesses are likely to continue resorting to further productivity increases to stretch the current labor force farther to protect profitability. However, as we may currently be witnessing, businesses may be reaching the limits of what they can do to continue increasing profits at the bottom line while revenue declines at the top. The implications for the financial markets going forward are clearly negative."
There has been little improvement in the number of people working part-time for economic reasons. However, as I stated, such weak employment leads to dependence of government subsidies which explains the rise in disability claims and food stamp participation as individuals seek to make ends meet.
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- • Trade Defict - Confirming Weaker Q1 GDP
- • The Clock Is Ticking On The Next Eurozone C...
- • Initial Sell Signal In - Confirmation Is Li...
- • NFIB - Optimistic But Still At Recessionary...
- • Economic Trends Don't Paint A Robust Pictur...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - Dr. Lacy ...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - David Ros...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - Dr. Woody...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - Niall Fer...
- • 3 Likely Triggers Of The Next Recession
- • ISM Report Bucking The Trend
- ► April (19)
- • The "Consumption Dysfunction" Continues
- • Q1 GDP - Weaker Than Expected
- • Social Security Has A Real Problem - Employ...
- • Decline In Durable Goods Indicative Of Broa...
- • Impatience Will Lead To Our Demise
- • Market Cracks Support - Correction Gets Ser...
- • LEI - Slower Growth Of The Growth Update
- • Philly Fed Points To Weaker Profits Ahead
- • Mother Nature's Bail Out Coming To An End
- • 10 More Years Of Low Returns
- • 5 Mistakes That Will Crush Your Retirement ...
- • Earnings Likely To Be "Better Than Expected...
- • Market Hits Support - Now What?
- • The Return Of Economic Weakness
- • The Correction Has Started
- • The "Real" Employment Report - March 2012
- • Now The Media Is Hooked On QE Crack
- • Wave 5 Of The Cyclical Bull Market
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Signs Of Recovery?
- ► March (24)
- • The Consumption Dysfunction
- • WTF! Chart Of The Day
- • An Update On Margin Debt
- • Hyperinflation Isn't A Threat
- • Surprise! Jobs Drive Consumer Confidence
- • Death Of The Gold Bull Market?
- • Housing And The Elusive Recovery
- • LEI - Slower Growth Of The Growth
- • The Long Road Ahead
- • The "Fly" In Ryan's Budget Ointment
- • 1.8 Million Jobs Lost In 2012
- • Why 4% GDP Will Remain Elusive
- • The Stretching Of Limits
- • Rising Costs And Profit Margins
- • Retail Sales - A Lot About Weather
- • Correction: There Has Been No Correction
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Ceridian-UCLA PCI
- • NFIB - Index Up But Internals Weaken
- • Employment Report And The Market
- • Is The Investing Game Rigged?
- • OIl Prices Will Hurt The Consumer
- • Has The Correction Started?
- • The Immediacy Trap
- • 1st Quarter GDP To Be Much Weaker
- ► February (22)
- • Oil Prices WILL Slow The Economy (Revised)
- • Don't Feed The Animals
- • The Housing Recovery In One Index
- • Consumer Sentiment Responds To Market Rally
- • The Straw That Potentially Breaks The Camel...
- • Media Headlines Will Lead You To Ruin
- • Philly Fed Future Activity Points To Weakne...
- • Housing Headlines Improve - Reality Doesn't
- • The "Real" American Dream
- • Industrial Production - The Revival May Hav...
- • Consumer Confidence Has Everything To Do Wi...
- • NFIB - Optimistic But Still In The Foxhole
- • Financial Stress Composite Rising
- • Trade Data Trends Signal Weakness Ahead
- • Consumer Credit And The American Conundrum
- • Is Now The Time To Jump In?
- • Gold - The Technical Rundown
- • Bringing The NILF Mystery To Light
- • Gallop Points To Weaker Employment Report T...
- • Earning Less - Why The Poor Get Poorer
- • ISM - Misses Expectations
- • ADP Signals Weak Job Report Friday
- ► January (23)
- • Chicago ISM - Has The Recovery Peaked?
- • Home Prices Fall Further
- • PCE Points To Weaker GDP Ahead
- • Q4 GDP - "Prognosis Still Negative"
- • Fed Meeting - Reconciling A Weak Economy
- • Why Home Prices Have Much Further To Fall
- • IMF Cuts Global Forecast - US Won't Dodge T...
- • Complacency Risk Is High
- • Prices Paid And Coming Earnings Weakness
- • Housing Is Not Affordable
- • Industrial Production Confirming Changes To...
- • Patiently Waiting For The Golden Cross
- • Consumer Sentiment Rises - Still In Recessi...
- • Why QE3 Won't Help "Average Joe"
- • Industrial Production May Be About To Weake...
- • Consumer Spending May Dissapoint
- • NFIB - Small Businesses More Optimistic
- • Markets Throw Off A Buy Signal
- • The Real Employment Situation Report For De...
- • Improvement In Employment - At Least For No...
- • Markets Getting Over Bought / Over Bullish
- • Market Rallies To Resistance - Now What?
- • ISM & Construction Spending - Modest Improv...
- ► December (19)
- ► 2011 (277)
- ► December (22)
- • 2012 Outlook - Anything Other Than The Apoc...
- • Q3 GDP - "Prognosis Negative"
- • The Eurozone Is Saved?
- • Market Rally To Nowhere
- • Housing Starts Up - Patient Still Critical
- • NAHB Housing Market Index
- • A Little Followed Indicator Hints At Recess...
- • Inflation Pressures Rising In The Core
- • Economic Deluge - Economy Shows Some Positi...
- • Is The Gold Run Over?
- • Import Prices Jump - Recession Odds Increas...
- • NFIB - Bounce Off The Bottom
- • No Holiday Cheer In Retail Sales
- • A Million Dollars Ain't What It Used To Be
- • STA RIsk Ratio Turns Up - We've Seen This B...
- • Consumer Sentiment Ticks Up
- • What Are Initial Claims Not Telling Us?
- • Is Consumer Spending Really Surging?
- • Could Gasoline Prices Trigger A Recession
- • Market Rallies Into EU Meeting
- • ISM Composite Index Ticks Up
- • The Real Employment Situation Report
- ► November (29)
- • Economic Data - Headlines Bullish
- • Markets Surge As World Engages In Global Ba...
- • Was That The Consumer's Last Gasp?
- • Housing - The Margin Effect
- • Economic "Run Down" - Weakness Emerges
- • GDP - Revised Down
- • Is Market Warning Of The Next Lehman Event?
- • EOCI Index Improves - Is It All Clear?
- • Philly Fed Survey - Predicting A Peak In Ea...
- • US Debt To GDP Now 98.9% And Rising
- • Inflation - A Continued Problem For Consume...
- • Economy Shows Tenative Signs Of Improvement
- • Debate - Is US Becoming Japan
- • Presidential And Decennial Cycles - What Ab...
- • Consumer Sentiment Driven By Market Rally
- • Net Export Prices Turn Down
- • What "Average Joe" Really Thinks
- • Blood Bath As Italy Faces Crisis
- • Are Oil Prices Confirming ECRI Recession Ca...
- • Oil Price Spike Update
- • No Joy In NFIB Report
- • Market Vs Economic Cycles And Sector Rotati...
- • Employment - The Good, Bad & Ugly
- • ISM Non-Manufacturing Index - Not Adding Up
- • Productivity Up - Costs Down
- • Fed's Outlook Much Weaker Than Reported
- • Food Stamp Usage Sets New Record
- • Fed Trapped By Inflation
- • Manufacturing Not Showing GDP Strength
- ► October (24)
- • STA Risk Ratio Turns Up
- • Buy Signal Is In - But Move Slowly
- • Recession Still Likely Despite Bump In GDP
- • A Haircut, Boost and Drop
- • New Homes Sales - Glued To The Bottom
- • Consumer Is Key To Next Recession
- • Case-Shiller 20-City Index Flat As HARP Wil...
- • CFNAI - Better But Still Negative
- • Understanding Federal Debt: Point - Counter...
- • Temporary Bounce In Philly Fed Confirmed By...
- • Inflation Rises Along With Housing Hopes
- • Snipe Hunting In The Housing Market
- • Der Spiegel is Der Wrong
- • Inventories, Sentiment and Sales - Behind T...
- • The Empire Is Tarnished
- • A JOLT To The System
- • NFIB and PCI - More Signs Of Weakness
- • 1929-45 Vs Today - Following The Same Path
- • Unemployment Report Worse Than It Looks
- • Bearish Sentiment Abounds
- • ISM Composite Index - Been Here Before
- • Yield Spread Confirming Recession Call
- • Market Breaks Its Neck
- • ISM Manufacturing Index - Backlog Drawdown ...
- ► September (34)
- • 5 Months Down - Time For A Bounce?
- • Economic Trifecta - But No Winners
- • Economy Upticks & Jobless Claims Fall
- • Gallup - Economic Confidence Slides
- • Can Margin Debt Give Us A Clue On Market Di...
- • Euro Tarp - Why It Will Be A Screaming Fail...
- • Consumer Doldrums
- • Chicago Fed National Activity "Slowing Down...
- • End Of Week Technical Wrap Up
- • The Yield Spread Is Lying About The Coming ...
- • Leading Indicators Predict Weaker Economy
- • Why The Fed's "Silver Bullet" Won't Kill Th...
- • Fed Buy's Paltry $ 400 Billion - Need A Hug...
- • Market Weak - Waiting On The Fed
- • Housing Still A Drag
- • Consumer Confidence Remains At Lowest Level...
- • Coordinated Central Bank Intervention Creat...
- • Philly Fed Survey - Predicting Recession
- • CPI Rises - Inflation Hits Home
- • Consumers Tapping Out Savings To Spend
- • PPI - Pushing A Slowdown
- • NFIB Confidence Slides Lower
- • Export Prices Still A Negative For The Econ...
- • The Great American Economic Lie
- • High Yield Spread Signaling Recession
- • The Economy Weakens More
- • Obama's $ 400 Billion For Jobs And Counting
- • Trade Deficit - Points To Possible Uptick I...
- • Another Domino Falls For The Market
- • Corporate Profits Are In Trouble
- • Are Stocks Undervalued?
- • European Markets Down Sharply
- • Jobs - What Jobs?
- • Why Unemployment Is About To Surge
- ► August (38)
- • Market Bounce OR New Bull Market
- • Chicago ISM Confirms Weakness
- • Consumer Confidence Collapses - Again
- • Personal Incomes Still Under Pressure
- • Annotated Bernanke Speech - The Elusive Eco...
- • Corporate Profits - Hinting At Recession
- • GDP - Revised Down
- • The Deficit Spending Trap
- • Will Ben Go For Another Round Of QE?
- • Boomers - Are Going To Be A Real Drag
- • No Job = No New House
- • Beware Of Long Term Investing Advice
- • Technical Market Overview
- • EOCI Index Now At Recession Levels
- • Composite Inflation Index Warning Of Slower...
- • 7 Things That Make Me Worried
- • The Difference Between "WHAT" and "WHEN"
- • Empire Fed Index - 3 Strikes You're Out
- • Rosenberg On The Economy
- • Consumer Confidence Collapses
- • Trade Deficit Points To Sub-1% 2nd Qtr GDP
- • 7 Things My Mom Taught Me About Investing
- • Blood In The Streets - Part II
- • Ceridian UCLA Consumer Pulse - Going Flatli...
- • Market Bounce - Was It Stealth QE3?
- • FOMC Meeting Ends - No Change To Stance
- • NFIB Survey Says...Higher Taxes Won't Work
- • Panic Attack! Markets Extremely Oversold
- • Employment Report Less Than Meets The Eye
- • Market Trashed Again! Panic Hits.
- • Recession Almost A Certainty
- • QE 3 Coming - But Won't Save The Economy
- • Yield Curves & The Fed Model
- • ISM Composite Index - Continues Decline
- • Market Trashed - What Now?
- • Personal Income Under Pressure
- • ISM - Clinging On For Dear Life
- • Debt Deal - A Complete Failure
- ► July (38)
- • We Are All Guessing
- • Dismal Economic Numbers
- • 10 Lessons Learned From Poker
- • STA Risk Ratio - Still On Sell Signal
- • GDP - 2nd Quarter Estimate
- • Consumer Un-Confidence
- • Are We Headed For A Second Recession? Upda...
- • Chicago Fed National Activity Index Confirm...
- • Decline In Profits Leads Index
- • EOC Index Shows Economic Weakness
- • Help Wanted - Not So Much
- • Existing Home Sales - A Resumption Of Decli...
- • Housing Starts - Bouncing Along The Bottom
- • You Can't Have A Jobless Recovery
- • NAHB Housing Index - No Signs Of Life
- • Commentary: A Default Would Devastate D.C.-...
- • Tax Reform -The Overlooked Solution
- • Empire Index - Harbinger Of Bad Things To C...
- • Consumers Believe It's Really A Recession
- • Inflation Index Flashes Warning
- • Bernanke Gives US Congress "The Finger"
- • Retail Sales & Jobless Claims
- • Why The Trade Deficit Is Warning Of Weak GD...
- • QE 3 - "To Infinity And Beyond"
- • No Fear - That's Not A Good Thing
- • More Fed Stimulus - As Expected
- • NFIB - No Jobs For You
- • Why Economists Don't Have A Clue About Jobs
- • Raising Taxes Won't Raise Revenue
- • Why The Jobs Report Is Worse Than It Seems
- • Why Oil Price Spikes "Feel" Worse
- • The Average Investor Doesn't Stand A Chance
- • How To Just Get By On Food Stamps
- • Jobless Still Jobless- Teens Hired For The ...
- • ISM Composite Index Showing Contraction
- • Outperforming The Market By 30% With No Ris...
- • ISM Report - Little To Be Excited About
- • Greenspan - QE Was A Failure
- ► June (38)
- • Market Failed At Resistance - Now What?
- • Full Employment - Hope vs Reality
- • Existing Home Sales Reflect Balance Sheet R...
- • Myths Of Retirement Planning
- • Implications Of Household Debt Deleveraging
- • LEI Warning Of Economic Stumbling Economy
- • Greece Ripple Effects Could Create US Finan...
- • Consumer Confidence Falls
- • Economy Failing Right On Time
- • New Home Starts - It's The Job Market Stupi...
- • Composite Price Index - Pushing Upper Limit...
- • Empire Composite Index Signals Economic Con...
- • PPI - Ratio Pointing To Economic Weakness
- • NFIB Employment Expectations Dispells 5% Ec...
- • Trade Deficit - A Roadmap To Economic Stren...
- • How Far Might A Bounce Go?
- • What Is Really Driving The Weakness In The ...
- • Obama Says He Has No Fear Of A Double Dip
- • NYSE Margin Debt
- • Beranke Speech - A Prelude To QE 3
- • Don't Get Suckered!
- • QE3 - Just A Matter Of Time
- • Job Report Shocker
- • Where's My Bottom
- • STA Risk Ratio Indicator Update - Still Cor...
- • ISM Composite Index Confirmed Market Top
- • Not The American Dream I Was Told About
- • Never Buy Stocks Again? Seriously?
- • Where Is The Confidence?
- • ISM Manufacturing Report Hits The Brakes
- • A Weaker Dollar Equals A Weaker Economy
- • Market Bounce
- • SF Bay Bridge - "Made In China"
- • Consumer Confidence At Recession Levels
- • The Decline Of The American "Saver"
- • Greece Fire - NY Post
- • The Breaking Point
- • Financial Profits Reduce Economic Prosperit...
- ► May (32)
- • Consumer Confidence Falls
- • Slide In Corporate Profits - Part II
- • Personal Incomes Still Feeding The Gas Tank
- • Change In Corporate Profits Leads To Market...
- • Economic Surprises - The Wrong Kind
- • New Orders For Durable Goods - Another Nail...
- • STA Buy/Sell Indicator Flashes Sell Signal
- • New Home Sales Not Inspiring
- • STA Economic Output Index Takes A Plunge
- • Debt To GDP And A Sustainable Level
- • The Virtuous Cycle Of The Economy
- • Economy Shifting Into Slower Gear
- • 7 Impossible Trading Rules To Follow
- • Housing Starts Fall - Again
- • Cyclical Bull Markets In Secular Bear Marke...
- • Empire Manufacturing Index
- • More Inflation For Consumers!
- • Headline Inflation Pushing Up
- • Weakness In GDP Continues (X-M)
- • Small Business Optimism Getting Worse!
- • Import Prices Flashing Warning Signal
- • Home Prices Following The Path To Destructi...
- • The Hyperinflation Index
- • Unemployment Rate Climbs To 9.0%
- • The Link Between Productivity & Jobs
- • Commodities Stumble
- • Jobless Claims Jump
- • ISM Composite Index vs S&P 500
- • ADP & ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Have A Lo...
- • Gallup: More Than Half Of Americans Still S...
- • "Let Them Eat IPads"
- • Have We Seen The Peak In This Business Cycl...
- ► April (22)
- • Fallacy Of The Falling Dollar
- • 1.8% GDP Not So Great!
- • Bernanke's Folly - High Oil Prices Are Flee...
- • Consumer Confidence - STILL Not So Confiden...
- • Tracking The Next Gasoline Induced Recessio...
- • New Home Sales Tick Up
- • STA Risk Ratio Throwing Off Warning Signal
- • The Philly Fed Survery Says....#&^%@!!
- • Americans Receive MORE In Government Handou...
- • NYSE Margin Debt Reaching Danger Zone
- • Housing Starts Not Starting
- • Pitchfork and Torches For The Rich
- • S&P Downgrades US Credit Outlook To Negativ...
- • Why You Can't Invest For The "Long Term"
- • Jobless Claims & PPI - Not Looking Better
- • Who Pays The Taxes!
- • Retail Sales Confirms Consumer Weakness
- • Gallop Poll Confirms NFIB Index - Economy S...
- • Small Business Still Not Optomistic
- • Trade Deficit Narrows - But Not In A Good W...
- • NYSE Margin Debt Climbs
- • High Commodity Prices Not The Result Of The...
- ► December (22)




