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NFIB: Optimism Improves But Don't Get Too Excited
- Written by Lance Roberts | Tuesday, June 11, 2013
The latest release of the National Federation of Independent Business small business survey showed an improvement in the latest reading to 94.4 up from 92.1 last month. Overall, the readings were positive and this is the second strongest overall reading of the recovery since 2009.
The survey showed that 8 of the 10 internal components posted monthly gains which were led by increases in economic expectations and a gain for sales expectations. The one negative for the month, unfortunately, was hiring...
Is The Eurozone Crisis Set To Flare Up?
- Written by Lance Roberts | Monday, June 10, 2013
I have written in the past that all is not solved in the Euro-zone. In fact, despite the ongoing jawboning from the ECB that they stand ready to "do anything," in reality they have done little to this point other than just talk. While that has worked to a large degree to suppress rising interest rates on debt burdened Euro-zone countries there has been no progress on the "unification" of the Euro-zone or a resolution to its burgeoning debt problems. At the end of February I wrote "Get Ready For A...
Employment - The Macro Trends
- Written by Lance Roberts | Friday, June 07, 2013
The May jobs report came in better than expected at 175,000 jobs with the labor force ticking up slightly from the lowest levels since 1979. With the markets deeply oversold on a daily basis the report provide the catalyst necessary for traders to return to the stock market. However, what we need to know from an economic perspective, as well as a long term investment view, is what does 175,000 jobs actually mean? Putting economic data into context gives us a much better picture of where the overall...
4 Tools Of Corporate Profitability & The Economic Consequences
- Written by Lance Roberts | Thursday, June 06, 2013
Recently, I wrote an article discussing the "Truth About Wall Street Analysts" and the inherent conflict between Wall Street and individual investors. There is also another group of individuals who are also just as conflicted - corporate executives. Today, more than ever, corporate executives are compensated by stock options, and other stock based compensation, which are tied to rising stock prices. There are billions at stake in many cases and the game of "beat the Wall Street estimate" is critical...
The Truth About Wall Street Analysts & Why You Need Independence
- Written by Lance Roberts | Tuesday, June 04, 2013
Turn on financial television or pick up a financially related magazine or newspaper and you will hear or read about what some stock analyst from some major Wall Street brokerage has to say about the markets or a particular company. For the average person, and for most financial advisors, this information as taken as "fact" and is used as basis for portfolio investment decisions. But why wouldn't you? After all Carl Gugasian of Dewey, Cheatham & Howe just rated Bianchi Corp. a "Strong Buy." That...
The Most Important Economic Number
- Written by Lance Roberts | Monday, June 03, 2013
Over this past weekend Russ Koesterich, CFA, who is the iShares Global Chief Investment Strategist, penned an article entitled "The Most Important (And Widely Ignored) Economic Number" wherein he states:
"While economic numbers like GDP or the monthly non-farm payroll report typically garner the headlines, the most useful statistic in my opinion– the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) – often goes ignored by investors and the press."
Russ is correct. The Chicago Fed National Activity...
3 Reasons For Higher Market Highs
- Written by Lance Roberts | Thursday, May 30, 2013
Howard Marks once wrote:
“Resisting – and thereby achieving success as a contrarian – isn’t easy. Things combine to make it difficult; including natural herd tendencies and the pain imposed by being out of step, since momentum invariably makes pro-cyclical actions look correct for a while. (That’s why it’s essential to remember that “being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong.”)
Given the uncertain nature of the future, and thus the difficulty of being confident your...
Consumer Confidence - Was It Really That Good?
- Written by Lance Roberts | Wednesday, May 29, 2013
It is interesting to watch mainstream analysts, and journalists, grab for headlines to support the bullish rhetoric without actually doing some underlying research. As we discussed in "5 Questions Every Market Bull Should Answer" the drive by the markets higher is not being driven by fundamental improvements but almost solely by the Federal Reserve interventions. Of course, in the famous words of Jerry Seinfeld, "...not that there is nothing wrong with that" as long as you understand the inherent risks...
Evaluating 3 Bullish Arguments
- Written by Lance Roberts | Tuesday, May 28, 2013
These are indeed interesting times that we live in. As the markets elevate higher on the back of the global central bank interventions it is important to keep in context the historical tendencies of the markets over time. It is not uncommon at major market peaks to see "irrational exuberance" begin to grip the markets. In March of 2000, as foreign capital inflows drove markets higher, Jim Cramer came out with his 10 must own stocks for the next decade. By the end of 2002, of the few that were still in...
The Fed's Real Worry - A Pick Up In Deflation
- Written by Lance Roberts | Friday, May 24, 2013
In several of my recent missives I have made several references to the wave of deflationary pressures that are currently encircling the globe.
In "Japan: A Few Thoughts On The Crash" I stated:
"The unintended consequence of such actions, as we are witnessing in the U.S. currently, is the ongoing battle with deflationary pressures. The lower interest rates goes the less economic return that can be generated. An ultra-low interest rate environment, contrary to mainstream thought, has a negative...
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